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Dice Setter Precision Shooter's Newsletter
Welcome to another edition of the Precision Shooter Newsletter! January and February were incredibly busy on the site. In fact, they were the busiest months in history. So, to all of you newcomers, welcome! And to those of you who've been around for awhile, thanks for your continued support of Dice Setter.
Door
Number Two
A
few years back Marilyn vos Savant, who writes the “Ask Marilyn” column in Parade
Magazine, caused quite a stir with her answer to the following reader’s question:
"Suppose
you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a
car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No.1, and the host, who knows what's
behind the other doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat behind it. He then
says to you, 'Do you want to switch to door No.2?' Is
it to your advantage to make the switch?" Her answer -- that the contestant should always switch doors -- has been analyzed by mathematicians at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and computer programmers at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. It has been tested in classrooms from second grade to graduate level at thousands of schools around the world. And it still stirs debate among people who see it for the first time.
Let’s
restate the problem. Monty Hall, a fine,
upstanding game-show host, has randomly placed a car behind one of three closed doors.
There is a goat behind each of the other two doors. "First you point to a door,"
he explains. "Then I'll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat. After I've
shown you, the goat, you make your final choice, and you win whatever is behind that
door.”
You
really want that new car. But you know you only have a one-in-three chance of getting it
right. You point to Door Number One. Mr. Hall opens Door Number Three and shows you a
goat. Now there are two doors remaining. It
seems like your odds just improved to 50/50. Do
you stick with Door One or do you switch to Door Number Two? Or doesn't it matter?
To
see which strategy works best you can try playing the game over and over to see which wins
most often. The results contradict most people's intuition that, when there are only two
unopened doors left, the odds on each one must be one-in-two, or 50/50. But the fact that Mr. Hall opened another door did
not affect the odds on Door Number One. You
had a one-in-three chance of being right to begin with, and you still have a one-in three
chance after he opens Door Number Three and shows you the goat. You knew he was going to open another door and
reveal a goat regardless of what was behind Door Number one, so his action provides no new
information about Door Number One. Therefore, since the odds on Door 1 are still
one-in-three, and the only other place the car could be is behind Door Number Two, the
odds of Door Number Two being the correct choice are now two-in-three.
Another
way to explain this is as follows. The probability of picking the wrong door in the
initial stage of the game is two-out-of-three. If the contestant picks the wrong door
initially, the host must reveal the remaining empty door in the second stage of the game.
Thus, if the contestant switches after picking the wrong door initially, the contestant
will win the prize. The probability of winning by switching then reduces to the
probability of picking the wrong door in the initial stage, which is clearly
two-out-of-three. Still don’t get it? There are literally hundreds of on-line math-game sites where you can test the theory. Have fun with it. Crapsfest is Back! Join Heavy,
Soft Touch, Dice Coach, Michael "The Professor" Vernon and friends May 20 - 22,
2005 in fabulous Las Vegas, Nevada for three days of seminars, one-on-one coaching, and
live casino sessions. It is THE craps event of 2005. Here's what attendees had to say
about Crapsfest 2004:
Part 9: Give That Dog A Bone (part 1 was in the Feb/March Newsletter, part 2 was in the April Newsletter, part 3 was in the May/June Newsletter, part 4 was in the July/August Newsletter, part 5 was in the September Newsletter, part 6 was in the October Newsletter, part 7 was in the November Newsletter and part 8 was in the December/January Newsletter) Well fellow crapsters, the journey goes on, one step at a time, but these articles have come to their conclusion. I
have had some great successes at the tables since picking up this DI obsession, and I have
had some miserable failures. I continue to
learn and evolve my game. Striving to improve
as I hope you do also. Before I sign off,
I’d like to come back to an issue that I brought up previously. Back
in Part 5 and Part 6 I mentioned that I would talk about why I think Dice Influencing and
craps table math does not mix. Oil and
vinegar. Alcohol and gunpowder. Paris Hilton and classy elegance. Yeah, this might sound like a strange statement
coming from me, what with all the graphs and charts and such that I’ve posted over
the while. Let
me explain myself before you get the wrong idea. There
is no doubt that the game of craps is all about probabilities and statistics (math). Maybe more so then any other casino game, if only
because of the myriad and multiple concurrent bets available to the craps player. Each bet having its own odds of occurrence and
