The Big Easy
Trip Report - Part III
 

In one of our many moves around the country we ended up in a small house in the country.  We were enjoying country living when one evening I discovered we had skunks living in our garage!  I bowered a live-trap from a neighbor and over the next two weeks I trapped 13 skunks!  When I tell this story people always ask how you handle a live skunk in a live trap?  I always tell them … very,very carefully.  And that’s the way you play $10 tables with only a $100 buy-in.

Have you ever been at a craps table and observed another craps player buy in for $1000 and then proceed to throw money out on everything?  Have you ever thought, “Boy, I wish I had his money and my brains?”  More money doesn’t make you a smarter player, or a winning player.  I learned the hard way!

During 1999 and 2000 my part time (after work) income was good enough that I could up my buy-ins, loss limits, and basic bets, and could even afford more trips to Las Vegas, more than any time before in my life.  What I didn’t do was maintain my same level of willpower and patience.   I am not a patient man!

Over the years I had learned how to manage a $500 trip budget utilizing $100 session buy-ins on $5 tables.  I know, I know, people say you can’t do that and last.  All I found when I “upped” my buy-in and loss limit was that I lost more!  Regression is not for me!

I am a cautious up-as-you-win type of craps player now.   My wins finance additional bets only when I have locked up a profit.  Shooters, and that includes myself, MUST qualify before I will bet.  So, how do I qualify shooters?

First, I use a modified 5-count like the “Captain’s”.   If your unfamiliar with this strategy go to the book section of this site and buy “Beat The Craps out of the Casinos” by Frank Scoblete.  It will explain the 5-count and how to apply it.

I say modified, because I do not adhere to the Captain’s 5-count in the strictest sence.  What I’m saying is that I never bet on a new shooter until he has thrown the dice at “least” 5 times, minimum.  But, I still may not bet on the shooter even if they have throwm 9 or 10 times.  Let me give you an example.

Let’s say a new shooter throws the following sequence: 5,2,11,10 and 9.  Would you bet on this shooter and if so, how would you bet?  How about a new shooter with this sequence: 9, 4,3,11,6?  What about a new shooter with this sequence: 7,2,11,4,9,5?  And lastly what about a new shooter with this sequence: 5,2,6,8,5,4? 

The only one I would bet on, and the only bet I would make is a place bet on the 5 for the last shooter with the sequence of: 5,2,6,8,5,4?  I look for consistency in the numbers that the shooter throws.  They have to repeat a number at least once before I bet on them.  Have you ever seen a craps shooter throw a 6 for his number and then proceed to throw only 5’s and 9’s before they 7 out?  How about the shooter that throws 5 10’s and never hits his point number of 9?   I follow the “trend.”

I was sitting at a blackjack table, I believe it was Thursday night, when this individual ran up to the BJ table, laid down a $50 bet and said to the dealer, “Look at that”, as he pointed to a roulette table.  Black had come up 23 times in a row!  He asked the dealer what his next bet would be if he were sitting at the table?  The dealer replied, “Red, of course.”  And I commented, “You’d be wrong.  You bet the trend or you don’t bet.”  And he said, “Then I’d be wrong.”  Then I asked, “At what point would you have started betting red?  If it was after 10 straight blacks you’d have lost the next 13 in a row!”  Bet the trend!   By the way, the guy that put down the $50 bet lost, he bet $100 on the next hand and lost that, and bet $150 on the next hand and lost that!  Maybe he should have bet black!

A similar circumstance happened to me at the craps table.   A random shooter throws 3 4’s in the space of seven rolls.  I place the 4 for $10 and he proceeds to throw 2 more before he sevens out.  Profit, plus $26.

When I’m the shooter, I also qualify myself, especially if it is my first toss on the table.  If it’s at a $10 table I may not even take odds on my first sequence.  If I make it past 5 tosses then I take odds and note which numbers I have been hitting before placing any additional numbers.  If I am at a $5 table I will take single odds on my pass line bet right away but wait on any place bets to see which numbers are coming up consistently.

One morning at a $5 table I threw an easy 4 took single odds and came right back with a 3/1.  Next toss was 6.   I took single odds and place the 4 for $5.   Two rolls later I threw another 4 (3/1).

With all shooters, including myself, I take only one place bet and make that pay for itself, waiting for at least 3 hits, before I spread out to another number.  And that number must also be one that the shooter (or me) is also hitting consistently.  If there is no discernable pattern for an additional number, then I just stick with my original place number.  I press only after I have at least 3 hits on a number and thereafter press 1 unit on each additional hit.  If the shooter makes a couple of pass line numbers I will also begin to play the pass line, but only after I am ahead for this shooter.

Does it work all the time?  Of course not!  The beauty of this system for me is that it is simple and easy to understand, works with a small bankroll, it works for me and, allows me to play at $10 tables if that is all that is available.   I do not switch back and forth from the do side to the don’t side.  If the dice are not passing then I’ll get my shots at shooting quick enough.

Using a conservative approach and this system allows you to stay at a table longer, thus allowing you to be there should a hot random roller show up or you yourself hit a monster roll.

Good luck!

And remember, any win is better than any loss … any day.

Pablo

Return To Paul's Parables