Regression Avoids Depression Part 17
Today we are heading into
an advantage-play area that will allow you to extract not only more
profit from the same level of play, but
also help you understand how the slimmest of margins
over the house can offer
all kinds of profit as long as your other non-advantage bets are
minimized.
Developing Your
Edge and Then Exploiting Your Advantage
As an advantage-player, your edge-per-hand determines how
much profit you can expect to extract,
on average, from each dice-shooting
opportunity.
We establish that advantage
by first determining the average number of times you will roll the
dice (on
average) during a typical hand. We call
that the “point-cycle roll-duration”, and we use that
while factoring in the
global-bets that you typically make. In
doing so, we can calculate your
approximate dice-influencing
edge over each of these respective multi-number wagers.
Your “edge-per-hand” also
dictates what your starting session-bankroll really should be in
order
for a given betting-method to have the best chance of successfully exploiting
your
current advantage over the casino.
We’ll be exploring that subject in intense detail
(with easy to follow
charts) in Part Eighteen of this series, but for now I’ll tell you this:
It is critical to note
that…
Ø
If your bankroll is
under-funded or your money is too thinly spread over too
many low-advantage or
negative-expectation bets, your chances for
success are radically diminished even
if you have a dominant edge over the house.
Ø
Equally, your edge-per-hand
also controls how many properly-sized geared-to-
skill hands you will have to
throw, on average, before doubling your current
bankroll.
Again, your
dice-influencing skill on its own is not enough to guarantee a
profit.
You have to wager your
properly-sized bets on the numbers where you have developed the
strongest
validated edge…and I hate to tell you this, but any other non-advantaged
bets are
just a waste of your money because they not only cut into your
profit-margin, but they also erode
the very bankroll that you’ll need in order
to properly exploit your edge on the bets where you do
have the
advantage.
Ø
Your advantage over the house and your average roll-duration
dictates not only the best bets
to make, but also the proper size of each of them and the
overall size of bankroll you’ll need
in order to properly utilize that edge.
Okay, that’s enough of a
preview of this and the next couple of chapters in this series; let’s jump
right in.
Bridging the Skill-to-Profit Gap
As we’ve seen thus far in the
first sixteen chapters, your advantage over the house is not static on a
roll-to-roll-to-roll basis during any given hand. Rather, the over-riding threat of a 7-Out is an ever-present
danger
that has to be recognized for what it is…it is part of the game. As a result, we generally only
get a certain
number of rolls per hand to weave our precision-shooting magic. That point-cycle period
is dictated by our
Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (“SSR”), and although I’ll readily admit that our
SRR isn’t the
be-all and end-all of dice-influencing; it does figure very
prominently into reconciling what it is we can
actually do with our
precision-shooting skill once we have developed a slight edge over the house.
We also know that our
Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SSR) dictates the average number of point-cycle rolls
that
we will throw before 7’ing-Out; so obviously if we ignore that;
then we are likely ignoring all kinds of
profit-making opportunities too…and
doing that will likely leave you feeling short-changed when you
compare
the amount of profit you actually end up with versus the amount of skill you
know you have.
The whole idea behind this series
is to help you bridge the gap between your skill and your
rightful
profit. We do that by
properly structuring our bets in a size and proportion to our current
skill-level. As
such, it would be silly if we
didn’t figure the 7’s appearance-rate into our advantage-play bet-
calculations or if we
ignored how long our wagers generally stay in positive-expectation
territory before combined
probabilities casts them back into negative-expectancy.
Let me put that into bumper-sticker speak:
Get your work done in
time…make a profit.
Too slow on your
advantage…produce a loss.
Casino Battle or
Business Encounter?
What most players perceive as a casino
battle, is in fact just a down-to-earth business encounter where
we are simply using our
dice-influencing skills to derive a net-profit from the wagers that we place on
the
layout.
As I mentioned, the life-expectancy of each hand is
obviously quite limited, and therefore our betting
-method has to
recognize the limited time during each hand in which a consistently predictable
profit can
be derived. To ignore that
fact by leaving our originally sized wagers out there for too long
actually devalues and erodes the net-profit that we’ve won up until that point
in any given hand.
Additionally,
it also minimizes the overall profit we are likely
to emerge with from any given hand that we throw.
In other words, the bets that remain on the layout
when our hand ends obviously have to be deducted from
any bet-payouts we received during that hand in order to
determine net-profitability for that particular turn
with the dice.
The Deadly Sins of Advantage Play
Many players either start out with wagers that are way
too small, hoping that they’ll turn their matchstick
into a lumberyard
by way of a once in a lifetime roll; or they leave way too much money out
on the
layout for far too long without first locking-up a relatively
substantial retained profit (in relation
to the overall size of their total exposed wagers).
As precision-shooters, we have to use the average
point-cycle roll-duration juncture to determine where
the optimal
regression-point for our particular bets actually is, and then ideally we would
lock in a net-profit
at that point. If our
roll continues beyond there; then we simply continue to harvest a profit from
our
remaining wagers and we can even start to increase them if we
choose to.
