As
most of you know, I treat the Come-Out roll-sequence as a distinct revenue-source that is
totally separate from the Point-cycle itself.
I
sometimes allow one cycle to influence the other especially if Im trying to
establish a specific PL-Point or rather to AVOID establishing a specific PL-Point. Ill have more to say about that particular
subject in Part Four of this series, but for now I just want to take a
detailed look at the Come-Out sequence from a Darkside Precision-Shooters perspective.
While
we know that certain 7-dominant dice-sets favor the Passline-players Come-Out roll, the
situation gets a little trickier when shooting from the Dont. The Darksider wants Horn-hits but doesnt
want to shoot himself in the foot with the appearance of a lot of C-O 7-losers.
Though
Ive looked at and carefully considered EVERY dice-set and permutation, Im
always drawn back to the Straight-Six set even when shooting from the Donts. While it is admittedly 7-heavy (with an on-axis 7
ratio of 4:1), it also has such an attractively large array of on-axis Horn-numbers (a 2
and a 12, plus two 3s as well as two 11s).
So
how do we reconcile the possibility of an on-axis C-O 7-loser with the charm, appeal and
profit-potential of all those Horn-numbers?
Well,
to my mind, we first have to consider how good we actually are with our dice-throwing
abilities.
Ø If
we are fairly good (up to ~51% on-axis) or pretty good (up to ~55% on-axis) at influencing
the dice outcomes; then we still have a decent shot at Horn or World profit-production
during the C-O.
Ø With
that skill-level, Horn-repeaters are not something that a disproportionate amount of our
money should be spent on chasing (or at least, we shouldnt spend a whole lot of
money in parlaying our first win
although some Press-action may be prescribed),
depending again on your on-axis consistency. In
other words, Horn or World-betting can be very net-profitable with moderate on-axis
control, but that same profitability can quickly disappear if you use too much (to high of a ratio) of your newly-minted income on
trying to hit two or more hits in a row without first locking in SOME of it as RETAINED
profit.
Ø In
other words, if your on-axis consistency isnt high enough; then the volatility that
accompanies parlayed or too-rapidly-pressed Horn or World betting can easily wipe out any
apparent edge that you have over this particular wager.
Ø Now
if your shooting is more than 55% reliably on-axis; then the whole Come-Out cycle offers
revenue prospects that begin to make PL or DP line-bet earnings quickly pale by
comparison. In other words, the better you
get at keeping the dice on-axis using the S-6 set (or any other set for that matter); the
better your profit-prospects are (as long as you bet that advantage in a responsible way).
To
be completely fair, you also have to consider the lesser number of 7s on a
7-avoidance (but still Horn-heavy) set like the Crossed-Sixes.
Ø While
the X-6 set has less on-axis 7s than the S-6, it also has less of those tasty
looking Horn-numbers too (the X-6 has four Horns and two 7s, while the S-6s
have six Horns, and four 7s).
Ø At
first blush the X-6 set has a 66% versus 33% ratio when comparing Horns-to-Sevens, while
the S-6 is a little more even with its 60% versus 40% H:7 ratio
but theres much
more to it than that.
Ø The
relatively small difference in those two comparative ratios is more than compensated for
by the higher-ratio payouts that the Horn-numbers offer versus the even-money rewards when
a DP Come-Out winner rolls (or when a DP bet has to be replaced because a C-O 7 eliminated
it).
Ø For
that reason, Ive stuck with the S-6 set because of its net-profitability for
me on the Come-Out, but my mind remains completely open to any improvements or better
approaches that I may not yet be aware of.
For
now, heres how I approach the whole Come-Out sequence when Im shooting from
the Dont:
My
Darkside Straight-Sixes C-O Progression
Ø Using
the S-6, I wager so that my DP-bet equals my C-O World-bet.
Ø That
is, if Ive got a $25 wager on the Dont Pass line; then Ill also make a
$25 World-bet (aka whirl bet), which cover the 7, 2, 3, 11 and 12 with
one $5 betting-unit on each.
