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FAQs
About The Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method
Part II "Sometimes
the blindingly obvious is still difficult for some people to see." Genesis
Revisited
The
Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method is designed for choppy tables and prescribes
a short limit on allowable losses. For
that reason it is not made for warm-trending or hot tables where two or more shooters in
succession are making two, three, four or more PL-Points in a row. If that were the case,
I would have called it the Bet Against As Many HOT-Shooters As You Can Afford To
Lose To Method. Theres
a short leash or short Loss-Limit on it because the improbable
IS NOT the impossible. It
is structured to give you the best possible chance to make money, while concurrently
putting a cap on the total amount of money that you are willing to invest in this
random-roller venture. When
some people look at the total investment of $285 (at the $5 base-bet level), they see
nothing but risk; yet those same people are willing to risk and lose just as much money
(if not more) by using more conventional (but even more volatile)
betting-approaches without a second thought. Properly
Appraising The Current Trend
A
big part of successfully using the C-T/S-L Method is to be able to honestly appraise the
current table trend. Some
people have a knack for it, and some people let their personal attitude and mental
disposition unduly pre-influence any of their decisions.
That cant be good in a situation where you have to let the trend (and
not your jaundiced attitude or viewpoint) set the stage for what I would call momentum
style betting. In
situations where you are riding the trend or the momentum-wave, you have to be keenly
aware of what is happening now, and where it fits into the grand scheme of things. If you play this game long enough, or you are
conscious enough and attentive enough to observe the ebb and flow of how the dice get
hot
get cold
get warm
and get cool; youll soon be able to anticipate
the highs, the mid-points and the lows with astounding accuracy. Properly
gauging the speed, direction, momentum and likely peak or apogee of the current trend-wave
(plus anticipating the next trough and the up-shift that follows that) offers plenty of
decent betting prospects. You
have to sense them
you have to see them
and you have to bet with them if
you so choose. Now
I am not saying that youll be able to predict what will happen on the very next
roll. Rather, I am saying that if you become globally
aware of how trends develop, peak and peter out; then over a period of time, your
trend-spotting accuracy improves to the point where you are predominantly right and
sometimes, though rarely, wrong. With
that in mind, it becomes blindingly obvious that the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash is not made
for situations where random-rollers are throwing tons of Come-Out winners and a seeming
unending cascade of Box-numbers.
Ø
Its
made for those times when neither side is winning with any level of predictability or
sustainability.
Ø
Its
made for those aggravatingly frustrating times when a shooter makes maybe one or two
Passline-Points and then 7s-Out just after his next Come-Out.
Ø
Its
made for those times when players are making a couple of Come-Out winners, but just
cant seem to get anything going as far as PL-Point production is concerned.
Ø
Its
made for those win-one, lose one situations where Rightsiders and
Darksiders alike are seeing their bankroll slowly eroded by the choppy conditions. THAT is when the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash
Method shows its true colors. Why
It Works BECAUSE Of (And Not Despite Of) Casino-Math In
one of our Message Board discussions a reader (Craneshot) correctly observed
that my C-T/S-L Method is quite close (as far as the math is concerned) to being a reverse
of the Fire-bet (where a player has to hit every box-number to win a large payout). My
Choppy-Table Short-Leash is indeed based on the same solid math that the casino uses in
offering the Fire-bet. In doing so, the house knows (as do we) that there is a low chance
of a player hitting the objective...but even if they do, the casino has earned enough off
of that Fire-bet wager, and will CONTINUE to earn enough, to offset any losses they
incur on the occasional big buck payout. Likewise,
the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method will sometimes lose, even on PROPERLY QUALIFIED
choppy tables
theres no getting around that fact
thats why
its not an unending keep betting until you go broke Martingale
system. Though you do have to increase your
bet after a loss, a reasonable Loss-Limit is applied to it simply because we KNOW
that even the choppiest of tables can turn around without prior written notice or warning
and become downright warm or even hot. However
those short-leash losses are quite easily overcome, offset and SURPASSED by money
that you make from the times when it does work. It's not rocket-science...it's not
voodoo...it's just using the ebb and flow of properly qualified choppy conditions
to garner a steady profit. Be
Prepared To Lose
Ø
If
you use the C-T/S-L Method all the time
you will lose!
