Dear Readers,
I received a few letters asking about an on-line video
regarding biased dice. After viewing the videos, I asked our team of four
experts to provide their opinion. Three of the experts asked hold academic
degrees in science and or math. Because we feel that this issue of bias dice
has been thoroughly represented by Dice Setter our position remains the
same as previously published. We will not make further comment other than to
say upon reviewing the videos, all of our experts agreed, independently, that
the presenter of video did not adhere to the Scientific Method for the
experiment. Numerous flaws were noted and the team unanimously agreed that
there could be no useable data in support of the hypothesis for bias dice.
It is not the intention of Dice Setter to refute the video further. It will not be promoted for reasons
explained here.
If you feel that you are not being dealt a fair game, the
choice to play or not play is yours. Casinos in Nevada are regulated.
Ed Jones
From Playing 4 Keeps
a Newsletter for Winners, the Professor and his dog Mousse share
comments in
this contribution.
Ask
My Dog Mousse Part 1 of 3
Mousse,
What
do you think about betting $32 across and working the come out roll?
Thanks,
Bubba
Hey Bubba,
I think that I do not
like the concept. What do you think about losing $32 on a come out seven?
Let’s say you do take a hit on the come out and now down $32 you set up for
another for another play with $32 and risk facing another seven on the come
out. You do not explain how you intend to play the $32 across which is big
piece of the puzzle. It makes difficult for me to give you a complete answer
here. Man’s got’ a have a plan.
Anyway, if you survive
the second come out you have to win a minimum of four place bets and two of
them have to be either 4 or 10 just to be back to even. I am not saying that
it can’t be done Bubba. I am saying I do not like the concept of having to risk $64
just to be even?
You may be thinking, and
you should be if you are not, that every time the dice are rolled the odds are
exactly the same for the appearance of a seven. Here’s the math. 45% of Pass
Line wins are going to come on naturals 7 or 11; 75% of those naturals are
going to come on Winner Sevens; and, Winner Sevens are going to constitute
just over 33% of all wins. You’d be better off betting your $32 on the Pass
Line. Only pays even money, but a hell of a lot less vig, meaning less
exposure. Plus, after three consecutive wins on a come out, it is possible for
you to have won $224 in profit compare that to $27 from a 4/10 place bet with
three wins.
Hope this helps,
Mousse
PS I had to pull the
math stuff from the Professor’s playbook. I am, after all, just a dog.
Playbook
Ask My Dog Mousse Part
2
Bubba’s reply to Mousse’s
answer.
Hey Mousse,
I appreciate your input.
For a dog I think you are pretty smart!
I will play $32 across on
every come out roll on each shooter. But, will only play the Come Out once on
each shooter if he/she nails me with a 7. I won't let someone who rolls 2 or 3
sevens in a row beat me. As you know sometimes a shooter will do that. If I
get beat on the Come Out with a 7, I’ll then let the shooter set a point
before I get back out. When I do I’ll just play 3 numbers, never playing the
point number. If the number set is an inside number I play the inside but not
the point. If the number is a outside number say a 4 or 10, I play the outside
numbers, If it’s a 4, I place the 5,9,10 hoping to get two or 3 hits, to get
most of my $32 I lost when the shooter rolled a 7.
My theory on dice is for
every number thrown puts the shooter closer to a 7 being rolled. So, if I am
trying to get just two hits, I had better be out their trying to get a hit on
the first number that hits the table.
Here are examples of a
dice rolls I charted in K.C. last Wednesday.
|
Rolls |
Out Come |
Net Result |
|
6,
8, 4, 7 out |
Won $14 |
$14 |
|
4,
11, 10, 7 out |
Won $18 |
$32 |
|
10,
10, 11, 10, 8, 8, 6, 8, 4, 7 |
Won $18 |
$50 |
|
10,
6, 11, 8, 7 out |
Lost <$11> |
$39 |
|
8,
8, 11, 9, 9, 6, 8, 4, 8, 10, 9, 8, 4, 8, 7 out |
Won $14 |
$53 |
Play by Play Commentary by Bubba
|
6-8-4-7 - Lousy roll, but I won $7 on the 6 rolled and $7 on the 6
rolled.
