Regression Avoids Depression
Part 21
Let me ask you something.
How long has
it been since your dice-influencing winnings actually doubled your total
gaming bankroll?
Let’s say that you would give
up dice-influencing altogether if you lost a total of $3000; how long has it
been
since your dice-influencing
winnings actually increased your
I-will-give-up-craps-if-I-lose-x-amount of total
gaming bankroll by more than
double?
If that’s too tough of a
question or if you refuse to consider the amount of money that you are
continually
feeding in to repeatedly prop
up your sessional buy-ins from an undefined total bankroll; then let me ask
you this:
When was the
last time your precision-shooting winnings actually justified an increase
in the basic
advantage-play bets that you currently spread on the table?
That is, when did your
total winnings, not just your
I’m-on-a-good-roll-so-I’ll-press-up-my-bets-with-some-
of-my-winnings,
justify an increase in the value of your basic advantage-play bets?
I ask you all of this because
today I’m going to show you
how long it will generally take for
you to
DOUBLE
an optimally-sized bankroll if you based your positive-expectation bets strictly
on your CURRENT shooting skills.
When was the last time
someone did THAT for you (that didn’t include a crazy “parlay
it to the moon…
stack it, never rack it
until you reach the table-max” method)?
Advantage-play dice-influencing is all about taking the skills that you
currently have, and using
them to
extract a predictable profit on the positive-expectation wagers that you make.
If you have the skill (and
frankly, your actual D-I abilities don’t have to be much above random); and you
make the bets that are sized
to your actual advantage (no matter how small it is); then you can reasonably
determine approximately how long it will generally take for you to double
your bankroll.
Now obviously I’m not going
to factor in any of the frivolous bets where you waste your money on random-
rollers and unqualified
hunches; that’s between you, your conscience, and the day-job that you need to
keep in order to
continually feed what would otherwise be an excellent second source of income.
Rather,
I’m going to show you how, if
you actually allowed yourself to do it, that it would take for you to double an
optimally-sized
bankroll…based entirely on your current skills and NOT on a
someday-in-the-improbable-
ottery-winning-future
fantasy.
Prepare To Make More Money
My advantage-play
philosophy is all about extracting a net-profit from as many of our current
hands as possible without
unduly restraining our overall earnings-power nor unduly
endangering our bankroll.
That simply means that I
like to make as much money with as little risk as possible. It
also means that I understand the need to focus my money on the wagers that I am
most likely to collect from during the
point-cycle.
I’ll remind you again that it is important that
you start to think about your bets in relation not only to the
size of the buy-in money that you bring to the
table (that’s your “session buy-in”), but more importantly
how much money your current skill-level (when
combined with your intended wagers) demand and require
in terms of a reasonable overall
bankroll to ensure a low-risk shot at reasonable profit-growth…and
bankroll doubling.
Now although you may choose not to apply
optimally-sized wagers to your dice-influencing skills at
the present time; there’s nothing to say that
you won’t be able to work your way up to making optimally-
sized bets over a reasonable period of time;
it’s just that it will obviously take much, much longer to get there.
The following is a compilation, by SRR-rate,
for each of the global bets that we’ve been discussing in
this series; so you may want to print out the
table that pertains to your current SRR skill-level for a quick
in-casino reference guide.
I’ll also mention again that these
advantaged-plays are based on regressing your bets at the optimal
ISR trigger-point, and obviously
if you venture off-path with the trigger-point (thereby sub-optimally
regressing your bets); then your profit-mileage
is going to suffer a substantial penalty.