Ø I
also make a $5 bet on the Hard-4 and Hard-10 that I have working on the
Come-out.
Ø In
some jurisdictions, the Hardways are automatically on during the C-O, while in
other places they are off unless called (and marked with a lammer) as
on.
Ø The
S-6 set contains both an on-axis H-4 and H-10. As
a Darksider, I want to avoid the C-O 7 so I set two of the primary-faces on the H-4 and
H-10, while the other two faces are the two aces (2), and the two sixes (12).
Ø Obviously
if I was using this set as a Rightside shooter, Id be transposing those Hardways
into intentional 5/2 and 2/5 7s and
looking for dedicated C-O PL-winners as well as the Horn/World hits.
Ø You
could just as easily modify this approach with a more conservative approach by using a $5
DP-bet, a $5 World-bet, and $1 each on the Hard-4 and Hard-10.
Ø If
my Darkside C-O outcome is a double-pitch 7...then my World-bet stays at its initial
value, and I replace my DP wager along with the two HW-bets on the 4 and 10.
Let
me add another side-note on the element of intentionally using a 7-dominant set knowing
full well the S-6 has four on-axis 7-losers on it.
Ø If
a 7 rolls on the C-O, the World-bet is self-sustaining in that its a
push (no gain and no loss), but your DP flat-bet has to be replaced.
Ø I
balance that off with the single appearance of the 2 and 12, along with the double
appearance of the 3 and 11.
Ø With
the high-ratio payouts on each of those Horn-numbers, the sting of having to replace your
DP bet if a 7 or 11 shows up, is offset with the quinella-type double payoff if a 2, 3 or
12 shows up.
In
addition to that, the appearance of a $5 Hard-4 or Hard-10 not only pays off quite nicely,
it concurrently sets a (relatively) tough-to-repeat PL-Point.
Though
its not a perfect-world scenario, Ive found that the S-6 still generates
net-profit
and does so in spades when the dice end up on one of their primary-faces,
and especially if I bring in back-to-back-to-back Horn-number repeaters.
So
lets continue our look at how I book a progression when I get repeating
Horn-outcomes.
Ø If
the first outcome is an 11...I keep the World-bet at its initial level and I replace my
DP-wager. That means that my first hit on an
11 generates a net-profit of $30.
Ø If
the outcome is a 3...I double the World-bet to $50, and maintain the same initial $25 bet
for my DP-wager. That means that a 3 (along
with the DP even-money payment) generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of
$55.
Ø If
the outcome is a 2 or 12...I once again double the World-bet to $50, but still keep the
same initial bet for the DP-line. That means
that a 2 generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $130, while a 12
generates a net-profit (after the World-bet is pressed) of $105.
On
the very next C-O decision...
Ø If
the outcome is a 7...I keep the same bet for both the World and the DP. If the World is at $50, then it stays at $50, but
I almost always keep my DP base-bet at $25 no matter how large the World-bet grows. Again, this acts to minimize the impact of an
on-axis C-O DP 7-loser. I concurrently
replace the two $5 wagers on the working Hard-4 and Hard-10 once again if the Come-Out 7
rolls.
Ø Though
this may look like a very costly way to get the profit from those six possible on-axis
Horn appearances, a couple of months of closely tracked in-casino play validates the
net-profitability (some would even say, the OUTSTANDING net-profitability) of this
betting-method. However, let me say right
here and now that you have to do your own homework to find out what betting-approach and
set-selection works best for YOU. Obviously
everyones mileage may vary.
Ø Please
DO NOT use ANY of my methods without first validating them while using YOUR
dice-rolling performances and factoring in your own bankroll and bet-making comfort
levels. It is your money and your
responsibility to determine whether or not ANY betting-method is right for you, your
bankroll and your dice-throwing skills. I
urge you to use the utmost caution when you are trying any new method or betting-approach
out for the first time.
Ø If
on the second Come-Out roll the outcome is an 11...I replace the DP and increase the
World-bet by one $25 unit.