unique pay-off structure. As
we know, all the craps bets and rules are centered on the design of the random
distribution of number occurrences that are possible when two six-side cubes are rolled
and their top face results are combined. The
house advantage (or HA) for all craps bets are based on manipulations of the payouts from
the true statistical odds of this theoretical random distribution. I’m
sure that you all would agree with me that it is important to understand some of the basic
principles at the craps tables. ~
The dice distribution table is made up of 36 possible combinations. ~
The expected frequency of the 7 is six times in 36 rolls. ~
The expected frequency of the 6 is five times in 36 rolls. ~
The odds of rolling a six before a seven are 6 to 5 against, yet the casino pays the PL at
1:1 only and the Place 6 at 7:6, ~
and so on and so on for all the available craps bets. Most
of us want to know what bets have the lowest vigorish (HA) to give us the best chance for
a score. In other words the least down-side
risk while waiting for ole lady luck to nuzzle up and scratch us behind the ears. By knowing how the house calculates the odds and
payoffs we can at least make an informed decision on the gamble we are going to take. Some
of you have learned the proper odds vs actual bet payouts through sheer time at the
tables. Many have learned the odds from one or more of the many books that spell out the
–EV bets in all their gory details. Some
have even taken the time to memorize all the tables and numbers for all the bets from the
basic place 6 to the hopping hard ten. Having
a strong understanding of the game is of course a basic requirement and something anyone
who wishes to do more then just “sniff around the table” must take the time to
swallow. But
the DI simply MUST understand more than the fundamental
numbers of the game. Why? Well, what is the fundamental goal and objective
of the DI? Isn’t it to alter the standard roll frequency distribution probability
table? Ok, I stand corrected. The fundamental
objective is to make some money at the craps table. LOL. But, really, to achieve the objective of putting
more cabbage in our pockets, other then smart money management and a good scratch from
lady luck, we must find a way to roll fewer sevens and more point numbers (or vise-verse
for darkside betting). That brings us back to
altering the expected rolls distribution probability from what is found in a standard
random game. Dice Influencing. If
a DI successfully alters the dice distribution probability tables, then he can no longer
use the “quoted” EV/HA figures. Yeah,
let me say that again. He can no longer
use the standard EV/HA figures. The
-1.414% PL, et. al. just no longer have any meaning.
By altering the probabilities, the DI is now in a position to re-write the
rules. He/She must now figure EV/HA based on
the new “true” odds probabilities. If
the DI is able to reduce the number of sevens in 36 to five instead of six, we now have a
new probability distribution. In the random
set the six is 6:5 against. In the new
distribution table, the six is now 5:5 even money. The
Pass Line is now paying at true odds for the Point Six and the Place Six is getting $7 for
$6. In this new distribution the correct
(true odds) payout for the Place Six should be $6 for $6 even money. This DI is getting a bonus $1 for every unit on a
Place Six hit. He/She is now charging
the casino to entertain him/her. We must recognize that once the distribution probabilities are altered, it is no longer a matter of over-coming-the-HA for a bet. All the “standard” HAs have no meaning and must be recalculated based on the new, altered, distribution probabilities to have any relevance. This
is the meaning behind my comment that “Dice Influencing and craps table math do not
mix.” Perhaps it would be more accurate
for me to say, “Dice Influencing and traditional craps probability calculations do
not mix.” So
what is this “new” skewed distribution probability? If we need to recalculate the figures, what is the
new distribution we are to use? Ahhh,
now that is the crux of the DI world. This is
where the math of the game blends with the art/skill of the DI shooter. Due to the nature of the DI activity that includes
varying degrees of skill, hand-eye coordination, focus and concentration, differences in
physical make-up, etc, the new distribution is unique to each individual. Joe
might be reasonably good influencing the cubes. He’s
been a practicing DI for the past year and a half during which he has focused exclusively
on perfecting the use of the 3V. He prefers
to shoot stick-right with an under-handed “bowler” grip and toss. Joe’s
favorite betting strategy is to run a power-press progression on the 6 & 8. Jill
is intrigued by the greater pay-off to bet ratio of the outside place bets, she
hasn’t been practicing all that much, but continues to work the 2V set to try for the
outside number hits. Jill likes the
Straight-Out (SO) position and tosses with a one finger front grip. She is pretty good about consistently landing her
dice somewhere in the come-box. John
also shoots the 2V. He practiced many years
with other sets, but is now settling on the 2V and buying the outside numbers. John has an interesting physical characteristic in
that his first three fingers are the exact same length.