SRR-7
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers |
Steepness Ratio
|
2:1 |
3:1 |
4:1 |
5:1 |
10:1 |
Inside |
$9167 |
$13,750 |
$18,334 |
$22,917 |
$45,833 |
Across |
$15,238 |
$22,857 |
$30,476 |
$38,095 |
$76,190 |
Outside |
$12,121 |
$18,182 |
$24,242 |
$30,303 |
$60,606 |
Even |
$10,232 |
$15,349 |
$20,465 |
$25,581 |
$51,162 |
Iron
Cross |
$11,000 |
$16,500 |
$22,000 |
$27,500 |
$55,000 |
6 & 8 |
$4138 |
$6207 |
$8276 |
$10,345 |
$20,690 |
5 & 9 |
$5000 |
$7500 |
$10,000 |
$12,500 |
$25,000 |
4 & 10 |
$7692 |
$11,538 |
$15,385 |
$19,230 |
$38,461 |
SRR-8
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers |
Steepness Ratio
|
2:1 |
3:1 |
4:1 |
5:1 |
10:1 |
Inside |
$3520 |
$5280 |
$7040 |
$8800 |
$17,600 |
Across |
$5470 |
$8421 |
$10,940 |
$13,675 |
$27,350 |
Outside |
$3922 |
$5882 |
$7843 |
$9804 |
$19,608 |
Even |
$3760 |
$5641 |
$7521 |
$9401 |
$18,803 |
Iron
Cross |
$3928 |
$5893 |
$7857 |
$9821 |
$19,643 |
6 & 8 |
$1621 |
$2432 |
$3243 |
$4054 |
$8108 |
5 & 9 |
$1786 |
$2679 |
$3571 |
$4464 |
$8928 |
4 & 10 |
$2174 |
$3261 |
$4348 |
$5435 |
$10,870 |
SRR-9
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers |
Steepness Ratio
|
2:1 |
3:1 |
4:1 |
5:1 |
10:1 |
Inside |
$2065 |
$3098 |
$4131 |
$5164 |
$10,329 |
Across |
$3106 |
$4660 |
$6213 |
$7767 |
$15,534 |
Outside |
$2162 |
$3243 |
$4324 |
$5405 |
$10,810 |
Even |
$2115 |
$3173 |
$4230 |
$5288 |
$10,577 |
Iron
Cross |
$2189 |
$3283 |
$4378 |
$5473 |
$10,945 |
6 & 8 |
$941 |
$1412 |
$1882 |
$2353 |
$4706 |
5 & 9 |
$990 |
$1485 |
$1980 |
$2475 |
$4950 |
4 & 10 |
$1198 |
$1796 |
$2395 |
$2994 |
$5988 |
Okay, let’s take a slightly
different look at how the recommended amount of total bankroll goes down
as
your SRR-rate go up.
Optimal Bankroll for
Steep Regression Betting
|
ISR
Steepness Ratio
|
2:1 |
3:1 |
4:1 |
5:1 |
10:1 |
Inside
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$9167 |
$13,750 |
$18,334 |
$22,917 |
$45,833 |
SRR-8
|
$3520 |
$5280 |
$7040 |
$8800 |
$17,600 |
SRR-9 |
$2065 |
$3098 |
$4131 |
$5164 |
$10,329 |
Across
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$15,238 |
$22,857 |
$30,476 |
$38,095 |
$76,190 |
SRR-8
|
$5470 |
$8421 |
$10,940 |
$13,675 |
$27,350 |
SRR-9 |
$3106 |
$4660 |
$6213 |
$7767 |
$15,534 |
Outside
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$12,121 |
$18,182 |
$24,242 |
$30,303 |
$60,606 |
SRR-8
|
$3922 |
$5882 |
$7843 |
$9804 |
$19,608 |
SRR-9 |
$2162 |
$3243 |
$4324 |
$5405 |
$10,810 |
Even
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$10,232 |
$15,349 |
$20,465 |
$25,581 |
$51,162 |
SRR-8
|
$3760 |
$5641 |
$7521 |
$9401 |
$18,803 |
SRR-9
|
$2115 |
$3173 |
$4230 |
$5288 |
$10,577 |
Iron Cross
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$11,000 |
$16,500 |
$22,000 |
$27,500 |
$55,000 |
SRR-8
|
$3928 |
$5893 |
$7857 |
$9821 |
$19,643 |
SRR-9 |
$2189 |
$3283 |
$4378 |
$5473 |
$10,945 |
6 &
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$4138 |
$6207 |
$8276 |
$10,345 |
$20,690 |
SRR-8
|
$1621 |
$2432 |
$3243 |
$4054 |
$8108 |
SRR-9 |
$941 |
$1412 |
$1882 |
$2353 |
$4706 |
5 &
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$5000 |
$7500 |
$10,000 |
$12,500 |
$25,000 |
SRR-8
|
$1786 |
$2679 |
$3571 |
$4464 |
$8928 |
SRR-9
|
$990 |
$1485 |
$1980 |
$2475 |
$4950 |
4 &
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$7692 |
$11,538 |
$15,385 |
$19,230 |
$38,461 |
SRR-8
|
$2174 |
$3261 |
$4348 |
$5435 |
$10,870 |
SRR-9 |
$1198 |
$1796 |
$2395 |
$2994 |
$5988 |
How Many Hands To Double My
Bankroll?
