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Part XII With
the use of Initial Steep Regressions, a novice dice-influencer can reap larger and much
more consistent monetary rewards from the same skill-level and the same
bet-level than flat-betting or ramped-up bet-pressing can. Equally,
an advanced player can extract a steadier and even higher income from his current
skill-set on a much more predictable basis by simply utilizing the widest, most frequently
occurring sector of his roll-duration range. How
does that work?
Ø
Once
a players point-cycle roll-duration extends past the Optimal Regression point for
an initially positive-expectation bet, the expected-value (EV) quickly falls into
negative-expectation territory. That is, the
wager is now expected to bring in less money than its face-value.
Ø
The
higher a players SRR-rate is, the less problematic negative volatility becomes. Therefore,
the higher his EV on a given bet; the longer negative volatility is held at bay...and
obviously, the more profitable each of his properly wagered hands become.
Ø
At
the same time; the higher his EV is on a given bet, the fewer roll-decisions he will need
for the bet to become net-positive, and therefore, the less volatility each of his hands
will have to endure.
Ø
ISR's
are critically important for dice-influencers who have already validated their skill
but haven't yet been able to translate that into any kind of reliably consistent profit. Steep
Regressions Are A Force-Multiplier Initial
Steep Regressions effectually leverage the Expected Value and realizable profit
that a player can earn on every validated wager that he makes. In
other words,
ISR's
let an SRR-7 shooter make the profit that most SRR-9 or SRR-10 flat-betting or
aggressive-pressing shooters only FANTASIZE about.
Ø
By
profitably exploiting more of his rolls from the fattest (most frequently occurring)
portion of his roll-duration expectancy-curve; the ISR-user can make much more money
with much less risk and much lower volatility than a better shooter who uses flat or
aggressively pressed wagers can.
Ø
The
use of Steep Regressions for SRR-7 through SRR-10 shooters is where the MOST
dice-influencing profit can be found; yet most players fail to seize it
or even
recognize that its possible to extract that much profit from their current
skill-rate.
Ø
Each
dice-set produces its own array of high-EV, low-EV, and negative-EV wagers. Wagering on a few high-EV bets will almost always
be more profitable than spreading the same amount of money across a wider range of
lower-EV wagers. To
accomplish that however, you have to wager your money in a manner which utilizes only your
strongest-edge bets, and disregards or at least discounts all of the rest. Once
youve done that; Steep Regressions leverage your current skills and multiply the
force by which your dice-influencing abilities are profitably fulfilled and effectuated. ISRs
simply work better and are more effective at extracting additional profit out of the SAME
skill-level than any other types of bet-management. Putting
the 4 and 10 Place-bet Under a Microscope
So
far weve looked at how well ISRs work on several global-type bets that cover
four numbers (Inside, Outside, and Even), six numbers (Across) and
even ten numbers (Iron Cross) at the same time.
However, lets say you are just considering Place-betting your two most
dominant Signature-Numbers like the 4 and 10.
Ø
In
random expectancy, well see three 4s and three 10s against six
appearances of the 7, which equates to six appearances of the 4 and 10 for every six
appearances for the 7.
Ø
That
ratio of 6:6 means a random-roller can expect a 4s-and-10s-to-7s
appearance-rate of 1:1.
Ø
As
you know, that even-ratio is not enough to make up for the cost of a 7-out which would
wipe out both Place-bet wagers; and even though a winning hit pays 9:5 as a straight
Place-bet and 2:1 as a buy-bet
it is still not enough to overcome the
house-edge.
Ø
As
a result, random-rollers stay on the negative-side of the expectation curve, while
dice-influencers cross over into positive territory on a regular basis. Why
ISRs Work So Well With Simple 4 & 10 Place-bets
We
know that for a random-roller, the 7 is expected to show up once every six rolls. With a 16.67% appearance-rate, that DOES NOT
mean that the 7 will show up like clockwork on each and every sixth roll. Instead, it means that its appearance-rate will
average out to once every six rolls. Thats
the nature of the beast that we call volatility.
As
dice-influencers we know that the further we move our shooting away from the
randomly-expected SRR-6, the better we are at keeping the 7 at bay. In
a random outcome game, the 4 and 10 constitute 16.67% of all possible
outcomes which is the same occurrence-rate of the 7.
There
are:
Ø
Three
ways to make a 4, and a Place-bet pays 9:5. When
the place-bet is bought, it pays 2:1, less commission.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 10, and a Place-bet pays 9:5. When
the place-bet is bought, it pays 2:1, less commission.