This physical quirk makes him amazingly adept with the three finger front
grip. Joe,
Jill and John are all different people. Each
shooter coming to the table with their own agenda, their own style, and their own skill
level ability. Would you expect each of these
shooters to consistently show the same number distributions? If Joe and Jill went to the casino together would
it make sense for them to use the same betting strategy?
(<Think about that one at your next hook-up, or craps class
get-together!>) Each
must track their ability and skills and determine for themselves their “new”
distribution model. Once a shooter knows his
“true” distribution model that is when the “math” requirement kicks
in. The shooter needs enough math to
recalculate the true odds and payoff EV based on the new distribution model. Math vs Experience:Just
as “man-cannot-live-by-bread-alone”, the well-rounded DI cannot live and die by
the math of the game alone. The math is a
critical aspect and provides the foundation for every strategy/bet/gamble that we make,
but as any experienced craps player can tell you, the volatility associated with any bet
can have your bankroll swinging up and down more then the gold chains around a rappers
neck. It
becomes a bit of a catch-22. You cannot
blindly play by the math, and yet, you cannot play blind and ignore the math. So
what is a poor ole dog to do, caught in the middle by such a seeming paradox? The answer is just that. The savvy craps player must find a way to play the
game from the middle. Not blinded by the math
and yet not blind to the math. Blinded
by the math: For
me the issue of the “math of craps” is that all the math formulas are based on
the probabilities using the law of large numbers. The
theoretical random toss distribution (out of 36 rolls: 6 sevens, 5 each of six and eight,
4 each of 5 and 9, etc.) is itself based on probability over a large number of rolls. This is just as true if we are talking about the
random game or if we are talking about the altered probabilities of the DI game. During
any average craps game it is a stretch to get in 100-200 rolls, let alone the thousands
required to “normalize” the distributions.
During any given session our few dozen rolls can easily be characterized by
the standard and expected variations to the norm of what we have carefully tracked in the
thousands of practice rolls. Volatility
is still a big part of the game. No matter
how well you’ve tracked your throws and how big an advantage you have on the place 4
or place 6 “in practice”, when it comes to the real-deal, we all have to keep
our heads. Ya gotta still use smart money
management, start slow and ensure your toss on the casino table is showing you the numbers
you are used to seeing on your practice table. If
your expected numbers are not showing, keep your bets small while you work through what is
wrong. Walk away if you can’t find a way
to get the numbers you expect. Or, if you are
skilled at reading your toss, adjust your betting to the numbers you are tossing. When your numbers are showing, bet into your
advantage, maybe start slow, but don’t be timid when you have the edge and the
opportunity. IMHO,
it is not as simple as knowing that the 6 and 9 are your signature numbers and slapping
down 5 unit bets on those boxes. Understanding
and being able to see our own shooting “Trends” is critical to success. Testing the waters by jumping-in-with-both-feet
(as Heavy warns us) simply because the math tells us we have an advantage, is a good way
to find ourselves trying to dog paddle in the deep end wearing a long, shaggy fur coat. The
math and the numbers give us a good foundation and a solid starting point. But, the numbers alone won’t make up for an
inability to “read” the table and inexperience at “reading” and
reacting to the results of our tosses. Blind to the math: As
I’ve already mentioned, we also cannot go to the tables ignorant of the bet
probabilities and payouts. As DI’s the
math of the game tells us where our advantage lies. A
large part of this is tracking and recording rolls during practice sessions. Once the tracking part has been done, then the
math part can kick in for the purpose of determining which numbers are rolling strong with
our selected dice set. Figure out how your
numbers are rolling and what your “new” distribution graph looks like and
you’re in the power position of determining the new “true” odds of your
bets. Tracking
thousands of rolls in your basement and calculating EV for the myriad of available craps
bets is not the most fun thing to do in the world. Certainly
it is not nearly as fun as getting a nice win during a casino session. As a DI, we use the former to helps us get more
of the latter. And that is fun! Isn’t that what we are all about? A final bow-wowI
hope you have found these articles to have been informative. Perhaps at least you have found them somewhat
entertaining. When I began these articles
over a year ago I was still a relative DI noob and my hope was to help other new DI’s
by sharing my learning experiences. It is funny to think that I began with the intention
to write them from a “newbie” perspective.
