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How
To Get THERE from HERE
Part
III
The
idea behind this series is a simple one.
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We
want to make more money, without taking more risks.
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We
want to be flexible in our betting-approach, yet firm in our discipline.
Ø
We
want to be adequately bankrolled to survive the lows, and take maximum advantage of the
highs.
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We
want to unearth revenue-opportunities from our current Precision-Shooting talents.
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We
want to discover new options as our dicesetting skills continue to evolve.
To
get from HERE to THERE, we want to use our current dice-shooting
skills, along with our carefully employed betting-funds; to make bigger profits, yet
endure less primary risk along the way.
In
other words…
We
want to REACH
profit SOONER, and have MORE winning sessions more OFTEN, and then once we get there; we
want to make MORE profit from the same number of rolls than we are making now.
A
simple idea, but carrying it out is far from easy.
So
let’s continue this journey…
A
Little More Clarity Please
I
want to add a bit more clarity to the idea of locking up a 50% profit on your exposed bets
before starting to press-up your winning Place-bet wagers.
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I
let each hand (each turn that I get with the dice as they circle around the table) stand
on its own in terms of profitability, but obviously I also keep a firm watch on my overall
session-profit at any given time.
Ø
I
use the 50% profit-benchmark as the starting-point from which to begin my ramped-up
bet-Pressing. That 50% profit is derived from one Steep Regression hit, and then one
additional Place-bet payout at the now-reduced bet-level.
Ø
The
initial regression gives me ~30% net-profit over and above whatever money I have currently
left out on the table. That is profit from this (my CURRENT) hand. After one additional
Place-bet hit at the newly reduced bet-level, I will have a 50% profit locked-up in my
rack. All of that is based on the money that
I've "recaptured" during the initial Steep Regression, plus the additional
profit that just came in from the second Place-bet hit.
Ø
Profit-in-my-rack
(on a per-hand basis) is measured both in total NET-Profit dollars, and as a percentage of
the money that I have on the layout at any given time. That way, I know how much
net-profit I made during any given hand, and also the amount of money I managed to lock-up
versus how much I left on the layout when the 7-Out occurred (as a %).
Turn-Ons and Turn-Offs
Rarely,
and I do mean RARELY, I will turn my Place-bets “Off” for one or two
rolls. That will only occur if my toss-focus
has been seriously interrupted, and I’m not able to refocus by the time the stickman
returns the dice to my position.
Typically,
if a protracted payout-dispute or a shoving-match breaks into a fight; then I’ll turn
my bets OFF until order is restored, or one of the combatants is unconscious, or first-aid
is rendered. If fresh money is thrown on the
layout ON or NEAR MY LANDING-ZONE or ROLLING-LANE, or the subsequent stack of buy-in chips
(“cheques-out”) are in the same general landing area; then I’ll
signal the base-dealer at the other end of the table to “ship” the chips to the
player or gather up and bring in the fresh dough off of the table. Either way, it generally doesn’t break my
concentration at all. I simply wait for the
dealer to finish transacting his business with the new player, and then I continue my
roll.
There
is no need to let minor interruptions become a major distraction.
When
you are able to control your emotions, you are in a better position to control the dice.
If
one of the dice UNINTENTIONALLY goes off the table when I’m shooting, it doesn’t
usually faze me as far as game-focus is concerned. I’ll
usually take a new die instead of waiting for the ritual cube-inspection process to be
completed. Now THAT whole search-find-and-inspection
process can disturb more shooters rhythms than the simple process of picking a new dice
from the spilled-bowl. It’s up to you to
decide WHAT bothers you and what doesn’t, and then make your
“bets-off” decisions based on THAT instead of relying on superstitions that may
play havoc with other peoples inhibitions, but don’t have any affect on yours.
It’s
YOUR head you have to contend with and placate, not THEIRS.
If
you buy into everyone else’s superstitions and gambling-idiosyncrasies, then you’re
simply adding more mental crap that you’ll eventually have to overcome before you
master this game. Why make it harder on
yourself?