As
with every Rightside bet, how often the 7 appears is dictated by your skill-based
SRR-rate.
Although
the sheer number of 4s and 10s doesnt rise that dramatically when your
shooting-skill improves; the real difference comes in the reduced appearance-rate of
hand-ending 7s. In the chart above, an
SRR-9 shooter only generates slightly more 4s and 10s than a random-roller
does (6.4 versus 6.0). However, since his
dice-influencing produces a lower overall sevens-appearance-rate, his actual
4s-and-10s-to-7s ratio improves by 60% (from 1.0 to 1.6). That
is the kind of a healthy increase that a savvy advantage-player simply cannot ignore. Anatomy
Of a 4
& 10
Place-bet
The
primary advantage-play rule-of-thumb is: The
fewer advantaged bets that you spread your money over, the fewer winning hits you will
need in order to produce a net-profit.
Place-betting
the 4 and 10 only requires two winning hits to repay your initial base-bet before breaking
into net-profitability. As
a flat-betting advantage-player, two hits on either the 4 and 10 seems like a
modest goal; but you have to maintain perspective and think about all of the times when
youve only hit one of them. If
you add up all of those frustrating one-roll-short-of-a-profit losses; youll
quickly see that the number of winning hands that you need to throw, actually exceeds
that two-hits-required mark because of all those one-hit-isnt-enough
performances. In
other words, the more you miss, the more you have to hit
just to break even. To
be totally fair though, it still doesnt take very much dice-influencing skill for
this wager to be a steady profit contributor, even if you do decide to strictly adhere to
flat-bets only. Take a look:
Your
Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio largely determines the average roll-duration of your 4 & 10
Place-bet. Ø Now we all know that sometimes a random-roller will throw all kinds of 4s and 10s, while at other times they cant produce them to save their life.
Ø
On
average though, the house wins out on the randomly-wagered 4 and 10
and at the end of
the day, it remains a net-detractor to your bankroll.
Ø
On
the other hand, even a flat-betting SRR-7 shooter can produce a modest net-profit with
this wager. Sure, sometimes hell throw
a 7-Out before producing the two required winning hits that it takes to make this bet
net-profitable; but over time, even flat betting it will produce a decent profit for this
caliber of shooter by providing an average return of 8% profit on each and every hand that
he throws. For the SRR-8 shooter, that
rate-of-return jumps to nearly 26% R.O.I. per hand.
As
good as advantage-play flat-betting can be; there is an even better way for the
modestly skilled Precision-Shooter to produce steadier and larger profits from the
exact same skill-level. Ø Your SRR determines the ability for any given wager to survive over multiple Point-cycle rolls.
Ø
That
survival rate is determined by the ever-present 7.
Ø
As
your SRR-rate improves over random, your chances of a given bet surviving for additional
rolls, increases.
Ø
The
higher your SRR-rate is, the longer a given bet has a chance to survive
and THRIVE! As
with a random-roller, each SRR-rate produces its own roll-duration decay-rate against
which your validated edge against any given wager has to fight.
Ø
When
we take the survival-rate for a given wager like the Place-bet 4 and 10, and pit it
against the roll-duration decay-rate of your current Sevens-to-Rolls-Ratio (SRR), we can
establish the optimal time at which to regress your initially large Place-bets into
smaller, lower-value ones on the same numbers. As
weve seen in previous chapters, the per-roll decay-rate is different for each
SRR-rate as well as each type of wager. Here
is what it looks like for the 4 and 10 Place-bet point-cycle:
Although
the percentages for each SRR proficiency-rate may appear to be relatively close to each
other, and not significantly better than random; it is in that small degree of
positive-expectation variance that we find all kinds of reliable profit. This is especially true in the first couple of
point-cycle rolls during any given hand. As
weve discussed previously, your per-roll chances of rolling a 7 stays exactly the
same. For a random-roller it remains
rock-steady at 16.67% per-roll, and for the SRR-7 shooter it stays locked in at 14.29% per
point-cycle roll. However, the cumulative
roll-ending effect of the 7 does not remain steady
in fact, it increases
dramatically. As a result, your chances of
having a long non-7 hand decays with each and every subsequent point-cycle roll that you
make. Sure, you may sometimes produce a
headline-making mega-roll, but most times you wont.
