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How To Get It, and How To Keep It
You
may have been playing craps ever since George Washington was a Colonel in the British
Army; but if your game hasnt evolved since then; then neither will your profit.
If
your shooting has improved, but your betting hasnt; then your profit still
wont keep pace with your progress
but your frustration probably will.
An
astute Precision-Shooter is continually discovering fresh new ways to extract more and
more money from his ever-evolving talents.
Profit-discovery
is invariably tied to self-discovery.
So
how do we get from HERE (where
your
current profit-level and win-rate is right now) to THERE (where youll have bigger
and more consistent wins with equal or reduced risk) from the same skill-set?
By
continuing our sure-footed how-to-get-it-and-how-to-keep-it trek across the
often-treacherous terrain of casino-play
When
You Break Your Own Rules
HOPE That Things DONT Work Out
Yeah,
you read it right
When
you break your own discipline rules while you are at the casino
HOPE
that things DONT work out.
Many
players find themselves in a quandary over whether it is bad to break their own discipline
rules, or bad only if they end up losing?
Many
also wonder what rules are for if not for breaking.
Heres
the problem with that philosophy
Ø
When
you break your own rules (that were set to prevent you from blowing your nut in a fit of
greed or desperation in the first place, and because you know how much youve
struggled with it in the past)
and your rule-breaking works out in your favor this
time
that often leads to even more bankroll-control issues and an even
lower level of willpower, discipline and self-restraint in the future.
When
you give up discipline, you give up control of your money.
The
casino is a perfect killing-machine when it comes to taking advantage of low-discipline
players. They eat you up and shit you out.
Many gamblers like the therapeutic feeling of going through the wringer and getting
extruded through the ass-end of the casino-grinder.
Me
well,
Im not into that sort of entertainment.
When
you give up discipline
you give up power.
When
you dont have enough self-restraint to control your money, then the casino will
assume the pimp-Daddy role. Theyll
slap your bankroll around and treat it like the money-surrendering whore that it is because
you let them.
The
casino will act like the adult in case you cant.
On
the other hand
When
you decide to break your discipline-rules and you stage a monumental lucky comeback or
score a huge fluky win
for the moment, the money is yours.
However,
before you enthusiastically toot your triumphant gee-am-I-ever-clever horn, think
about this
Ø
The
next time a similar gambling situation presents itself, you will probably abandon your
game-plan and ditch your discipline-constraints with much less thought and deliberation
than you did just now. Ø
Further,
youll likely do it much sooner than you just did. Once you break down that resistance-wall,
its much easier to pass through it again and again. Theres
nothing left to hold you back and theres nothing left to stop you. Ø
When
an advantage-player willingly gives up discipline, he casts himself back into the hellfire
of random outcomes. It makes you wonder why
he took up dice-influencing in the first place. Ø
Each
time you abandon your game-plan and it works out in your favor
human-nature dictates
that youll continue to lower the discipline-bar
until you are once again
playing with no discipline at all.
Ø
When
a player abandons his discipline
it becomes easier to do it more frequently
not
because the outcomes continue to fall in his favor, but because he vainly keeps trying to
recapture lightning in a bottle again and again
all in an effort to prove his faulty
decision-making process was right. In
other words, his ego will endlessly try to redeem itself (even though his
conscience knows deep down how wrong it was), and even if he has to blow his entire
bankroll in a failed attempt to do it.
Like
I said, when you break your own rules, HOPE that things DONT work out.
A
small, disciplined low-limit loss that doesnt get out of control might
sting a bit now; but it will save you tons of chronic undisciplined losses later.
Revisit
Your WORST Losses and Learn From Them
Though
we arent going to dwell on our bankroll-wounds from times of yore for too long, I
want you to think back to some of your biggest losses.
Ø
If
you cant remember them vividly (and exactly WHY they produced such big deficits) or
you dont have Session-Notes that will permit you to look them up; then the first
thing Im going to predict is that you are VERY likely to repeat those same
mistake-laden losses again, and again and AGAIN until the lessons
that they should have left with you do sink in.
Ø
Your
biggest losses should have a place in your records as well as in your memory (though
obviously not in the forefront of your mind). They
are there to tell us again what NOT to do. They
are the last wall of defense against undisciplined play.
Ø
Their
memory should also bring a small twinge of pain as you recall how the events that led to
each of those losses unfolded. They act as the alarm that warns us of impending
same-pitfall dangers. A child quickly learns
not to touch a hot stove, but a fool returns again and again to the same open fire to test
whether searing flames still burn his arm like they did the first time
and the second
time
and the third time too.
