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I Want A Fool-Proof System
And I
Need It NOW! I received an e-mail from a long-time friend named Dave in Western New York this morning. He plays at the Turning Stone Casino just outside of Syracuse. It's a great casino with fine restaurants, incredible entertainment, a stunning hotel, very friendly staff and a wide variety of craps tables in two different casinos. No, this isn't a promo for the Onieda Nation who operate that place. Rather, it is the backdrop to his urgent request. He plays there regularly and occasionally wins; but more often he loses, so I put him into the "normal casino victim" category. I won't reprint all of the sordid details of his e-mail, but the key feature was that he pleaded " I Want a Fool-Proof System And I Need it NOW! He said that he was tired of losing, and to restore his faith, he needed a sure-fire method. I initially wrote back and said that praying at the altar of the craps table was probably the wrong place to regain faith, let alone replenish your wallet unless you really know what you are doing. Dave is not a Precision-Shooter, and he hardly knows the difference between preferred stock and livestock, so I wasn't about to teach him over cyber-space, and I told him so. He immediately e-mailed me again and beseeched me in the whiniest voice that printed words could find, that he desperately wanted something that would work absolutely, positively just once with a $1,000 session bankroll. I've got to tell you, I went out to the railing of the motor-yacht that I'm on, leaned over the rail and just gazed really hard off into the distance. Maybe I was trying to sight something that wasn't really there. Perhaps if I squinted and strained, I might recognize something that drove ancient mariners to far away lands that they were not sure even existed. My earnings depend almost entirely on my ability to Precision-Shoot the dice in a way that de-randomizes them to a point where it is not only a positive-expectation game, but to where craps is my sole source of a very ample income. Dave was looking for something completely different. I came up with something that APPEARED to fit Dave's needs, wants and desires.
There's good news,
better news, great news, bad news and worse news.
Here's the method and it certainly isn't a system:
What does all of this mean? 144 rolls is four times the 36 possibilities on the dice. There is no guarantee that the 12 will appear in that period. There is no guarantee that the $1,003 bankroll will be returned to your pocket, instead of being sucked in and absorbed by the box-man's stacks of casino chips. Why does this method work most of the time? Here's a hint. The more attempts that are made to roll a 12, combined with the mildly progressive wagers, increase the chance that Dave will still be in the game when the 12 finally appears. If the 12 appears during his betting, he has a guaranteed profit. Here's a table that simplifies the approach: Chance
of at least one hit in multiple tries
Good Luck & Good Skill at the
Tables
and in Life.
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