I never thought that a year later I’d still be thinking that I’m
writing from a “newbie” perspective, but I am. My
journey has not ended. I’ve still got my
nose to the trail always trying to sniff out that elusive quarry, the “Monster
Hand”. At several stops along the way,
this Dog has dug up a few tasty ole soup bones, even a few “Monster Bones”, but
in many ways I’m still just a pup with a lot to learn.
It
is a bit cliché, but there is no “destination”, only the journey. My journey continues and I hope my collections of
stories have helped your journey to be both enjoyable and profitable. See
you at the tables, and remember; Keep your toss straight and your rack full.
Influencing
ONE Roll Rather Than EVERY Roll For
me, one of the strongest attractions about Darkside-shooting is that you don’t need
to be nearly as good of a dice-influencer in order to affect ONE roll as you do if
you want to impact EVERY roll. Of
course, the same thing could be said for Rightside Point-shooting where you only have a
Passline wager backed up with Odds…and no other active bets. In either context, you are looking to influence
just ONE number in order to win. If
you have a little bit of influence over the dice, then the number where that persuasion
can bear the quickest fruit is with the 7. The
purpose behind this Don’t-side journey was to prove to myself that I could make just
as much money by shooting from that side of the dice as I could by shooting from the more
optimistic Do-side. For
the player who is looking to harmonize his skills together with the strongest and most
dominant number of all the possible dice-combinations in order to bring about a faster win
(and usually with less risk) than a Rightsider with the same skill-level; then
Darkside-shooting (for a 7-Out) is the most obvious answer. To
determine whether this is an approach that is workable for your current dicesetting
skill-set; you have to ask yourself: Ø “Can
I influence any other number MORE than I can influence the already-dominant 7?” Ø “How
frequently can I intentionally throw the 7 compared to how frequently I can intentionally
throw any other given number?” Ø “Can
I make just as much money shooting from the Don’ts as I can from the Do-side of the
dice?” Ø “Does
my average hand-length indicate that I’ll be able to shoot long-duration hot-hands
and mid-duration warm-hands frequently enough to generate steady winnings, or can I derive
more profit from short-duration hands by intentionally shooting for the 7?” Please
understand that I’m not trying to convert your religion, sexual persuasion or
political affiliation. Rather, it is
important that you completely understand the FULL potential of your current skills. In many cases, it will mean that you should at
least consider what kind of money Darkside-shooting could supplement your bankroll with,
compared to what your Rightside-shooting is contributing right now. The
premise behind this entire Shooting From The Don’ts…A Journey of
Opportunity series is to give you a clear, wide-angle view at what an extended
walk on the Darkside can look like. Goodbye
Canada…Hello Love Canal
No,
that’s not the name of my latest porno movie…rather, it captures the transformed
state of mind that a player goes through when he leaves the Honeymoon Capital of the World
(Niagara Falls, Ontario), and enters Niagara Falls, New York (the former unofficial
toxic-waste capital of the continental U.S.). Though
those two localities share the same name as well as the thundering and mighty falls (often
referred to as a newlywed-brides second biggest disappointment on her honeymoon);
the two cities could not be more different. Niagara
Falls, NY has had the unenvied and unfortunate reputation for the last couple of decades
as the most toxic community in the U.S. Though
I’m pretty sure the Chamber of Commerce didn’t specifically set out to acquire
that reputation, it kind of fell on them when thousands of previously unattributed deaths
(including that of countless children) and umpteen hideous birth-defects were traced
directly to the mélange of chemicals that had been pumped into and stored in the former
Love Canal shipping channel and covered over to make way for suburban subdivisions,
elementary schools, day-care centers, and seniors centers…in other words, a perfect
backyard for your kids to grow up in. Until
a short time ago, the former Love Canal neighborhoods looked like the abandoned villages
surrounding Chernobyl…only not quite as bucolic. Swing-sets still stood, as did the
homes, churches, schools and fire-stations. Were
it not for the green, brown and reddish chemical magma leachate that relentlessly oozed up
through the ground; this could be Anytown, U.S.A…and apparently a PERFECT place to
build a new casino. Seneca
Niagara Casino
To
be fair, the Seneca Niagara Casino is not inside the barricaded, worst-contaminated
parts of the area. In fact it is quite a
distance from the nastiest sections of it…which is a lot like saying “it’s
in the NON-peeing end of the pool”. Clearly,
a short visit there isn’t going to instantly cause you to develop a third eye or