Now that we
know how big of an overall bankroll we would ideally have when we are
making these sorts
of
multi-number, multi-hit global-bets; let’s consider how quickly we can
double our starting bankroll.
Bet-Type
|
SSR-7 |
SSR-8 |
SSR-9 |
Inside |
|
|
|
Hands to
Double
recommended bankroll |
2303
hands |
196
hands |
83
hands |
Across |
|
|
|
Hands
to Double
recommended bankroll |
1455 hands |
302
hands |
120
hands |
Outside |
|
|
|
Hands to
Double
recommended bankroll |
2484
hands |
320
hands |
80
hands |
Even |
|
|
|
Hands
to Double
recommended bankroll |
1987 hands |
178
hands |
72
hands |
Iron
Cross |
|
|
|
Hands to
Double
recommended bankroll |
2546
hands |
469
hands |
176
hands |
6 &
8 |
|
|
|
Hands
to Double
recommended bankroll |
326
hands |
82
hands |
35
hands |
5 & 9 |
|
|
|
Hands to
Double
recommended bankroll |
796
hands |
89
hands |
36
hands |
4 &
10 |
|
|
|
Hands
to Double
recommended bankroll |
810
hands |
112
hands |
31
hands |
You’ll notice that some
betting-methods provide bankroll-doubling much quicker than other methods
even though they are still within
the same SRR skill-rate. This is because the Initial Steep Regression
(ISR) trigger-point (where the
large initial wager is reduced to a smaller subsequent wager) varies
amongst these wagers. As a
result, some global-bets have a higher pre-regression hit-rate than others.
For example:
Ø
An SRR-7 shooter
betting the Inside (5, 6, 8, and 9) and optimally regressing his bets after just
one paying hit; will require
about 2300 hands in order to double his above-noted bankroll.
Ø
Meanwhile the same
shooter using the All-Across (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) wager will only require
just under 1500 advantage-play hands to accomplish the same thing since the
All-Across
wager at this skill-level
permits two hits at the initial pre-regression large-wager before being
optimally reduced to a
smaller one; while the Inside-bet demands an optimal regression after just
one hit for the SRR-7 skill-level.
Ø
Likewise, the SRR-8
shooter who bets the Anything-But-7 Iron Cross regression will need to
throw about 470 hands to double
his recommended bankroll, but will only require about 80 hands
to double his money if he sticks
to a less-encompassing wager like Place-betting the 6 and 8.
Ø
The added benefit
for that shooter using an ISR on the Place-bet 6 & 8, is that he can also afford
to start with a much smaller overall bankroll than that required
by the Iron Cross wager even
though his current skill-level is
exactly the same no matter what he bets on.
Ø
In this case he’d
want to have a total gaming bankroll of just $1600 in order to
properly take
advantage of his shooting skills
for a 2:1 regression on the Place-bet 6 and 8 ($12 each
on the
6 and 8, regressed
down to $6 each); but he’d need an optimal starting bankroll of almost
$4000 if he
wanted to do the same 2:1 regression on the Iron Cross ($44 I-C regressed down
to
$22 I-C).
Why Require So Much of a Total Bankroll If We Can Double Our Money So
Quickly?
When we look at combining our current
dice-influencing talents with an Initial Steep Regression, we soon
discover just how quickly it can double our
bankroll if we trigger the bet-regression at the optimal time…
but only if we are properly financed to begin
with.
The reason it is critically important to have an
adequately-sized bankroll in the first place, is because
not every hand we throw will be a winner, and
there could very well be periods when we make major
total gaming bankroll draw-downs.
If you try to make do with less, you could
possibly succeed, but more likely you’ll go down the same
path of ruin that so many
skilled-but-under-funded players before you ventured.
When you have a validated edge over the house,
it will prevail, but you have to have the sufficient funds
in order to weather the volatility swings that
inevitably occur along the way.
You can be a crack-shot with the dice, but if you don’t have the
bankroll-ammo; you aren’t l
ikely going to hit ANY of your win-targets.
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2006
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