Now clearly, many of our hands will go far beyond
that average roll-duration point, and since we still have
active, albeit
lower-valued bets on the layout; we are still be able to reap the benefit and
even ramp them
up if the hand continues.
Most importantly though, regression-betting allows us
get to the net-profit point in more of our
hands more often than any other
style, form, or method of wagering.
The added benefit of reaching net-profit at an earlier
point in nearly every hand; is that many regression-
style bettors find that
they are better able to relax about the money-anxiety they used to feel, and
instead
they are now more fully able to focus on the task of actually
de-randomizing the dice even further.
Since
the net-profit comes to them sooner and on a much more consistent
basis than before; the anxiety that
they used to feel, has been replaced with a
higher level of shooting confidence and income reliability.
So Is It A Casino Battle or a Simple
Advantage-Play Business Encounter?
Instead of fearing or loathing the 7; many
dice-influencers have wisely adapted their betting-
methods to recognize and match its overall
appearance-rate in order to take full advantage of the
fattest, most frequently occurring part of their
roll-duration curve…all the while profitably emerging
from the whole process with a highly predictable
revenue stream.
We have to keep in mind that while our precision-shooting
skill itself may remain constant throughout a
hand, the math of
dice-influencing dictates that that skill can only be considered in
context with the
ever-looming presence of a roll-ending 7-Out.
Savvy precision-shooters understand that you simply don’t
need to throw mythical unending hands of 50
or 100 or 300 rolls in order to
prove your manhood or emerge with a net-profit; rather, they understand the
importance of structuring their bets in such a way so that their average non-headline-making
hand
produces a steady and reliable profit too. Now THAT is what any mature adult would consider to be
an
accomplishment.
Your long hands will take care of themselves and you should
make as much money off of those as you
possibly can, but the
bread-and-butter of dice-influencing revenue is generated by using your
EVERY
DAY, EVERY SESSION hands to make a profit nearly every time you pick up the
dice.
In the simplest terms, properly structured regression-bets
that are optimized for your current skill-level,
means that you can derive
consistent profit from your low-average short-duration hands and not just
from
the exceptional long ones. To my way of
thinking, that isn’t so much “a battle” as it is a common
sense business
exchange. You are simply investing a
small portion of your gaming bankroll at the
craps table in order to get a profitable return on your
dice-influencing skills.
To an advantage-player who uses
regression-style betting, the casino battle that most gamblers think
they are fighting; is instead just a straight-forward positive-expectation business
encounter. An A-P
dice-influencer
regards the wagers that he makes on his own validated bets simply as investments
in his own verified and confirmed dice-influencing skills.
Like I said, if you ignore your point-cycle
roll-duration; then there’s an excellent chance that
significant profits are
also going to continue to ignore you.
Ø
If the dice-influencer gets his work done in time, by having
his strongest-edge bets produce
net-revenue before the 7 shows up; then he
makes a profit.
Ø
If he is too slow to capitalize on his advantage because his
bets are too widely spread or
too thinly wagered; then he produces a loss.
Or as that A-P D-I bumper-sticker
should read:
Get your work done in
time…make a profit.
Too slow on your
advantage…produce a loss.
Simplifying Your
Bet-Investment Decisions
If we have to
regard our bet-decisions as “investments”, and we restrict our wagers to the
ones
where we have the strongest-edge; then how do multi-number global bets like
Inside,
Across, Even, Outside and Iron Cross wagers fit into that equation?
To figure that
out, we first have to consider what each hit on one of these global-type bets
will
typically pay,
and how many flat-bet hits it will require to pay for itself (before reaching
profitability);
then we
have to figure out how many hits our current dice-influencing skill is likely to
generate
during an
average hand.
Armed with
proper information, we can then make an informed decision regarding various
betting-
methods we might be considering.
So let’s look at these global-bets to see exactly what each of
them
requires in terms of making them net-profitable under various SRR skill-rates.