Ø
If
you try to buck the trend when the table turns warm
you will lose!
Ø
If
you dont properly pre-qualify the table and the trend
you will lose!
Ø
If
you dont believe what I just said, and you insist on using it outside of its
prescribed parameters
you will lose! The
C-T/S-L specifically keeps you from losing on back-to-back HOT shooters or warm-trending
tables because (and quite obviously) the table is no longer choppy. The
genesis of WHY it generally works when it is supposed to (only on choppy and
cool-trending tables), yet is still NET-Profitable despite the occasional $285 loss; is
because
the math of the game
the strength of the 7
the volatility of
occurrences
and its selected use at the proper time
affords an opportunity for
us to actually seize upon the very erratic choppiness that the casino itself relies upon
to make most of its craps pit money. If
neither side is winning in a predominant fashion, then the house is making money from both
sides (Do and Dont players alike). The
C-T/S-L effectively harnesses that same 60%+ choppiness factor and accomplishes equivalent
profitability for you. Choppiness
Ensures Casino-Corporation Profit
The
choppiness of the game is exactly where the casino makes the lions share of its
craps-table money. The
house generally doesnt make much money off of hot tables (it generally experiences
the largest loses during hot-streaks, so it has to make up for it during the other
periods), and though it makes money from the cold ones, it doesnt make as much as it
theoretically should because after a while rightside-only players may not switch sides (as
some are so loathe to do), but theyll generally cut their betting back. Its in that middle-ground choppiness (that
occurs roughly 60%+ of the time) that pays for all the modern golden-hued Hanging Gardens
of Babylon that we have come to call our favorite casinos. The
C-T/S-L tames that back and forth whipsaw choppiness into a viable betting prospect. While
most popular methods favor either hot or cold extremes for them to fair well; the
Choppy-Table/Short-Leash addresses the toughest of conditions where the dice are an equal
opportunity executioner to both sides. Used
wisely and under the proper conditions
it performs as designed. Misused and applied to the wrong
conditions
it quickly shreds your money into casino confetti. Maintaining
Perspective
"MP,
I love this Choppy Table thing of yours, but its especially difficult for me to
stand there while waiting for the shooter to 7-Out. Sometimes
some of these guys throw some good rolls, and its very tempting to get in on it. How do you handle that temptation?" On
a choppy table, you are going see some shooters throw a string of numbers that might lead
you to believe that the table is turning around and is headed in a warm-trend
direction
as soon as you get your money on the table
bang
7-Out. Thats the cruelty of a choppy table. It fools you into thinking that its the
right time to lay out the dough; in fact it is usually precisely one or two rolls before
the wrong time. Choppy tables are
pernicious and cruel like that because they lull you thinking that youve got it
figured out and the choppiness snaps back to bite you in the ass. However, dont feel bad
it has exactly
the same effect on Darksiders as well. Sometimes
though, the tables will definitively be turning in either a hotter or colder direction. In that case you have to be savvy enough to be
able to distinguish the real trends from the choppy imposters. If its real, you have to switch from a
CHOPPY or COOL-trend betting-method like this one, over to one that is better suited to
the now-prevailing trend. Certain
methods work at certain times, and fail miserably at others. Instead of being married to using just one method
all the time, you have to be adaptable.
Ø
If
the trend is warm or hot then a warm or hot-trend betting-method is called for.
Ø
Conversely,
if the trend is cold or cool, then a cold or cool-trend approach must be used if you still
want to be in action.
Ø
Likewise,
if the table is choppy, then a choppy-table method has to be used.
Ø
Again,
no one in their right mind says that you have to bet all the time (or AT ALL) on
random-rollers
but if you do, then choosing the right method to use at the right
time is critical. The
FIRST thing you have to do is to maintain perspective.
Ø
You
have to remember WHY you pulled the C-T/S-L series-trigger in the first place. It was because the table was trending cool or
choppy. Under those conditions, its
incredibly difficult to make ANY money let alone, not lose any. Thats perspective Number One. Perspective
Number Two is that you will sometimes see the shooter unleash a string of box-numbers that
make you salivate. You wonder whether you
should jump in, and try to exploit his current hand.
