|
D'ya Wanna Win, or
D'ya Wanna Gamble? The
more time that I spend at the tables with fellow craps players, the more I realize that
being able to control the dice is one of the easier elements in terms of becoming a
serious recreational or semi-pro player, and that the hardest part is to control all
the other aspects of this whole Precision-Shooting thing. Now
dont get me wrong
keeping the dice on-axis, and especially on the four
primary-faces upon which you first set them is relatively difficult; but the better you
get at it, the more you come to realize that getting an edge is only a small part
of actually being able to capitalize on advantage-play craps. Surrendering
Your Advantage Back To The Casino The
primary reason that most accomplished shooters have so much trouble getting a
profit in the first place is due to defects when it comes to betting on their own
hands, and not the actual shooting. While
every skilled shooter has their fair share of Point-then-Out hands, its what you do
with ALL THE OTHER HANDS, which will determine your ultimate profitability. Let
me be clear about what I am saying: Precision-Shooting
is only one part of the advantage-play equation. Your
BETTING is often the worst culprit that keeps your shooting (no matter how good it is)
from ever showing a consistent profit. Lack
of discipline prevents your shooting and your betting from ever working together for very
long. When
you combine fairly good shooting with ill-matched betting and poor discipline; youll
hardly ever get over the profit-hump; and when you do, youre very likely to give it
right back to the casino before your current session ends. I
dont mean to sound cruel, but thats the reality that most skilled shooters
face. Their
shooting GIVES them the advantage, while their betting and discipline TAKES it right back. Speed
and GREED Are Equal Opportunity Killers Our
primary task is to bet in a way that matches our current shooting skill with appropriate
wagering opportunities. That
means we dont bet in the HOPE that a wager pans out. Instead, we bet in a manner where it WILL
most likely pan out based on our current skill.
Ø
Determining
where our specific shooting skills lay, and which Signature Numbers are most
dominant is where we focus the majority of our wagering-weight.
Ø
By
sticking to the wagers that pay consistently, we are able to invest our money in a safer,
disciplined manner that will see MORE SUSTAINABLE PROFIT.
Ø
By
avoiding the wagers that dont generate a consistent NET-profit (based
on the money we collect on them minus the money that we put out on them), we will see LESS
VOLATILITY (lower bankroll dips and fewer momentary profit-spikes
that disappear all
too soon
but which delude us into thinking that they are good bets).
Ø
As
a result, we get to keep the revenue that our current most dominant
Signature-Numbers are spinning off, and we avoid giving it back on
non-productive wagers that conspire against our overall profitability.
Ø
By
locking in a profit as quickly during the initial rolls of our current hand as possible
(usually through a Steep Regression), we position ourselves for net-profit (sooner)
regardless of what happens a throw or two down the road.
Ø
By
keeping active wagers on our most dominant Signature-Numbers (after we have locked in an
immutable profit), we build a firm foundation upon which we can manufacture further
profit.
Ø
By
staying active on our currently recurring S-Ns, a portion of our (still flowing)
income-stream is used to fuel larger and broader bet-spreads if your current hand turns
out to be a long one. The
skilled shooter that is still struggling with proper bet-deployments and discipline
problems CANNOT PLAY LIKE THEY DONT EXIST. Rather,
he has to acknowledge them and deal with them in a mature way. That means that you cant get too fancy or
too full of yourself. Its one thing to
believe in yourself and your abilities; it is something completely different if your
shooting skills are two or three steps ahead of your current betting-methods and
discipline limits.
Ø
Save
your fancy moves until after you get your betting in order and your discipline
under control.