Ø If
the outcome is a 3...I increase my current World-bet by two more base-units
(of $25 each for a current total of $100 on the World), but I still keep the same initial
$25 bet on the DP.
Ø If
the outcome is a 2 or 12...I increase my current World-bet by three
base-units (a $75 increase).
On
any subsequent Horn-payers, I add one additional unit to the previous scale.
Now...
Ø I
press the World with a further two-unit ($50) increase if the 11 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further three-unit ($75) increase if the 3 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit ($100) increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.
As
you can see the required replacement of a lost DP line-bet has less and less significance
as your World-action increases. If I'm
fortunate enough to get another Horn-hit, I do the same "add one unit to the
previous scale" thing, as in
Ø I
press the World with a further three-unit increase if the 11 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 3 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.
I
haven't gotten all of this press-the-World action past the next progression more than a
couple of times, but the net revenue-generation has been quite amazing WITHOUT causing any
undue pit attention. Yes, the pit does
notice when the Horn is repeating more than four or five times in a row, especially if
more than a couple of players are on (or there are big stakes on it), but it hasnt
resulted in more than a passing interest to make sure that the stickman calls out the
correct Prop-payments to the base dealer.
In
any event, the next progression (if another Horn repeats again), looks like this:
Ø I
press the World with a further four-unit increase if the 11 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further five-unit increase if the 3 rolls.
Ø I
press the World with a further six-unit increase if the 2 or 12 rolls.
At
this point, your World-bet can reach the $500 mark (using $25 base-unit bets) if
youve had the C-O results that see you using the maximum unit-increase on each one
of those steps (especially if the 2 or 12 has been rolling), and this is also the point
where you will very likely reach the maximum allowable payout level at many casinos.
Since
some houses restrict the maximum Prop-bet to a level that would see the maximum allowable
payout to be made (as set by casino policy), youre likely not going to be allowed to
raise your World-action much beyond this point.
I
personally never got my World-bet past this point during the Casino du Lac-Leamy portion
of the trip although my ego would have LOVED to reach that max and be told that they
wouldnt permit a bigger bet.
Session
Three
Day
Two (my third day in town) saw significant improvement in a couple of areas.
First,
I was able to bet with the prevailing random-roller trend much better than I had at Casino
du Montreal. Instead of zigging when I should
have been zagging; my trend-determinations (trend-tracking) and I-think-its-a-smart-time-to-wager
predictions were much more accurate.
Im
willing to admit that in fact I might have been lucky in making bets on the prevailing
trend and having them work out so well and so consistently
and that luck may have
been the chief cause of those earnings. The
fact is that during my couple of days at Casino du Montreal, my trend-awareness (which is
usually very accurate as far as sniffing out a good betting prospect goes) seemed to be WAY
off. Here at Casino du Lac-Leamy, it seemed
to be getting back on track.
Now
Ill also admit that betting on ANY random-rollers carries inherent risk and
it can be a hit-or-miss situation; but my batting-average up until then had been
alarmingly dead-on, balls-accurate in terms of getting in while the trend was good, and
getting out before my bets got swept away. Montreal
had temporarily sapped some of that trend-spotting confidence and I was elated to have it
back.
The
other significant improvement that I noticed (which is based more on the skill of throwing
the dice than on the luck and volatility of a randomly-determined game), was the fact that
my Come-Out cycle rolling and betting took on a life (and a repeatable profitability) all
its own.
During
the four hands that I had during Session Three, each one saw me go higher in the
Horn-progression than I had been averaging up until that point. Though my C-O roll average remained the same, I
was able to eliminate a few more C-O 7s and replace them with higher-paying
primary-hits on the 2 and 12 (as well as the 3 and 11).
By eliminating a few more double-pitch 7s, I saw my Horn-number income
rise dramatically.
The
third significant improvement was the fact that I was able to hit a few more of my working
C-O Hardway 4s and 10s. Up until
this point, I had been hitting them, but also knocking them down with regularity due to
those C-O double-pitched 7s. By
eliminating a few more Come-Out 7s, I was able to accomplish two complimentary
things at the same time.