Ø
If
you cant remember how you lost that money in the first place, then youll
likely keep on losing similar amounts of it again and again, until the message that it is
try to send to you finally hits home.
In
other words, its important to realize HOW you lost that money, and to note the
changes that youve made (or should be making) to your game-plan so that you
dont keep on making those same decisions and repeating those same dismal
money-losing performances again and again.
Revisit
your worst losses and learn from them. Your worst
discipline problems usually offers the best opportunity for profit-retaining
improvement.
Is
It A Problem or Is It An Opportunity?
Some
guys look at their own rolls and see nothing but trouble.
Theyll
track each outcome and compare them to the bets they are making, then shake their head in
disgust at the fact that their dice-outcomes consistently manage to dodge nearly every one
of their active wagers.
Savvy
advantage-players look at the same set of rolls and see nothing but opportunity.
If
your outcomes are dodging the bets that you usually make; then you have to look at making
bets that will more closely match the outcomes that your current talents are producing.
As
your talents improve and evolve, the bets that you make have to transform and advance
right along with them.
Listen,
Im definitely not the smartest dice-shootin bear here in Jellystone
Park, but I do know that your most-dominant dice-outcomes should be the main thrust behind
your bets
instead of hoping that your current non-performing wagers will somehow
magically match up to your patchwork of dice-results.
One approach is a matched-to-skill betting-method, while the
other one is a based-on-hope gamble.
You
can look at your current dice-results and lament the fact that your current
betting-approach doesnt hit often enough to make it work, or you can look at those
SAME results and figure out a wagering-approach that will. Ø
Be
sure that the roll-stats sampling that you are using isnt too small so that
any short-term deviation doesnt fool you into seeing patterns that wont hold
up reliably in the real-world. Ø
Equally,
be sure your sampling of rolls isnt too large so that the useable numbers and
bettable opportunities that you are looking for arent lost in the crowd or diluted
over too wide (or too OLD and out-of-date, relative to your development) of a case-study
range.
Reviewing
your roll-stats is a lot like doing the glass-half-empty/glass-half-full exercise.
You
can criticize your current dice-influencing problems and condemn your shortcomings with a glass-half-empty
attitude, or you can look at it with a discriminating enough eye to see all kinds of
new betting opportunities, hereinbefore unknown prospects, various wagering options that
youve never considered, and previously unseen earnings-scenarios that were hidden in
amongst the same roll-stats that you previously viewed as disordered, unexploitable and
steadily unprofitable.
If
your eye cant see them, then running the same stats through one of the roll-analysis
software programs (that are available for free on this and other sites); will tell you
where your current strengths and betting-opportunities are, as well as indicating exactly
where the bulk of your dice-influencing improvement needs to be directed.
Detaching
From Fear and Greed Allows For Better Decisions
Detaching
your emotions from your bet-decisions permits you to make
wagering choices that are not tainted by greed or tinged with fear. Ø
In
the casino, fear and greed are the two emotions that you have to control the most, because
they are the chief cause of discipline breakdowns. Ø
Fear
and greed cause you to lose more money when things are going bad, and prevents you
from winning more money when things are going good. Ø
Fear
and greed can cloud, taint, corrupt and contaminate all your casino decisions.
On
the surface, youd think that greed could be a good thing when it comes
to winning, and fear would be an enemy. Conversely,
youd think that fear would be your best-friend when it comes to losing and greed
would be your enemy.
Unfortunately
in both of those cases, fear and greed can make both of those situations worse than they
need to be. Ø
Greed
makes you over-reach and over-bet your skills.
Ø
Greed
makes you seek unrealistic earnings beyond what your current abilities are capable of
reliably sustaining. Ø
When
you overstretch your Precision-Shooting talent; your advantage over the house ceases, and
the more dangerous aspect of undisciplined casino gambling comes back into effect. Ø
In
other words, greed makes you stupid. Ø
In
a winning situation, greed keeps more money in play and less winnings in your rack. Greed is the urge that keeps you in
action
praying for one more stack em, never rack em hit,
and then conveniently (and immediately) erases your memory and convinces you to go for one
more All-my-winnings-are-out-on-the-table hit after that. Greed makes you
lose perspective and enforces decisions that you wouldnt normally make if your wife
or parents were watching. Ø
In
a losing situation, greed makes you hold out false hope in anticipation that if you can
find just one win in amongst all of this losing
you might be able to finally turn
things around. Greed keeps putting money on
the table long after fear has told youll that youll likely lose everything. Ø
Fear
makes you under-perform and under-bet your skills. Ø
Fear
makes you set your goals too low in relation to what your current abilities are capable of
reliably sustaining. Ø
When
you under-bet your Precision-Shooting abilities, your advantage over the house diminishes,
and the maximum potential of your skills are never realized. Ø
In
a winning situation, fear fills you with worry that you might lose out if you turn your
bets off, but equally clouds your decisions about the amount of money that you should keep
in action versus the amount you should lock up.