|
|
4-11-10-7 - Another bad roll, but won 9 and 9 then came down.
|
|
10-10-11-10-4-10-8-8-6-8-4-7 - A nice roll won 9 on 1st 10, then placed
the 4,5,9, and won 9 more on the 4.
|
|
10-6-11-8-7 - This roll I won 9 on the 10 placed the 4,5,9, I didn't get
the 2nd hit. Won $9 lost $20. $11 net loss on the play.
|
|
8-8-11-9-9-6-8-4-8-10-9-8-4-8-7 - Won 7 on 1st 8 won 7 on the 9. So got
back $14 of the $11 I lost on previous shooter. This roll was my roll. I
figure I am the best shooter at table, so I am trying to get the
confidence to play my self for more then just two hits.
|
I am trying
to understand the math you gave me. 45% of Pass Line wins will be a 7. So 55%
won't. Is that correct? So, then I have almost a 50% chance of the shooter
rolling another number not the 7 for a win? Am I correct on that?
You said 75% of those naturals are going to come on winner sevens. I
don't
understand that. Why not 100% instead of 75% You said winner 7's are going to
constitute just over 33% of all wins. If that's the case then 67% of all wins
would be someone making their point. (Wouldn't this be good for me who is
going to get just two hits?) Bubba
Bubba’s email is answered by
the Professor. Mousse was out chasing rabbits.
Hello Bubba,
Mousse says
thanks you for the compliment, but this second email is a little over his head so
I am stepping in. After all he is just a rabbit chasing dog.
Most place
betters do have some method to their play and most do not have a winning
strategy. Place betting is an aggressive play because of the true odds. When
you factor in the vig, the bets really become a question of why take the risk
for the return.
Okay, I do not
like place betting because it is an up hill battle as Mousse described.
However, you explain a play that can make some cents. (sic)
What separates
my play from the heard is that I recognized the metaphysical side to the game.
Want a quick lesson, study the games Tim Tebow has played since becoming the
starting quarterback. All the his games, win or lose, exhibit the metaphysical side
of what I teach for the casino games. This is the reason the “God factor" has
43% of football fans thinking somehow divine intervention is on Tebow’s team.
If they can’t see it, they can’t explain it, so it must be something bigger
than life. In short it sums up my teaching too, the unseen dimension. Side
tracking here Bubba, but Tebow is the hottest sports topic and best real time
example I can share with you. I will be working up an article to address this
phenomena and how it relates to gaming in one of my P4K newsletters to come.
Some things
for you to think about.
-
Observe your games before entering.
- If
you observe an absence of 7 and 11 on the come out that is a good sign.
- If
you see players holding the dice longer than random, that is a good sign.
Your examples below are mostly not playable. Glad you profited. Not a
criticism, just my opinion after 20 years at the table.
-
You have to recognize those times when your investments have a better chance
of winning based on the energy of the game. A shooter’s consistent results
are necessary for a playable game.
- In
other words, you have to see favorable conditions in order to take the
bigger risk.
-
Note, as Mousse was saying, you are risking $32 to win $14 to $18. That is
more than a one for two payout on average. True odds for the 6/8 are 6:5 for example.
Win 6 bet 5. Factor in the odds and vig and your play appears more like a
lay bet without the advantage. Would you walk blindfolded across Las Vegas
Boulevard on a one for two bet on a Saturday night?
-
Nope. If you really had to take a bet like that you would wait for the time
with the least
amount of traffic. You would do your research and cross the street
during favorable conditions.
-
Craps is a game and every player is entitled to play their way, win or lose.
I play for the thrill and fun. When I play right I get to win money on top
of the thrill and fun.
My suggestion
for disciplined play:
-
Follow my suggestion of playing across when conditions are favorable.
-
When 7 and 11 are out of probability and not showing on the come out roll,
having your $32 working would be okay. You are the only craps player in my
17 years of teaching that has recognized what you said below, “one more roll
closer to the seven out”. Very profound.