Ø I
was able to derive some Hard 4 or 10 profit on the Come-Out.
Ø I
was also able to establish the 4 or 10 as the PL-Point.
Frankly,
I was starting to feel a little giddy at the way this Come-Out strategy was coming
together.
Though
I didnt have to pinch myself to convince myself that it was real
I found myself
shaking my head in disbelief at the seeming ease at which it was happening. I tempered all those high-spitited thoughts with
the fact that craps
no matter HOW GOOD you get at Precision-Shooting
can
make you humble real fast if you allow your head to get too big or if you allow yourself
to get distracted from your game-plan, your discipline or your dice-tossing focus.
A
Culinary Interlude
I
was able to get a great comp to the mid-afternoon Sunday brunch at Arôme
Seafood and Grill. As most of you know, I strongly counsel against
mixing alcohol with gambling. I certainly
wasnt planning on doing any drinking, but when I found the great wine pairings that
they had available to compliment the incredible food; I didnt hesitate to imbibe
(within reason). The one concession that I
made for that decision was to resolve not to play any further that afternoon.
Arôme
is a premium-grade restaurant that brings in some of the finest foods available anywhere
and presents them with an artistically tasteful flair and a flavorfully bold passion.
I
take food seriously, and judging by their offerings
they do too.
Session
Four
My
mid-afternoon brunch actually carried me much further into the day than I had projected
when I left the craps table for what was supposed to be a short late lunch.
I
got back to the tables just after 8 pm and of course they were as busy as one would expect
them to be on a weekend evening. The neat
thing though, was that many random-rollers at my table had back-to-back-to-back hot rolls. Have you noticed that I never call R-Rs
chicken feeders? Anyway,
one rotation of the table took a few minutes less than three hours to
complete
yes, it was THAT hot!
I
like a good thing just as much as the next guy, and I can tell you that some
random-shooters were blazing the dice all over the layout (and frequently off the table)
without any disruption to the relentless cascade of Box-numbers and PL-winners for that
entire three hour period.
Normally,
I dont jump right on the Passline during a hot roll
opting instead for
Place-betting; however in this situation the random-rollers were throwing as many C-O
winners as I had been throwing during my two previous sessions so I just HAD to bet
into THAT trend too.
If
you had asked me at that moment whether I preferred the steady profit-reliability of
Precision-Shooting or whether I liked the profit-making high that randomly-thrown ten or
eleven hot shooters in a row can generate; I would have admitted that I like the
excitement of ANY hot hand even if it is thrown by a R-R (and I like them even more
if there are many hot hands in a row as was the case on this occasion), but I still
prefer the lower volatility and higher-predictability that skillful dicesetting brings to
my game. If I had to choose one over the
other, Id always go for the predictability of Precision-Shooting.
Three-hour
hot-streaks dont come along all that often, but consistent Precision-Shooting can
bring the bacon home nearly every day of the week.
By
the time the dice got around to me during that marathon hot-streak, the boxman had
solicited voluntary partial color-ups from the players because his chip-bank had run
out of white, red and green chips again despite a supplementary chip-fill about halfway
through the heat wave.
During
that short break in the action, I contemplated shooting the dice from the Rightside, and
yes, I even considered shooting them from the Donts.
Instead
I simply passed the dice to the next player who just happened to be the first player who
had started the hot-streak almost three hours earlier (and who I had gotten into the game
on after he made his second PL-winner). Although
he once again did quite well, the magic soon disappeared as player after player that shot
after him managed to 7-out in such short order that it took less than twenty minutes for
the dice to come back around to me again. This
time, I definitely wanted to shoot and the choice of which line I would be shooting from
would be NO CONTEST. This was my
Darkside-shooting journey, and I was determined to make the most of it.
My
C-O roll lasted for five tosses before establishing the Point, and from there it took just
one additional toss to bring about my winner-7.