While you already have money out on the table that is bet against him
(and with the prevailing cool or choppy trend), your hunger for profit has you
tempted with the prospect of collecting a couple of bucks from right-side Place-bets as
well. In
this case, the perspective you have to maintain is that on choppy tables, the worst thing
that can happen is that just as you convince yourself that it is safe to change
betting-method mid-stream, and you put your money on the appropriate Place-bets or
traveled Come-bets
then WHAMMO
the 7-Out shows up just as you knew it
would under the choppy table conditions that you first reasoned was a good basis for
applying the C-T/S-L in the first place. Perspective
Number Three is to recognize that a shooter may indeed knock off ALL of your C-T/S-L bets
up to and including the $155 fifth-stage loss-limit.
In that case, Ill admit that its hard to maintain objectivity,
but lets give it a try.
Ø
You
are in a casino.
Ø
You
are willing to accept a certain amount of risk.
Ø
Your
bankroll is large enough to handle the occasional loss.
Ø
You
are using the C-T/S-L to augment your table time.
Ø
Youre
using this method when its properly qualified on a verified choppy or cool-trending
table.
Ø
You
arent using it against skilled or Precision or Rhythmicrollers so you
dont have to buck their skill level as well as the skew, volatility and variance of
the game itself.
Ø
You
are waiting for the dice to cycle around back to you for your own shooting as your
principal money-making route in the first place.
Ø
All
of that leads to the realization and perspective that in taking the risk by venturing any
of your money on any random roller, you will sometimes lose. All
of that perspective forces you to properly qualify the table-trend before you
venture Dollar One (no matter which betting-method you choose to use), and each subsequent
C-T/S-L win helps you maintain that perspective along the way. Navigating
the Shifting Sand of Trends
One
of your tasks as an astute player is to constantly be re-evaluating the trend even as you
are betting against it. To
some people, the craps terrain looks pretty much the same all the time. To their untrained eye, they see numbers, they see
winners and losers, they see hot streaks and cold trends, but never in a way so they know
exactly where they are
where they want to go
and precisely how to get there. Instead they wander around, lost in the desert of
seemingly random outcomes for 40 years (or as long as their craps playing dalliance
lasts). They are like slack-jawed tourists
that are lost in the desert without a compass, map, water or a guide. They not only dont know the terrain, they
dont have any survival skills or instincts that go much beyond knowing how to call
Room Service. Its little wonder that
they hardly ever find a path through all of that shifting sand
let alone accidentally
finding the oasis of choppy-table profit. By
asking yourself if the trend is still the same (choppy) or whether it is starting to warm
up (or cool down); and asking yourself if there are better (and less riskier)
betting-prospects on either side of the dice (as opposed to hoping that the table turns
choppy again before you get burned too badly), you are better positioned to apply the
right betting-method at the right time instead of sticking with the wrong one way past the
point when you should have transitioned into a more appropriate approach. The
seven-part Streaks,
Trends & Opportunities series looks at multiple ways to better read and
decipher what is happening at the table, and how best to take advantage of it at any given
time. You
have to be ultra-aware of any changes to the current trend, and then respond
appropriately. The
one short-coming of the C-T/S-L Method is that it gives a false sense of security to its
user, and in turn convinces you or lets you think that the table is cool or choppy nearly
ALL of the time. That clearly IS NOT the
case, but greed has a way of clouding our vision and decision-making abilities when our
money is in play. In
other words, greed clouds our perception. When
we see how great it works during choppy conditions, we just naturally want to see it
continue generating profit
so we start expanding our definition of what constitutes a
choppy table. In reality, we are only fooling
ourselves and increasing our risk beyond the point for which this method was designed. Thats
why it is critically important that you balance your desire for MAKING money,
against your aversion to LOSING money. When
using the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash Method, that is the perspective that you need to