-
Okay, set the bet up, take your two wins and come down. Note that I said
come down not call off. The box man does not like money left on the layout
after the 7-out.
-
Down side is you are working the boys overtime with your set ups and take
downs. At some point in the game you have to take care of the boys (toke)
and that chews at your meager profits and another reason I do not care for
this play. You can probably profit as much or more using one of the Don’t
Pass plays in my playbook. I think I have one of them on the web site now as
play of the month. Risk less to win more – that’s my motto.
-
Continuing to support your play, I suggest adding a progression so as to win
more money as you are adding chips to the rack.
-
This is difficult with six bets. You have to be able to press all the bets
at the same time. At least my opinion. Others may say press trending numbers
or build it up as you win. I like a stayed method with my style of play, not
hither-tether.
-
Figure if you are winning you could be on a table that is performing out of
probability. If it were me, I’d want to take advantage of it. Leveraging up
six bets is laboriously slow and while you are attempting the betting
progression, you are likely to miss the opportunity. Playing 4 Keeps never
misses an opportunity.*
-
Temptation to change your system during a long roll is always a problem.
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. How do you keep yourself out of a
hand that rolls 20+ rolls? How do you decide to keep to your two wins and
let the monster off the hook?
- In
conclusion Bubba, if you can hold to your two wins and take down, minimize
your losses, and accept the grind play as is, you should have mostly
successful sessions.
*Not to “plaid suit sell" you on my playbook, but you can
purchase it at the Playing 4 Keeps web site…. for less than two set ups.
Regarding the
math, in short, it has to do with all possible results for each number and how
they compare against the loser seven.
What I am
saying below needs to be read carefully. I am talking about wins on the pass
line. It is not saying you will win 45% of the time from naturals. 55% of the
remaining wins have to come from points. However, as you will see, once a
player is on a point, he has only a 40% chance of completing the play. Meaning
that the point loses 60% of the time. The 55% from the win column can only
come from 40% of the times when an
established point wins .
This from my
Do’s and Don’ts of Dice Playbook.
Playing 4
Keeps By The Numbers
Copyright © 2010 by Michael Vernon
playing4keeps.com
You do not need to understand how the odds are computed
to be Playing 4 Keeps. However, the more that you know, the more you will
appreciate what you have your hands on. Let us start with the old cumulative
probabilities that most every beginning craps book offers. See the table below
for the probabilities of each number and each number expressed in odds.
|
Number |
Expectation Out of 36 |
Chance of
Rolling |
Expressed
as Odds |
Number of
Wins To Losses |
|
2 |
1 |
1/36 |
35:1 |
0 |
1 |
|
3 |
2 |
2/36 |
17:1 |
0 |
2 |
|
4 |
3 |
3/36 |
11:1 |
1 |
2 |
|
5 |
4 |
4/36 |
8:1 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
|
6 |
5 |
5/36 |
6.2:1 |
2.27273 |
2.72727 |
|
7 |
6 |
6/36 |
5:1 |
6 |
0 |
|
8 |
5 |
5/36 |
6.2:1 |
2.27273 |
2.72727 |
|
9 |
4 |
4/36 |
8:1 |
1.6 |
2.4 |
|
10 |
3 |
3/36 |
11:1 |
1 |
2 |
|
11 |
2 |
2/36 |
17:1 |
2 |
0 |
|
12 |
1 |
1/36 |
35:1 |
0 |
1 |
|
Total |
36 |
36/36 |
-- |
17.74546 |
18.25454 |
Total Ways to Win in 36 Rolls = 17.74546
Wins Due to Naturals 7/11 = 8 (22.22222% of total
occurrences and 45.08% of total wins)
Natural 7 = 6 (16.66667% of total occurrences and
33.81% of total wins)
Natural 11 = 2 (5.555556% of total occurrences and
11.27% of total wins)
Wins Due to Shooter
Making the Point = 9.74546 (26.5959 % of total
occurrences and 54.92% of total wins)
Total Ways to Lose
Out of 36 Rolls = 18.25454
Losses Due to Crap Rolls = 4
Losses due to the 7-Out = 14.25454
Player’s Negative Expectancy
Without Odds
(18.25454 – 17.74546)
36 = 1.41%
Do you recognized this number? It’s the house edge on
the Pass Line and Come Bet.