If,
during a long-roll I really NEED a momentary pause, and the between-throws-payout process
is moving too quickly; then I’ll intentionally slow the game down to a point where my
focus and composure is where it’s supposed to be.
In that event, I MIGHT resort to intentionally throwing the dice off the
table and calling for “same dice” if the stickman doesn’t heed my polite
request to slow the speed-dice game to under 300 rolls per hour (especially if there are
only a few other players at the table, and the game is proceeding at a fast, but
manageable pace), but really, there’s rarely a need to resort to such tactics.
The
Stress of Turning Bets “OFF”
A
perfect way for a lot of players to ADD even MORE stress to their game-focus, is to
turn their bets’ “Off”, only to then see a Place-number that they had a
huge bet on, come in.
When
they realize the apparent “loss of income” from that one move, they are usually
SO anxious to turn their bets back “On”, that they forget to fully re-focus on
the single most important task at hand…making a perfect throw every time. The anxiety created by turning the Place-bets
“Off”, and the frustration of seeing a high-wager (but now, non-paying)
Place-bet outcome, is usually enough to rattle most players into losing their focus,
concentration and intensity altogether. At
that point, you might as well piss on the campfire and call in the hounds, ‘cause
this hunt for profit is almost always OVER!
While
I am not saying you shouldn’t ever turn your bets “Off”; I am
saying that you have to handle the next-roll outcome, whether good or bad, with equal
aplomb. Likewise, while it is a good idea to
turn your bets “Off” if you’re your game-focus is disturbed or out of
whack; you shouldn’t be in too big of a rush to turn them back “On” UNTIL
your GAME-FOCUS is the over-riding guide to your decision and it’s
NOT being made by your “I’m not getting paid when everyone else is” ANXIETY-FOCUS.
Heavy
and MP’s Candid Hit ‘n’ Run Discussion
Heavy
and I were having a chat the other week about the way each of our craps-game approach has
evolved over the past year or so.
Using
the Hit ‘n’ Run as a Profit-Maker
We
both agreed that the Hit and Run portion of our game has improved to a point where
it makes overwhelming sense to bet as much on our own rolls, and then move on to another
shooting opportunity at another table, or to another casino, or even another nearby gaming
jurisdiction; instead of waiting around and betting on random-rollers all day long.
Heavy
added:
“The
money a skilled dicesetter makes can be fairly predictable, at least on a weekly or
monthly basis – but betting on a random-roller is NEVER predictable.”
No-Strings-Attached
Lone-Wolf Hit ‘n’ Run
Heavy
went on to say that there appeared to be increasing merit in the idea of doing the Lone
Wolf thing (a quick entry into and out of the game, with no partners, and little, if
any, wagering on random-rollers) as a way of maximizing profit in the shortest amount of
time.
While
the idea of craps as a social game certainly provides an added dimension of fun and
camaraderie; it may not be the most profitable use of your table-time. On the other hand,
we both agree that craps IS the most socially dynamic of all the casino diversions,
and therefore that element should not be totally ignored as a vital aspect of the game.
However,
skilled shooters often reach the point when they have to decide whether they want to
increase the earnings from their skill-based shooting, and therefore seek out more
shooting opportunities; or whether they are willing to sacrifice the lions share of their
profit in favor of staying and playing at the same table with the same group of friends,
and strictly enjoying the social-goodwill dividend as their principal reward.
The
idea of doing a Hit’n’Run at multiple tables, in multiple casinos, in possibly
one or more jurisdictions on the same day, certainly appeals to my “flying under
the radar” concept of not wearing out your welcome at one place; as well as
appealing to the idea of going into any given casino with the intent of throwing just one
or two net-profitable hands before moving on to the next one down the line.
In
that regard, it is more difficult to carry it off if you are on a schedule with structured
hook-up times and you know that people are counting on your presence. Limiting your ability to move around when and
where you want to because of social commitments, can also have the effect of keeping you
betting at tables and in situations where normally you would have bailed out of long
before. The social pressure to “stick
around for one more cycle” often turns what should have been a minor loss
into a major setback.
