|
More Random Thoughts
On
Real Talent or Plain Old
Luck (or
I'd rather be Good AND Lucky!)
That is exactly how you have to look at this game if you want and plan to use it
as a "long-term" revenue-generator. Is
my Precision-Shooting just producing some lucky runs, or is actual talent being employed?
Please understand one thing. Craps is
a negative-expectation game. The house-edge
is just that. I accept the Math of the game,
and then set out to de-randomize the dice outcomes so that certain numbers show more often
than they should, and vice-versa with one
certain other number not showing very often at all.
In this case, the fringe benefits in the form of perks and comps are
substantial, while the opportunity to travel first-class, eat at some of the world's
finest restaurants, stay at some very fine hotels, and enjoy other gaming jurisdictions
are multiplied. I'm truly happy to play this
game and enjoy all of the benefits.
Many people today have the added advantage of a practice table at home. You can
buy them, or you can follow on-line instructions and build your own. I unfortunately paid for the most expensive
dice-shooting course in this galaxy...right in the casino...at the tables...in real play!
Roger Clemens, a former Boston Red-Sox, former Toronto Blue Jay, current New York
Yankee pitcher is 40 years old, and plays a young man's game. He is a dinosaur, and I mean that in the kindest
sense of the word. He has no
"change-up", no slow curve-balls, and no "trick" pitches. What he does have is a 98 mph. FASTBALL! Two-seam fastballs which tail-in, four-seam
fastballs that rise, split-fingered fastballs that sink.
So as Roger Clemens fast approaches 300 career wins
you tell me
how come
you can't do that? What's that you
say
just because you can't throw a 98 mph fastball means that no one else on
this earth can either! Are you saying it's
impossible because you aren't capable? Get a life
and go play the slot machines.
If you are practicing at home, I might suggest that you chart every throw. That
is, start a line on a paper and write down your come-out throw and markdown every
subsequent throw until the 7 appears. Then start a new line. Do that for several hundred "hands". You may be surprised that you notice some
"consistency" hidden in there. You may not repeat your Pass Line Points all the
time, but you may be tossing several key Place numbers on a consistent basis before the 7
shows.
There were about 40 or 50 occasions on my last trip where I threw the dice for
more than 30 to 40 minutes each time without ever repeating my Point. Some shooters would
be upset by that...others simply are content to pick and bank the profit. On one
particular hand I shot twenty-one 9's in a row. I didn't cry when I didn't make my Point.
On countless other occasions, I would establish my Point then immediately come back with
the same number. I actually enjoy...and PROFIT more from the longer non-Point repeating
rolls.
Hot Tables turn
Cold
FAST (or
Who left the fridge door open?)
A HOT hand is usually followed by a cold spell of ARCTIC proportions. More often I
run into lukewarm or choppy table conditions, when the dice are behaving numerically
exactly like they should. In Craps,
especially if the dice are being thrown in a truly random manner, the tables can be very
streaky.
That being the case, I would define a "lukewarm" table as when
Player #1 establishes his Point and throws a fair amount of numbers (perhaps 5 to 10)
before hitting his Point, followed by a quick 7-out after re-establishing his second Point
number. Subsequently Players 2, 3, & 4 follow up by doing essentially the same thing.
1-4 rolls.........
count is LOW or COLD
Finding YOUR Table
(or
Paging
Donner
party of 40.)
When I was in Mississippi and Louisiana in February, I actually "shopped
around" for a "cold" table where I could play and further experiment with a
certain method developed by Perry Benedik called "Stepladder". That is, I would
play at one table, keep both ears and eyes open in tracking two or sometimes three nearby
tables. If my turn to shoot wasn't coming up, I would park one chip on the rail to hold my
position and notify the box-man that I'd be right back. I would then move into position at
the "cold" table, institute a "Stepladder" assault, hopefully and
usually pick up my winnings, and then return to my original table.
Streaks Exist
(or
call it a Mack truck if you want; just bet or LEAVE!)
Scientifically, I don't have a fully-plausible explanation why streaks occur other
than the Rule of Large Numbers and the standard realm of deviations which occur therein.
Carl Sagan said "Finding
the occasional straw of truth awash in a great ocean of confusion and bamboozle requires
intelligence, vigilance, dedication and courage."
Superstitious Pit
Critters (or
Change the dealer, the dice and sprinkle salt)
A lot of dice dealers play craps in their spare time. Some Box-men play craps in ALL their spare
time. A few Floor-men and Pit-Bosses are depraved, degenerate gamblers of the worst kind. They are also even more superstitious than most
players. Some will put "lucky" dice
into the "penalty box" drawer until the end of the shift; others will slip in
new dice in the middle of a hot roll without most anyone seeing. Some will even sprinkle salt around the feet of a
lucky player. Don't believe me? Just ask Barney Vinson in the pit at Caesars
Palace what they use the salt for around there for.
However, the weirdest thing I saw was at Lady Luck in LV last September. They had
both A & B-type dice, two different colors (red & green) and two different sizes
of dice in play at the same time. The weirdest part was that the dice were so worn, there
were actually large gouges, knicks, and cuts in the dice. The edges were worn to the point
of being fully rounded. They looked like a bad side-of-beef, all maggoty and mutilated. I
actually commented to my lady friend that I wouldn't be surprised if they were less than
"square" if you know what I mean. Those dice combined with their
land-barge-sized tables, led me away from there after 10 minutes. Hopefully the new owners
will be able to afford new matching dice.
I never bet against a Rhythmic-Roller. If a Shooter is displaying some form of
skill at setting, tossing, etc. I use a modified Hedgehog method, wherein I Place the 6
& 8, collect one win and regress so that I have a profit albeit small already locked
up, then use subsequent hits to finance 5 & 9 Place bets. Again I collect Place
winnings, and then press on every other hit. Be mindful that once the dice have circulated
once around the table, I will remember if any player had a SKILLFUL roll as opposed to a
LUCKY roll on their previous round. There is a big difference.
As always, Good Luck
& Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life.
|
|