Ø
Until
then, make bets that put the money in your rack, and use enough self-control to keep it
there. The
Advantage Is Yours To Protect The
second reason that most accomplished shooters have so much trouble getting and keeping
a profit is due to betting on other non-qualified shooters. In
other words, sustainable profitability is also tied to what you do with your money when
you ARENT the shooter. Many times, what
you do with your money when you arent the shooter spells the difference between
profit and loss during any given session. Ive
run into that very same problem myself (more times than most players have picked up a pair
of dice in a casino), so Im not being overly critical
Im being obvious. Unfortunately
an obvious problem is not always an easily curable one. When
I look back at all the money that Ive wasted over the years on non-productive (read:
non-winning) random-roller bets
the amount is truly disheartening (and absolutely
staggering). The lesson that Ive
learned is that as you gradually wean yourself off of non-productive bets (whether it be
during your own shooting or when a random-roller has the bones) and add it back into what
you yourself are able to produce with the dice on a steady basis; then the eye-opening
results are often enough to turn your stomach but also turn around your entire outlook and
game-plan. The
further you go towards eliminating losses on non-qualified shooters and wasteful
(non-productive) wagers during your own hands; the more net-profit youll retain in
your rack at the end of each session. As
Heavy is apt to remind everyone, the dice arent the only thing you have to
control in the casino. That
is never more true than when your shooting skills get to the point where they SHOULD
be making you money, but due to all the other non-productive betting elements at play;
your skillful setting isnt outstanding enough to get you over that
consistent-profit hump. Again
its not your shooting-skill that is holding you back
it is your betting-skill
that is stealing what is rightfully yours. How
much do you really WANT a profit versus having to dig into the excuse-bag and
pulling out a bunch of tired old wouldas, shouldas and couldas? HOW
TO Control More Than The Dice Perhaps
we have to go much deeper into the how to do it part of getting all the
aspects of our craps play under useful (and profitable) control. While
I could cheerfully advise you to Have a nice day (and Im
sure you would appreciate the good wishes); it wouldnt bring you any closer to being
able to ACTUALLY HAVE a nice day
although it does make for a quaint
bumper-sticker. This
series is all about HOW to turn those facile Have a nice day
wishes into actionable and profitable results at the craps table. Lets
get right back to it
More
Self-Respect
More Discipline
More Profit Ill
put this in very simple terms
The
more self-respect you have for yourself, and the more discipline that you bring to all
aspects of your crap-shooting play
the more profit you will be able to MAKE and
subsequently KEEP! Unfortunately,
the simplest of concepts are sometimes the hardest to put into action. Ill
be the first to admit that discipline problems dogged me for years. While each new day brings me one step closer to
having as much control and discipline over my decisions as I have over
the dice, I still have a long way to go. As
weve discussed before, I am not the only fount of inspired wisdom when it comes to
talking about discipline, self-control and restraint.
If you notice, I almost always give credit where credit is due, and in this
case Heavy has provided a real basis upon which we can definitely go forward and build a
stronger foundation of self-control. Our
friend wisely wrote: It's
ALL about the discipline. The
casino doesn't beat us - we beat ourselves. Until
a player gets to the point that he's willing to walk with a win - ANY win - he'll continue
to lose. The
secret to winning at gambling really is no secret. Quit
while you're ahead often enough and the numbers will fall the right way. Get
greedy and continue to play for a larger win and you may occasionally score - but MOST of
the time you'll end up losing your hard-won profit plus a substantial portion of your
bankroll To
my mind, that says it all. If
That Isnt Enough
Heres
a couple of sayings that you wont see bumper-stickered onto a rusted out 81
Grenada, but perhaps one of them will strike a chord nevertheless: If
we do not discipline ourselves, the world will do it for us. -William
Feather Self-respect
is the root of discipline; the sense of dignity grows with the ability to say
NO to oneself. -Abraham
J. Herschel Discipline
is the refining fire by which talent becomes ability. -Roy
L. Smith
Though
some people regard discipline as quite a chore, its important to realize that it is
also the thing that sets your abilities free and gives your hard-learned skills the
opportunity to prosper
to show what you are really made of
and to recompense you
for your efforts. You
disrespect yourself and dishonor your accomplishments if you frivolously toss them away. Lack of discipline just shows that the inner child
in you is still throwing tantrums if it cant get its own way. One
route takes you to profitability
the other one gets slapped down by the harsh hand of
reality. Self-discipline
is your conscience telling you what to do, and not letting the juvenile thats hiding
in all of us, get its way. In
a nutshell, the idea is to do MORE responsible WINNING and LESS
immature GAMBLING. So
let me ask you again
Dya
wanna win, or dya wanna gamble? Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor |
|