Advantage-play
means taking profitable advantage of what your dice-influencing skills are most capable of
producing. You can try to bet like EVERY
hand will be a mega-hand, but frankly you are going to be disappointed many more times
than youll be elated. The
use of Initial Steep Regressions bring profit-reliability much closer to hand
much
more often. Your
Mileage May Vary
As
your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) improves, the appearance-rate for the 7 declines. Ø The less the 7 shows up within a given sampling-group, the more other non-7 outcomes will take its place. Therefore, a reduced 7s appearance-rate means an increased winning-bet rate.
Ø
To
give your dice-shooting skills the best opportunity to prosper, you should determine
exactly which numbers are taking the place of those diminishing 7s.
Ø
In
the samples that Ive used in this series, Ive evenly spread those replacement
numbers across the entire outcome spectrum. As
such, your expectancy-chart may look somewhat different than the generic ones here. As
weve discussed before:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positive-expectation territory; then we can
easily determine a way in which to use an initially large starting-level
wager, and then calculate when the ideal time to regress it down to a still productive
post-regression value is.
Ø
As
I showed above; even though Kelly-style flat-betting can produce a net-profit, the use of
ISRs substantially increase our same-skill profit-rate.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand. Conversely, the higher your SRR is, the more time
(as measured by the number of point-cycle rolls) you will have in which to fully exploit
your dice-influencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected roll-duration hit-rate chart for the 4 and 10 Place-bet that we just looked
at, helps us to correctly factor in the modified sevens-appearance-rate for each SRR;
which in turn brings to light the optimal regression trigger-point for each skill-level.
Ø
Once
we know where that positive-to-negative transition point is, we can use it as the
trigger-point in which to optimally regress our large initial-wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lock-in a net-profit
while still maintaining active but lower-value bets on the layout in the event that our
hand-duration does exceed and survive that positive-to-negative transition point, as it
often will. A
Practical Comparison
Lets
look at how this works when we compare flat-betting $25 each on the 4 and 10 versus initially
betting $25 each on the 4 and 10 then steeply regressing it to $5 each on the 4
and 10 at the appropriate trigger-point.
I
deleted any further references to SRR-6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negative-expectation territory. Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled dice-influencer
to achieve a net-profit much sooner and on a much more consistent
basis than if he is making comparably spread flat Kelly-style bets. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRR-based trigger-point at which the
Large-bet-to-Small-bet regression takes place.
Heres
a summarized comparison between flat-betting the 4 and 10 Place-bet versus the use of an
Initial Steep Regression:
Ø A $8 per-hand profit for a SRR-7 flat-bettor is fairly meager when compared to the $47 per-hand profit from the same guy using a Steep Regression.
Ø
Each
scenario starts off with the same bet, $25 each on the 4 and 10. The big difference comes when the smart player
regresses his initially large wager down to a more reasonable one when it is approaching
negative-expectation territory
thereby locking up a profit no matter what happens
during the rest of the hand. Now
the argument could be made that the guy who never regresses his bets will make more money
in the event that this hand turns out to be THE hand of the century. That assumption of course is correct for long
hands; however, we are talking about your average-hand and your average-session
shooting where your skills should be producing a profit for you
but they
currently arent. No
one in their right mind is saying that you cant press-up your regressed bets with
ongoing winning-wager revenue if your longer-duration hand does continue to produce
money; however the fact remains that MOST of your barely-better-than-random hands
dont get to that point; yet they can STILL be net-profitable if you bet them
properly. Anyone
can make money off of 20, 30, 50 and 70-roll hands, but it takes an acute sense of
skills-awareness and betting-efficiency to take advantage of the short and mediocre ones
too. SRR-based
ISRs help you accomplish that. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø The steeper the regression-ratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a net-profit will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regression-ratio is; the less frequent and lower your net-profit will
be.
Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRR-rate improves, so does your return on investment:
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better youll be able to take full advantage of your current dice-influencing
skills. It
is important to note that each SRR-level forces a different bet-reduction trigger-point. While the SRR-7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR-8 dice-influencer can reasonably
keep them up at their initial large size for the first two point-cycle rolls before
needing to steeply regress them. In the case
of a SRR-9 shooter using the 4 and 10 Place-bet that weve been discussing today,
hell generally get the benefit of four pre-regression hits before optimally
reducing his bet-exposure.
Ø
The
fewer advantaged-bets that you spread your money over, the fewer winning-hits you will
need in order to produce a net-profit.
Ø
By
limiting your wagers to just two Place-bets like the 4 and 10; the required number of
winning-hits to break through to net-profit is minimal.
Ø
When
you add in the use of an Initial Steep Regression, you enable your dice-influencing skills
to get to that profit breakthrough point much faster and with much more
consistency. Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor
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