maintain the most. The
Philosophy of Winning
A
lot of this discussion may sound philosophical or at least high-concept
in the way we look past the mechanical part of using this method (what to bet
what to
do when a bet wins or loses
when to stop betting, etc.), and delve into the abstract
concepts of when to use it (and equally, when NOT to use it) in addition to taking a
critical look at our own perceptions, values, motivation and trend-awareness. The
plain truth is that the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash is much more than just a straight out
mechanical wagering method. It makes you work
for your money, and as in any randomly-rolled game, there is inherent risk. The
C-T/S-L REWARDS the savvy, the attentive, the discerning and the patient bettor, but it
ruthlessly PUNISHES the greedy, the impetuous, the impulsive or the impatient player. What
this method does, is force you to sharpen your table-awareness to the point where you can
so accurately gauge where the ever-shifting trend is right now, and where it will likely
go in the nearest of short-terms. By doing
so, some players suddenly start seeing the game from a whole new point of view. Others equate it to being able to see a certain
kind of order in amongst the seeming chaos. In
any event, increasing your trend-spotting awareness and momentum-gauging alertness to the
ebb and flow of the game opens a whole new world of profit-opportunities. To my mind, the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash is just
one more way that you can bring (seeming) randomness into exploitable focus. The
philosophy of winning with this method is based on having you develop your
momentum-monitoring abilities to a point where you intuitively know where and when a trend
started, where it has been in the meantime, where it is right now
how likely it is to
stay there and for how long, in addition to reckoning where it is likely to go from there. Most importantly, it teaches you how to recognize
a choppy or cool-trending table
and how to bet it in an exploitable way right
now. Gee,
Im Glad I Wasnt Using MPs C-T/S-L Method Just Now If
you are standing at a table long enough, you will no doubt see a streak where a
random-roller does throw seven or eight or nine PL-winners in a row. That
event tends to stand out in your memory, and it seems like a perfect time to say, Gee,
Im glad that I wasnt using MPs Choppy-Table Short-Leash Method just now. Well, Im glad you werent using it at
that moment either, but you have to LOOK BACK on what preceded that scorching hand.
Ø
Was
the trend choppy or was it kind of warm?
Ø
What
makes that hand stand out against all the others that were being thrown during that
session?
Ø
Was
every other random-roller throwing great hands too, or was this the only one during your
entire time at the table?
Ø
If
the table was cool or choppy for a couple of hours, then someone (a RANDOM-roller)
comes along and turns things around, then yeah, it is memorable
but what about the
choppy table revenue that you SHOULD have been making for the past three hours
does
that suddenly mean nothing now because a R-R finally threw a good hand?
Ø
Was
anyone making a Point or two before that or did this one shooter suddenly turn the table
(and the trend) around? If it was cool or
choppy before that (and not just selectively remembered as such), then yes, it would have
been a bad thing if you were using the C-T/S-L
but you also have to know that it does
not win all the time. We are in a
casino
we are gambling
and we are wagering on random-rollers, which means we are
wagering on random-outcomes.
Ø
Even
though the prevailing trend may not favor a bet with the dice, it does sometimes
happen that a major turnaround can and does occur. I
accept that risk, especially on properly qualified tables.
Equally, I generally dont use this method against any shooters who
seem to have any dice-influencing skill, and I would strongly recommend that you do
the same. There
will be times when a random-shooter suddenly unleashes the roll of the day. It can happen and it does happen, but you have to
look at the big picture of all the other times when a hot hand isnt
being thrown. The reason they call them
hot hands is because they dont happen very often. If they were thrown all the time, then craps
tables would be non-stop party-fests, and nobody would blow their nut. No one would leave because they couldnt
afford to. Though
hot hands do occur (and you can bet that Ill have money on the table betting WITH
the shooter when the dice start to sizzle), those hot ones just dont come along
often enough to keep your bankroll in random-roller heaven.