My
rail and two of my pockets were full of green, black and purple chips as I prepared to
leave the game, but less than 2% of those winnings were attributable to my own one hand of
DP shooting. Like I said, I like a good
thing just as much as the next guy, and when a great betting opportunity (especially a
sustainable hot streak) shows up, then Ill be all over it in a BIG way.
I
headed off to catch up on my e-mail along with the latest postings on both
Irishsetters and Heavys excellent Message Boards.
Sessions
Five, Six and Seven
I
wont bore you with the details of all three of these sessions that I took part in
the following day. Suffice it to say that my
C-O average still hovered in the low-4 toss-range, while my Point-cycle shooting took a
little less (in the high-three toss-range), although there was one hand during Session Six
that required 18 tosses to bring about the 7-Out (yes, I was a little concerned
no,
I wasnt overly worried or frustrated)
although it did remind me of the
importance of humility (and the need to avoid feelings of dice-setting omnipotence) once
again.
Though
Day Two had seen me throw the dice for a relatively small number of times, my overall
profit (even after backing out all that R-R hot-streak marathon profit from the night
before) was beginning to look pretty good.
Keep
in mind that my original intent was to work my Darkside shooting up to a point where it
could potentially generate about a thousand dollars a day, with about three to four hours
of craps table exposure per day. While Days
One, Two and Three each got me to that point, I definitely saw more than just fleeting
glimpses of exactly HOW I could pump up the profit-volume even further and potentially
curtail the number of hours it would take me to get there in the first place.
To
me, the answer was two-fold.
The
first part lay in the Come-Out-cycle betting that I had been working on; and the second
part was by increasing the free-Odds component of my DP-Point to the level where each hand
would generate AT LEAST as much per-shooting-opportunity as my Rightside
PL-Point/Odds/and Place-betting combo had been averaging up until the time when I embarked
on this trip.
Though
I had some distance to go, the journey to sustainably high Darkside profitability sure
seemed much closer than it had just a couple of days earlier in Montreal.
Their
Standard Buffet and a Gourmet Throwback to the 70s
Banco
is name of their buffet with its standard 100 items feeding-trough. Since I cant think of anything that
differentiates this from any other semi-upscale buffet that has become the norm across
North America, Ill just say that if you are hungry
itll fill you
up
oh, and its an easy comp for very minimal casino play.
On
the other hand, I DO
have something to say about one of Casino du Lac-Leamys gourmet restaurants.
Okay,
Ill admit it, I honestly thought that fondue went out of style with Starsky and
Hutch, shag carpeting, Alias Smith and Jones, white men with afros, Room 222,
elephant pants and Robert Blakes Baretta
along with the rest of the
anachronistic things that the 70s had to offer.
Well, at La
Fondue Royale
it is very much alive and doing quite well, thank you very much.
The
Salon Royal offers a unique Franco-Swiss concept where you cook your own food (on skewers)
in pots of boiling oil, pots of melted cheese, and dessert pots full of melted chocolate
for dipping various and sundry fruits and biscuits.
Do-it-yourself fondue cooking was something that I definitely wasnt
expecting in a casino setting, but it was a pleasant surprise and my dinner companions
thoroughly enjoyed it as a totally new experience that they hadnt ever heard of
before.
It
made for a great social gathering that is quite a few steps away from what ordinarily
passes for gourmet casino dining. I highly
recommend La
Fondue Royale,
especially if you can get a full-ride comp for the evening.
On
the Road Again
I
hit the road with a better attitude than I had had when I left Casino du Montreal to head
towards this place.
My
attitude was buoyed by two facts.
Ø I
had made an obscene amount of money off of that ultra-searing non-stop random-roller
marathon.
Ø My
Come-Out World-betting was spinning much more gold on its own than I expected to earn on
both my C-O and Point-cycle shooting combined.
That
in and of itself was gratifying enough, but I had also advanced much further on the
profit-curve than I thought I would be by this point in my Darkside journey.
I hope youll join me as that evolution continues.
Good Luck & Good
Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
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