Using
Hit ‘n’ Run To Improve Your Performance
Despite Heavy and I both having an innate sense of betting opportunities based on the
trends and streaks of a random-game, we both agree that the REAL profit (size-wise
and consistency-wise) is found in the lower-risk wagers associated with our own skilled
Precision-Shooting or that of other similarly skilled players.
Using
a Hit ‘n’ Run strategy also forces you to avoid betting on few, if any,
random-rollers.
Heavy’s
“Get in…Get it done…Get gone” strategy has the
additional benefit of improving your ability to adapt to various tables at different
casinos MORE QUICKLY. In a way, the Hit
‘n’ Run strategy forces you to improve your ability to acclimatize, adapt and
groove-in your Precision-Shooting at all sorts of different tables much quicker and with
much more confidence.
The
entire “Get in…Get it done…Get gone” Hit ‘n’
Run approach makes you a more adaptable player who is able to extract more profit from a
wider variety of tables. Concurrently, it
makes you get rid of those pre-conceived ideas of, “I can’t shoot for shit on
those 16-foot tables”, or “I can’t make a point with those dang
matte-finish 11/16th blue dice” or, “I can only play on one
table out of the 32 that are in my area because all the others are too bouncy”. It makes you deal with some of the self-inflicted
limitations that you’ve unnecessarily placed upon yourself. The previous justification for doing so may have
long ago been overcome by your continuing evolution as a Precision-Shooter, yet you’ve
continued to limit your opportunity-horizons by staying within outmoded boundaries and
mental confines.
I’m
not saying that all of those “can’t win” characteristics are in your
head…far from it! In fact, I’m
saying that you sometimes have to force more improvements into your game, in
order to force more profit out of it.
The wider the variety of table-conditions that you learn to play
under, the better able you will be to profitably overcome all of them.
Validating
Your Skill and Generating More H ‘n’ R Profit
Let
me reiterate that we both agree that the REAL profit (size-wise and
consistency-wise) is found in the lower-risk wagers associated with our own skilled
Precision-Shooting.
Now
let me add that low-risk bets do not necessarily mean low-DOLLAR bets. Rather, it simply means that you make the wagers
that have the most consistent and most net-profit returns for you. It’s that session-to-session predictability
that brings in the reliable profits, and if you know roughly how much you can make per-day
or per-week; then you are worlds away from a randomly-determined game where it is hard to
say how much you’ll win or lose at any given point in time.
Making
low-risk wagers is all about knowing your most dominant Signature Numbers at the REAL-world
casino tables; then pounding the bets when they start hitting.
Using
a Hit ‘n’ Run approach validates your Precision-Shooting skills and thereby
generates more net-profit opportunities than if you saddle your game with endless
random-roller or unqualified-shooter bets. H
‘n’ R has the effect of proving your skills to yourself, and demonstrating the
profit-potential of your own shooting in a much more predictable and actionable way.
It
takes almost all random-roller betting out of the equation, and replaces it with a higher
number of advantage-play hands that you yourself will be throwing.
Hit
‘n’ Run Proves Your Strengths and Showcases Your Weakness
The
better you know yourself as a shooter, the better prepared you’ll be to deal with the
strengths and the weaknesses in your current game.
Ideally,
you’ll play up your strengths by betting into the opportunities they offer. Concurrently, you’ll shield your weaknesses
from showing themselves too often until you are able to get them under control or even
turned around and working in your favor. In
knowing yourself, you can make the decisions and choices that profitably suit your
character, yet shield the ones that would diminish any of the revenue that your strong
efforts have made.
It
comes down to character and maturity and knowing yourself.
It’s
about knowing where your strengths are, and recognizing (and seeking to improve) your
weaknesses. For some, those weaknesses may be
too many bets spread over too wide a range of wagers.
For others, it will mean not ending their session with a modest profit, or
playing way beyond their exhaustion level. No
matter what your weaknesses are; you have to know them as well as you know your strengths,
and then work on both ends of the spectrum to ensure that your strengths will carry the
day, and that your weaknesses don’t SPOIL your day.