If the Pass Line player and the Come Bet player wager the
same amount of money, over time both bettors stand to lose 1.41% of their flat
bet on each wager that they make. This is the casino’s mathematical advantage,
and holds true whether making a Pass Line bet or a Come Bet. However, the
probability of catching a long winning streak is much greater on the Pass Line
then on the Come Bet.
45% of Pass Line wins are going to come on
naturals 7 or 11; 75% of those naturals are going to come on Winner
Sevens; and, Winner Sevens are going to constitute just over 33% of all
wins. That's the good news. The bad news is that when a point is established,
we are going to lose almost 60% of the time (14.25454/24), and it is
impossible that we will score more than one winner seven on any Come Bet.
Conventional Pass Line systems miss this fact and
rely excessively upon the shooter rolling a lot of repeating numbers. Those
systems fail to get much out of the 45% Pass Line wins that come on
naturals. P4K strategy, in contrast, gets the most out of all Pass
Line wins.
Because the hand ends when 7 rolls for a Come Bet not
established, sequences of consecutive Pass Line wins tend to be longer than
consecutive Come Bet sequences. This explains why the Pass Line performs
better with the P4K strategy than does the Come Bet. On the Come Out
roll, the chances are slightly greater than 22% that a natural winner
will roll. Everyone else playing flat
is getting 1:1. The Come Bet, however, is much choppier, and presents fewer
opportunities to hit successive naturals. The chance that a shooter will roll
an 11 (the only way to roll a natural and still keep the dice once a point has
been established) is only 1:18 (or 5.55%). If the shooter rolls a Seven, the
hand is over. The dice pass to the next shooter who will start a new
sequence.
Copyright © 2010
by Michael Vernon
playing4keeps.com
Bubba, the math can get a little mind boggling as it involves
several factors as you can see from the table above. Anyway, that is my
explanation of the math.
If you are a
disciplined player and add my suggestions to your game I would expect for you
to have consistent winning sessions. This of course assumes that you recognize
when it is time to color up.
All the best to you Bubba,
"The Professor"
Ask
My Dog Mousse Part 3
A
Follow Up to Bubba’s Email Questions
Bubba, I am
going to try to help you with the questions with better examples. In short it
is about a fraction of a fraction.
I am
talking about wins, not times “at bat”, when you look at how the wins result,
45% will come from naturals, 7/11, on a Come Out roll. The remaining 55%
result from repeating points. Pop quiz: It is more likely that a box
number will roll twice before a seven rolls once? Hint: Each roll is an
independent event. Answer: The odds of occurrence are exactly the same every
time the dice are rolled.
Now,
consider this. How do you like your chances with $10 Place Bet on a 10 verses
the seven? Okay, now add the 4 and another $10. Feel better? Well, give it
more help with a 5 and 9 for another $10 each. Does this scenario build
your confidence to win? Hey, what the hell, for another $24 you can have all
the numbers covered. Now how do you feel? Go back to your feelings of just one
$10 bet on the 10 verses the 7. Does risking more money increase the
confidence? The odds are exactly the same for each number to win or lose. You
may increase the chances of winning with more bets placed, but you do not over
come the math. Why? As you increase your chances of winning, you increase your
investment in the game. You can only win one bet at a time, but you lose it
all when you lose. When you win, you win $14 or $18. When you lose, you lose
$64. Sure you increase your chances of winning with more bets but you have
to pay for it, that is the risk, and it still wins only one bet. With each
bet, you buy into the house advantage paying extra for a chance of winning
just one bet, which diminishes the rate of return…. Because of the odds
against the bets to win.
It reminds
me of duck hunting. If you jump one duck on the pond you have but one chance
and you must aim accurately or miss the duck. If you jump 50 ducks on the pond
you have increased your chances by 49, but you still must aim
accurately or
miss the duck. Craps is not a shotgun game of blasting into the flock. No
matter what the bet is, its number has to roll in order to win. It always comes down
to the math. Almost isn’t good enough.