suddenly sprout four arms (without any hands), but it’s important to note that
there’s a good reason that Love Canal doesn’t get very many tourists. On
the other hand, you probably are best advised to drink non-local bottled water unless you
are doing a little collecting of samples for your home-chemistry set and looking for
Strontium, arsenic, dioxins, acrolein, bromodichloromethane,
selenium hexafluoride, pentachlorophenals, cadmium, and of course my favorite
executioner-du-jour (chlorodibenzofurans), along
with 421 other equally appetizing chemicals that are now partially entombed in a plastic
pool-liner type of “I-hope-this-low-priced-condom-is-strong-enough”
containment-measure that provides folks around here with a warm and comfy EPA blanket that
lets them sleep at night. The
casino is operated by the Seneca Nation of Indians and is housed within what used to be
the former abandoned Niagara Falls Convention Center. If you think in terms of a
mega-sized, crescent-roofed Quonset-hut with some neon-lights and an endless parade of
slot-machines, you’ve got a fairly accurate picture. At
~110,000 square feet, this casino is on par with the size of the Showboat and Resorts in
Atlantic City; Bellagio, Circus Circus, Monte Carlo, and New Frontier in Vegas; the Grand
Casino in Gulfport, or about twice the size of the Gold Strike and Hollywood casinos in
Tunica. Ventilation
is top-notch and the place is kept cleaner than you’d expect for the amount of people
that go through here on an average day. Free
on-site or near-site parking has been a little tight in the past, but that has eased
somewhat in the two years since it opened. There are heavy local fines for illegally
parked cars (that includes a strongly policed tag-and-tow area). Additional county-run parking is cheap and
accessible. The
Tables…The Players…The Dealers
Four
twelve-foot craps tables await the eager player. The
dealers run their games with confidence and nearly all of the players are locals. Ø All
four of their craps tables are beautiful to shoot on.
They aren’t overly crowded and most players are fairly knowledgeable. Ø With almost no tourists or out-of-towners, most
players know or at least are familiar with the faces of fellow players. Ø You’ll
usually find the table-minimums set at $5 and rarely above $10. In fact, they are reluctant to raise the
table-limit unless someone specifically asks the Pit Manager to do so. In that case, they’ll raise the table-minimum
to $15, but closely monitor it to make sure it stays busy…otherwise they drop it back
down just as quickly. Casino-management
prefers the “quantity of players” route to make their money instead of
the currently in vogue “quality of bet-size” route that most other
operators prefer. This has more to do with
their recognition and acknowledgement of the finite number of local players in their
geographic market area than it does with eschewing the current gaming-position
yield-factor philosophy. Ø Their
box-people, table-game supervisors, pit-managers, and Casino Hosts are mostly top-notch
professionals that could handily fit in at any other gaming jurisdiction without missing a
beat. I have nothing but praise for their
demeanor. As
I mentioned a moment ago, I like the tables at Seneca.
Ø They
are neutral-rolling layouts that offer low-to-medium backwall-rebounds. Ø Tight-radius
corners means more flat backwall area and less likelihood that a Passline rolling-lane
toss will errantly hit the curved sidewall/backwall transition-area (instead of a flat
area). Ø A
low-energy, low-trajectory, minimal backspin throw that initially lands on the free-Odds
area of the Pass-Line (about 2.5 inches past the outer white line where it straightens out
at a 90-degree angle) will bring my dice TO the backwall without any off-axis
rebound. At little harder or a little farther
out on my landing, results in a slightly bigger rebound and rollout. Ø While
some players complain about the low-lighting levels in this casino, I haven’t run
into any problem with tracking the dice or clearly seeing their exact facial-outcomes. click here for the rest of the article! 14 Months at the Sic-Bo Tableby Perry Benedik
Just as the title implies, “Fourteen
Months at the Sic-Bo Table” by Perry Benedik (PerryB) contains a database and
forensic-like analysis of more than 46,000 actual Sic-Bo rolls that were recorded by the
author at live-play casino Sic-Bo tables from September 25, 2003 to November 25, 2004 . You can click here to see how Sic-Bo is played and
why Sic-Bo Big and Small bets have a 2.8% house edge, equivalent to single zero Roulette. With your order, you receive a 22 page e-book, 273 pages of analyzed Sic-Bo results of 46,288 rolls, plenty of useful strategies, as well as some of Perry's famous articles. If you have any comments or ideas for future issues, feel free to email me at ed@dicesetter.com And as always, we are for contributors with a fresh perspective. Know someone who would be interested in receiving Good Luck! |
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