The
Right Attitude…the Right Approach…the Right Bets
Heavy
stated:
Lately
I’ve adopted what you could call a Blackjack advantage-players attitude. When you have an advantage you bet it up. When you don't - you sit it out. It’s very sensible if you ask me. If you have a player who can toss Hardways on
command, then why not toss out a $100 hard eight and play Hit ‘n’ Run.
This really speaks to where my thinking about betting strategies has gone lately. More and more I'm moving away from Inside or
Across-betting, and focusing on using those same dollars as Odds on Pass-Line bets in
those casinos that will allow 10x, 20x and 100x-Odds.
I see a lot of these folks I'll dub "point shooters" in the
casino, and it seems that by and large they do a heck of a job.
Again,
it plays to the “Get in, get it done and get gone” aspect of the game. A guy who has a half-hour hand draws attention. A guy who steps up, sets a point, makes his point,
then colors in - does not.
Heavy
makes a good and valid point once again.
A
professional full-time dicesetting friend of mine has been successfully using this
approach for almost two years now. At first I
was taken back by the fact he had huge, and I do mean HUGE Pass-Line bets with
maxed-out Odds, all the while, he didn’t have ANY Place-bets in action despite
some truly outstanding hands. When I quizzed
him on this, his reply was pretty much in line with Heavy’s “Point Shooter”
idea.
Although
I was making a fair bit of money off of his excellent shooting (based on me making
Place-bets and a much smaller PL-bet with Odds), he was out-distancing my profits by a
WIDE margin. All of his profit was generated
by his ONE large PL-bet with maxed-out Odds versus my substantial (but still smaller than
his PL-bet and maxed-Odds) Place-bets and modest PL-bet with Odds. On one hand, I was thinking that I
was capitalizing off of his unrealized Place-bet opportunities, yet it was HIM who
was really capitalizing on his single-minded (and single-betted) determination to repeat
the PL-Point.
I
must be a slow learner because it took me almost a year of thinking that I was
doing the right thing while he was rolling, while in fact, he was also doing the
right thing, but in an even more profitable way.
I’ve
said it before, and I’ll repeat it again…I am STILL learning ways to pull
the most profit from this game, and for the talented dicesetter, “point shooting”
holds increasingly special interest for me.
Bigger
Action/Shorter Exposure
Heavy’s
"bigger action/shorter exposure" concept has even more merit when you
live in an area where there are multiple casinos within close proximity to each other. You can pop into one place, unleash a good hand,
and then move onto the next one. You don’t
wear out your welcome, and you don’t get mired down with a lot of unnecessary wagers
on random-rollers. At the same time, you don’t
have so much spread-action in play that all the suits gather round to conduct the
supervisory equivalent of a rectal exam on you.
I've
been doing pretty much the same Hit ‘n’ Run thing over the past five or six
months, although, initially it wasn't really intentional. I had limited playing time due
to Ms. MP's on-going health problems, so I had to make the most of ANY playing
time.
I
still make Place-bets, but I’ve increased the value of my Passline and Odds-bet combo
regardless of whether the PL-Point is one of my most dominant Signature Numbers or not. As a result, my revenues have increased to a point
where I can see a substantive increase on a month-over-month basis.
I’ve
also gotten MUCH more aggressive on my Pressing (after the initial regression), and not
only max-out my PL-Odds, but if the PL-Point is one of my Signature Numbers, I'll
actually pump up my PL flat-bet to permit even higher levels of Free Odds. While that
particular play goes "against the book" in terms of house-advantage
(H.A.), I have validated it in terms of much higher net-profit payouts. Clearly you should NOT be putting large
bets out there UNLESS you have first validated and verified that you have a decided
advantage OVER the house…otherwise, it is just so much reckless gambling that you are
engaged in.
I
am not here to gamble, I’m here to win.
Dealing
With My Own Mental Limitations
I
will also freely admit that I HAVEN'T increased my Hardway action as much as the sheer
math of my own S-N's indicate that I should, because I hate having to replace a pumped up
Hardway-bet when the Easy-way rolls. I still wrestle with that equation...not from a
"math" perspective, but from a psychological one.