Flat-bet Hits Required
to Break-Even
|
Global-bet
|
$22-Inside
|
$32-Across
|
$20-Outside
|
$22-
Even
|
$22-
Iron Cross
|
Average Wagering Unit
(Value of total bets divided by number of wagers)
|
$5.50
|
$5.33
|
$5.00
|
$5.50
|
$5.50
|
Weighted-Payout
(Average Payout/hit)
|
$7.00
|
$7.50
|
$7.86
|
$7.75
|
$4.10
|
Hits Required
to reach break-even point for this
bet
|
3.14 |
4.27 |
2.54 |
2.84
|
5.37 |
SRR-6
Expected Hits/Hand
Hits/Hand above Break-even
Expected
Net-Profit/hand
|
3.0
(-0.14)
(-$1.00)
|
4.0
(-0.27)
(-$2.03)
|
2.3
(-0.24)
(-$1.89)
|
2.67
(-0.17)
(-$1.32)
|
5.0
(-0.37)
(-$1.52)
|
SRR-6.5
Expected Hit-Rate
Hits/Hand above Break-even
Expected
Net-Profit/hand
|
3.28
0.14
$0.98
|
4.4
0.4
$3.00
|
2.55
0.01
$0.08
|
2.93
0.09
$0.70
|
5.5
0.13
$0.53
|
SRR-7
Expected Hit-Rate
Hits/Hand above Break-even
Expected
Net-Profit/hand
|
3.6
0.46
$3.20
|
4.8
0.53
$3.98
|
2.8
0.26
$2.04
|
3.2
0.36
$2.79
|
6.0
0.63
$2.58
|
SRR-7.5
Expected Hit-Rate
Hits/Hand above Break-even
Expected
Net-Profit/hand
|
3.88
0.74
$5.18
|
5.17
1.17
$8.78
|
3.05
0.51
$4.01
|
3.44
0.60
$4.65
|
6.5
1.13
$4.63
|
SRR-8
Expected Hit-Rate
Hits/Hand above Break-even
Expected
Net-Profit/hand
|
4.1
0.96
$6.70
|
5.6
1.33
$9.98
|
3.3
0.76
$5.97
|
3.73
0.89
$6.90
|
7.0
1.63
$6.68
|
SRR-8.5
Expected Hit-Rate
Hits/Hand above Break-even
Expected
Net-Profit/hand
|
4.45
1.31
$9.17
|
5.94
1.94
$14.55
|
3.5
0.96
$7.55
|
3.99
1.15
$8.91
|
7.5
2.13
$8.73
|
SRR-9
Expected Hits/Hand
Hits/Hand above Break-even
Expected
Net-Profit/hand
|
4.75
1.61
$11.25
|
6.4
2.13
$15.95
|
3.7
1.16
$9.12
|
4.27
1.43
$11.08
|
8.0
2.63
$10.78
|
Now keep in mind that this
chart shows FLAT-betting (where you neither regress nor increase
your bet at any time during a hand). It
shows how many same-bet hits are required for each of
these global-bets to pay for
themselves, and it shows how much profit-per-hand a player is likely
to end
up with at the end of each hand.
Now
obviously these are averages and you’ll likely encounter quite a bit of
fluctuation from
hand to hand, session to
session and casino visit to casino visit; but overall, this chart shows
the amount of net-profit you
are likely to derive from each of these global bets, when averaged
over a reasonable number of
in-casino trials.
What Else Does
That Chart Tell Us?
The next thing that the
chart tells us, is that even when you have multiple numbers covered at the
same
time, and even though you are shooting with an advantage over the house; you
only have a
slight advantage when you are flat-betting (or
calling for the “same bet” when you get paid); and
you only have a
limited amount of time (as measured by point-cycle rolls) in which to
extract a net
profit from most of the hands that you throw.
The figures on the chart
include everything from the super short point-then-7-out hands to the
seemingly
unending ones that go on and on.
However, when you look at your profit-making
opportunities when measured
over the expected roll-duration and the expected hit-rate for each
of these respective
global-bets for your particular skill; it is easy to make a very compelling
argument for the use of
regression-type bets in order to safely get the maximum amount of net-
profit off the table as soon
as possible.
Now some people will tell
you that regression-betting merely redistributes your wins to the early
part of your point-cycle roll and minimizes it in the unlikely event that your
hand goes on and on and
on; and that would be true if your average
point-cycle roll-duration lasted much, much longer than it
actually does. Sadly though, your point-cycle usually only
lasts for a very short period of time, so it
makes sense to make money from it as
soon and as often as you can.
Ø
Regression-betting is designed for “average” conditions where your
global-bets enjoy their
normally expected appearance-rate.
Ø
If you bet like every hand will
be THE hand of the century, then your bankroll will likely be
exhausted long
before your baseless optimism is.
Regression-betting is
designed to put more profit into your hands more often and more
efficiently and
on a much steadier basis than same-bet flat-wagering ever will.
In other words, a properly
structured regression-bet takes much of the guess-work out of wondering
if this
hand will be THE hand.
Instead, by using your current skill-level to extract net-profit out of
most
of your hands, you don’t have to worry or hope or wish; you simply have to
shoot the same
way you normally do…and the profit is yours for the taking.
The Untold Story
of Compound Multi-Number Bets
Since we now know exactly
what it takes to turn multi-number global-bets into net-positive winners;
we
can use that information to precisely figure out the true-edge we
have over the casino when we
optimally regress our bets
at the right time during the point-cycle; and therefore we can calculate
not only how much of a
bankroll we should be armed with in order to properly exploit our advantage,
but also how many hands it
will likely take to double our current bankroll.
That’s the untold story of
compound multi-number global-bets, and you are going to be hearing all
about it
for the first time in Part Eighteen of this series. I can promise you this…
It is one of my most
important articles that you will ever read.
I hope you’ll join me for
that. In the meantime,
Good Luck and Good Skills
at the tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
Back
to The Mad Professor Speaks Main Page!