Instead, they happen just frequently enough to keep most players HOPING
that this hand or the next one or hopefully the one after that will be the hot hand that
everyone needs to pull them back to even; but the sad fact is, if you take a look at the
stats in Dodging
Bullets as a Darksider Part One, youll see just how infrequently
hot hands occur. You
can look back on a hot hand that just finished and say, Gee, Im glad that I
wasnt using MPs Choppy-Table Short-Leash Method just now, but you
have to ask yourself how many times you could honestly REPEAT that same statement
during any randomly-rolled session versus the number of times the choppiness ground nearly
everyone into casino dust. Now THATS
the true measure of the C-T/S-L Method. Intuitive
Betting, Trend-Spotting and Windows of Opportunity
"MP,
I read Lyle Stuarts book, Casino Gambling For The Winner as you strongly
recommended. You were right, theres no
other gambling book like it. I noticed a link
between his philosophy and yours, especially where streaks and trends are concerned. Do you think its because youve played
the game for so many years that you are able to clue into the prevailing trend so easily
and then bet on it that makes the difference? " On
one hand, Ive seen guys who have been playing this game ever since the Romans were
using the ankle-bones of sheep for dice
and they still cant accurately gauge
anything other than the hottest of the hot or the coldest of the cold streaks; so years of
experience is not the be-all and end-all of being able to accurately decipher what the
trend is. In
fact, endless years at the table will sometimes jaundice the trend-spotting eye of a
player because they arent able to see the individual trees in amongst the sheer size
of the forest. Their cynicism often blinds
them to opportunities, and their attitude prevents them from seizing profit when it is
well within their grasp. When the opportunity
passes and the profit is no longer within range
they say stuff like, See, I
told you it wouldnt last forever. The
thing is
in the casino, just as in life
opportunity rarely lasts for very
long
and it certainly doesnt last forever. If
you are going to bet on random-rollers, and if you are going to bet with the prevailing
trend; then you have to understand that you are still putting your money at substantial
risk. With the Choppy-Table/Short-Leash, you
are giving yourself and the current trend a big enough opportunity to play itself
out
to generate predictable and sustainable profit.
Its not guaranteed, its just highly probable. My
philosophy is that opportunities DONT last forever, so you have to seize them when
they are in front of you. While we all
acknowledge that there is inherent risk for ALL casino wagers that we make; if we open our
minds and expand our trend-spotting perceptions, its much easier to clue into those
prospects and therefore capitalize on them at the most opportune time. To
my mind, all of those skills are developable just like Precision-Shooting. It takes time, patience and practice. As well, an open-mind and an unjaundiced attitude
are critical. As with any other acquired
talent, we learn from our mistakes and we build on our abilities. Controversy
and Regrets "Mad
Professor, are you a little surprised at the amount of response that your C-T/S-L Method
has generated, and do you have any regrets as far as sharing it with everyone?" The
response has been quite strong and interest has been sustained. When
you consider that its really only designed for and useful with choppy or
cool-trending tables, then yes, the amount of correspondence and controversy that it has
spawned is a bit surprising. Most
players get KILLED by choppy tables, and Im talking about right-siders and
Darksiders alike. Place-bettors get
slaughtered in equal proportion to DC and Lay-bet players
the chop is an equal
opportunity bankroll-killer. So
when I came along and wrote about this fresh take on an old approach, a number of players
jumped right in (head first) and tried it against too wide of a definition of what
a cool or choppy table is. Some
even tried it under all table-conditions and found out exactly what I told them
they would find out, and that is that you cant use the C-T/S-L under every
condition. If
the tables are trending warm or hot; then this is the WORST kind of bet you could be
making
BAR NONE! Its easy for me
to say that because I proved it to myself WAY before I ever even considered writing
about it. I validated when to use it and
especially when NOT to use it (and strongly recommended that other players do the
same by way of WinCraps), but many players have unsuccessfully tried to expand its use, or
at least expand the definition of what a choppy table is.
While their disappointment is lamentable, its not at all unexpected. Some
people choose to ignore the packaging instructions if you will, and try to
force it to fit table-trends where it is wholly inappropriate. Thats NOT how the C-T/S-L works, in fact in
most of those square-peg-into-a-round-hole situations IT WILL NOT WORK. When
you step outside those properly defined use-boundaries, your risk increases substantially,
and you are no longer playing my method, but instead have adopted some perverse
bastardized version of it whose risk/return ratio no longer resembles the original, and
therefore the results will not be at all in line with where they should be. That
too is regrettable, but again it isnt altogether unexpected. In the end, Im happy to have shared it, but
disappointed that it was so misunderstood. As
a quick side note
I continue to use the C-T/S-L, and it continues to generate a
steady revenue stream that we first discussed in Dodging Bullets
Part Two. My base-bet is
now usually at the $25 starting point (or $50 at bet-tolerant casinos with tables that
have sufficient max-bet headroom). Good
Luck and Good Skill at the tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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