While
the numbers indicate that I get a fairly high percentage of on-axis, primary-face outcomes
on two of the Hardways (H-6 and H-8), I have not yet reached the point where I am
comfortable enough to throw out a huge initial wager on those two Hardways. Yes, the math indicates that my shooting has a
significant edge over that bet, however, I still prefer to use a portion of the initial
winnings from either of the two HW’s to pump up the bet-volume instead of initially
throwing down big-money from my bank-rail.
I’ll
readily admit that it is more of a psychological barrier than a financial one, but it is
something that I am dealing with on an on-going basis.
I AM improving in that department, but I am no where near where I
should be in terms of putting out the huge initial bets on those two primary Hardways
despite the big edge that my own rolls indicate that I have. I’ll keep you posted on my progress.
Shooting-Improvements…Bet-Tuning…Profit
Opportunities
Heavy
and I discussed the fact that I am STILL making changes to the way I play this
game, and ESPECIALLY the way that I BET it. As I mentioned before, my actual
table-time has been reduced quite a bit, yet my earnings-per-hour have risen even more
dramatically, so my bet-level tweaking is obviously paying substantial dividends.
During
our far-ranging discussions, Heavy and I also discussed the possible impact of having
Sanford Wong entering into the dicesetting fray with his current research for his new book
on Precision-Shooting. We both speculated that if Wong’s book is successful, and in
light of the fact that he is quite respected by his math peers and reviled by the casino
corporations insofar as BJ counter-measures that may be applied to our craft is concerned;
then the Hit ‘n’ Run concept may take on even more useful significance in the
near future.
I'll
readily admit that over the past three months or so, I have ramped up the percentage of
sessions that I would classify as Hit’n’Run to a point where they now constitute
about 25% to 35% of my play.
Given
the excellent financial results that I’ve seen from them, I may actually step up the
frequency of those quick Hit ‘n’ Run raids even more. On top of that, I’m thinking of spreading my
action even farther geographically afield, by hitting more casinos in even MORE
jurisdictions, more often than I do now.
How Does This Relate to YOU?
One
of the things that I came away from that discussion with, was the way that any skilled
Precision-Shooter could apply the Hit ‘n’ Run approach to his own game. I not only enjoyed the discussion with Heavy, but
gained a greater understanding, appreciation and validation of a method that we were both
using, but in relative isolation from each other. I
appreciate him sharing his ideas with me.
So
how does all of this relate to you?
By
now you should know approximately how much money you make off of your own rolling versus
how much you make or lose on other random-roller wagers.
By
now you should also know how much each TYPE of bet that you make is earning or
losing for you. For example:
Ø
You
should know by now if your Hardway-bets are net-winners or net-losers.
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You
should know how much money your Signature Numbers bring in for you.
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As
well, you should know how many Point-then-Out hands you throw compared to “average”
8 or 9 or 10-roll hands.
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You
should know how effective your Steep Regressions are.
Ø
You
should know if the free-Odds you are putting behind your Passline Point are substantial
enough to turn the game in your favor (based on your dicesetting skill), and whether
pumping up the volume of those Odds would mean the difference between staying in the
break-even phase or breaking out of it, and into higher realms of profitability.
Ø
You
should know whether you should tighten the reins on your Hop-bets or other Prop-action
that you make.
Ø
You
should know just how much each TYPE of bet that you are making is earning for you
or draining from you.
If
you don’t know THAT, then you have a bit of work to do before stepping up to
the next snack-bracket of reliable profitability.
Now
the bonus of knowing all of that, besides knowing where your profits are coming from and
where your losses are going to; is that it will help you determine whether you should be
stepping up the size of some of your bets, or concurrently scaling back a few of the
others.
In
doing so, you are then able to measure the relative profitability (or unaffordability) of
creating more shooting situations for yourself.
Those
are the things that come with the KNOWING of how good you are, and how good your
profits could be. Clearly, that is one of the
ways that serious players chart out a path to get from HERE to THERE!
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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