Ø
The
fear of losing money is in a constant tug-of-war with the fear of missing out on an
opportunity. Ø
Fear
slows down your responses and leads to hesitation and indecision. Fear paralyses your
thought-process and poisons your rationality. Ø
In
a winning situation, fear breeds guilt and sometimes even feelings of unworthiness (as
though you arent entitled to the profit, and therefore many players feel
cleaner after theyve lost their winnings back to the house). Ø
Fear
can sabotage your best-laid betting-plans simply by making you second-guess your decisions
and letting any low-esteem that inhabits your subconscious, lead you into making foolish
bankroll-diminishing bets.
Ø
If
youve ever thought to yourself, That guy bets like he has a death-wish for
his bankroll; then you know that fear and greed have conspired together to take
over his entire bet-decision process.
The
idea behind Precision-Shooting advantage-play is to engineer more of the risk OUT of the
casino experience and put more earnings predictability INTO it.
If
you let fear or greed rule your decisions, then the advantage that youve worked so
hard to gain
will be quickly surrendered back to the casino
along with an
ungodly portion of your bankroll.
One
of the keys to consistent dice-influencing profitability is to make bet-decisions that are
as objective as possible.
Ø
To
do that, you have to remove the emotion, the sentiment, the greed, the hope and the fear
out of your bet-decisions.
Ø
In
their place we use the knowledge that weve gained from our diligent roll-tracking,
and convert that dice-influencing intel into wagers that have a validated and
actionable-edge over the house. Ø
That
means we make bets that are most likely to hit
while we stay away from
the ones that we HOPE and WISH that we could hit.
The
successful Precision-Shooter has to put aside his worry and anxiety as well as his avarice
and self-indulgence; and only make the bets where he knows he has a significant
advantage over the house
because he knows intuitively that everything else is merely
gambling.
When
you take fear and greed out of your bet-making decisions and you disconnect the emotion
from the money that you are wagering; then you are left with bets that give you the most
reasonable chance of winning, and none of the wagers that are based on hope, panic,
desire, longing, prayer or dread.
Lets
take that idea to the next level
Your
Attitude As Well As Your Skill Determines Who Gets To Keep Your
Money
You or Them?
Its
ironically cruel to note this, but I find it rather funny that most skilled players
arent satisfied with a twenty or thirty dollar win, yet theyre happy when
their loss-limits keep them under the $200 deficit mark.
If
were satisfied with a $200 LOSS, but not a $20 WIN; then doesnt
that say something immoral and slightly depraved about the way we look at money?
Let
me put it this way
If
we think that its okay to lose $200, but not satisfactory to keep a $20 win; then
theres very little likelihood that any retainable profit will stay within our
grasp for very long.
Your
attitude towards money determines how you treat it in the casino.
Ø
If
you respect yourself and the effort that went into making it or earning your bankroll in
the first place; then you are more likely to treat it as something you are willing to
responsibly invest in order to make more of it.
Ø
If
you dont respect it (or you dont respect yourself or the way youve made
it); then it wont likely stay yours for very long.
Ø
The
casinos are the perfect bankroll killing-machine. They
are purpose-built for one thing
to separate you from your money.
You
can call it your entertainment
they call it their business.
Your
attitude
as well as your skill determines who makes the money and who loses it.
Your
task as a Precision-Shooter is to retain what is yours
and
also take a little bit of what is theirs.
Remember
that
Ø
Profit-discovery
is invariably tied to self-discovery. Ø
When
you break your own discipline rules while you are at the casino tables
hope that
things DONT work out.
Ø
When
you give up discipline, you give up control of your money.
Ø
Revisit
your worst losses and learn from them.
Ø
When
you look at your roll-stats, you can isolate the problems that require further
improvement, but dont be so overwrought that you are blind to the latent
opportunities that are often hidden in amongst those troubles.
Ø
Detaching
from fear and greed allows you to
make
bets that are most likely to hit (and of a value that reflects their volatility-weighted
advantage over the house), while concurrently keeping you away from the ones that you hope
and wish you could hit. Ø
Your
attitude as well as your skill determines who makes the money and who loses it.
Your
task as an advantage-player is to KEEP more of yours
and
GET more of theirs.
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life.
Sincerely,
The
Mad Professor
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