The rest of
my comments are in the body of your email typed in blue.
From: bubba [mailto:bubba@xxxxx.xxx]
Sent: Friday, January 13, 2012 6:59 PM
To: Mousse
Subject: Re: craps
Hi Professor,
I am
trying to understand the math you gave me. 45% of Pass Line wins will be a 7.
45% results from
naturals 7 or 11.
So 55% won't. Is that
correct? So the other
55% have to result from points made. So, then I
have almost a 50% chance of the shooter
rolling another number not the 7 for a win for me? Am I correct on that? No,
but I suppose close enough for your thinking. You missed that the 11 is part
of the 45% and 2, 3, and 12 are neutral rolls for you, then after the come out
the 11 is neutral adding to the mix and changing the odds. 2, 3, and 12 figure
in at about 12% and after the Come Out, add the YO for another 6%. Rounded you
have about 18% useless rolls and 17% that cause you to lose to the 7 out. Now
factor in the one bet won per roll element and it is a different picture.
Example, for 6 or 8 to roll it is about 14% compared to about 17% for your
loser “7” and buffered by 18% neutral rolls after the come out. Do you begin
to see how it becomes each bet against the 7? The neutral rolls are allies for
the casino. Why? You said it yourself. With each roll we are one roll closer
to the 7 Out. Brilliant!
You said 75% of those
naturals are going to come on winner sevens. I don’t understand that.
Why not 100% instead of 75%
You are leaving out 11. It is 100%.
It is what I explained in the earlier email. The naturals make up 45% of the
Pass Line wins. 45% is the whole. Then 75% are sevens, (a piece of the whole
45%) and 25% are elevens, (the other piece of 45%). Bubba, see if this helps
you understand it better. You get $100 for Christmas. $55 came from mom and
dad. $45 came from an aunt and an uncle. Of the $45, 75% of the money came
from Auntie Seven, or $33.75. The rest of the money, 25%, came from Uncle YO or $11.25.
You said
winner 7's are going to constitute just over 33% of all wins.
Yep. See the Christmas example
above. If that's
the case then 67% of all wins would be someone making their point.
No, and this is
the mind boggling part of understanding the math in detail for probability,
odds, percents and how the house vigerish helps the casino’s bottom line even
more. Check out the chart from the previous email.
(Wouldn't this be
good for me who is going to get just two hits?
Okay, let me ask a
question back to you. Is the play working for you? If you feel the answer is
yes, then, you have answered you own question.
Bubba, if
you pose this scenario to another person, you are likely to receive a totally
different answer. The person may favor place betting and see things different
to what I have described. However, there is no way of getting around the math
that guarantees the casino their advantage. Even if you believe, as you state
above, (almost a 50% chance of a shooter rolling another number) then it still
leaves you with almost a 50% chance for that to not happen and you are exposed
to losing your $32 trying to win an average of $16. That is not exactly how it
works out, never the less I do not like the odds. I do not like risking more
money to win less money, excepting Don’t bets when I have a distinct advantage
once behind the number.
Bubba, I
explained last night the conditions that I feel make the play viable. I do not
stick my neck out to make others wrong. I do this to share my years of
experience standing at a dice table watching it all. There is no one best way
to play. I do believe what I have put together, P4K, over time is the best
conservative method for consistent results, no matter the energy aspect.
(Especially when I consider that most players are low rollers and play less
than 12 times per year with less than a $500 buy-in. Dice Setter Survey) Once
a player understands the metaphysical advantage, they add a huge factor to
their game. That is why I can say, “You can win them all”.
If you are
buying in for $325 your method of play should provide you with a reasonable
gaming experience. That is, time at the table win or lose. Your way of playing
is your way. For me that is what it is all about, enjoyment of the experience.
There is nothing wrong with pursuing ideas to improve your game. Over my many
years of teaching I have found that most players eventually revert to their
own way. Mousse says hey!
See ya at
the tables,
The Professor
