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Dice Setter Precision Shooter's Newsletter
Happy New Year! Welcome to the December/January edition of the Precision Shooter Newsletter!
Superstition
and Rules to Play By What
the heck is up with crapsters and this superstition thing?
You know what I’m talking about. The
presumption that there is a cause and effect relationship between certain events that
occur during the course of the game. Take
that “dice off the table” thing, or “see a horn bet a horn” for
example. Is there really anything to that? Occasionally
connections between two apparently unrelated events are discovered after careful study,
but most of the time these apparent connections are found to be mere coincidence. This is
especially true in random games of chance such as casino craps. Consider for a moment how these superstitions come
into being. Early
psychological behaviorist Ivan Pavlov demonstrated it quite nicely. The
work that made Pavlov a household name in psychology actually began as a study in
digestion. He was looking at the digestive process in dogs, especially the interaction
between salivation and the action of the stomach. He realized they were closely linked by
reflexes in the autonomic nervous system. Pavlov wanted to see if external stimuli could
affect this process, so he rang a bell at the same time he gave food to his dogs. After a
while, the dogs - which before only salivated when they saw and ate their food - began to
salivate whenever the bell rang, even if no food were present. This became popularly known
as a conditioned reflex, and the learning process became known as
"conditioning." Meanwhile,
back at the craps table, where some gamblers think they can anticipate the future outcome
of the roll based on past events. In truly
random games such notions are nothing more than superstition that grow out of
conditioning. Just as an example, let’s
consider the belief that “if the dice go off the table the seven will roll
next.” In fact, based on a pure
random roll the seven WILL roll approximately 17% of the time – no matter when the
dice are tossed. Let’s say one person at
the table believes in the superstition and calls his bets off. If the seven does not appear the next toss nobody
really thinks much about it because it has no effect on their own wagers. But supposed the seven does roll next? Everyone playing the right side of the game would
lose their wagers while the “superstitious” player’s action stayed up. A bell has rung.
Ring it often enough and an association will be made. And when that association is made one more person
begins to believe. The
greater question is whether or not subscribing to these superstitions does any harm? With superstitions that prompt the player to turn
his bets off – the answer is no. In the
“dice off the table” example, the player turned his bets off. On the next roll of the dice he could not win
– but neither could he lose. And if you
follow the math of the game that means he will ultimately lose less. There
are times when superstitions can become expensive. The
old “see a horn bet a horn” belief is a good example. Like the all-powerful seven, a horn number will
roll about 17% of the time. But that means it
will NOT roll 83% of the time. Toss out a $4
horn bet and lose it and it’s no big deal in most players’ minds. Toss it out and win $27 on the roll of a twelve
and it IS a big deal. The player remembers
the big wins – but his mind skips over the losses.
But we know for a fact that if you bet the horn at this level over the long
haul you will lose $24 for every 36 wagers. Over
a series of sessions that can add up to a substantial edge you’re giving up to the
house. Many
precision shooters use superstitions a bit differently.
They use them, along with knowledge of which sets are being used, to read
the table and the shooter. If, for example,
you see a player setting the V-3, then tossing an ace-deuce craps you know he’s had a
three-face shift of the dice on axis. You
also know that if he does not correct the grip or toss issue that caused the excess
rotation of one die that there is a likelihood that the ace-deuce or yo will show again. So, you toss out $2 on the ace-deuce/yo or a $4
horn and look for a lightning strike. It
happens all the time. My
advice for players looking to play the hops and props – dedicate a very small portion
of you session money for this type of play, then set some very firm rules regarding when
and how you’ll play that action. Oh, and
save that salivating for the steak house For the second year running, the top three books for 2004 (purchased via dicesetter.com) are as follows.
These three were head and shoulders above the rest of the field in sales. Scoblete's overhyped Craps Underground made a slight splash early in the year but was resoundingly panned by the average dice influencer. Shooting From The Don’ts…A Journey of Opportunity - Part V by the Mad Professor I have a love-hate relationship with the two casinos in Niagara Falls, Ontario.
Ø
I
love playing there, and the tables are fantastic as far as consistent on-axis performance
is concerned.
Ø
I
love the dealers, most of the box-people and Table Game Supervisors, along with a lot of
the Pit Managers, Casino Hosts and Shift Bosses…they treat me incredibly well.
Ø
I
love the incredible profits that I’ve pulled off of the Niagara tables over the past
half-decade since dice games were legalized there. When
I look at the total sum, it staggers the imagination.
What
I HATE about both of those casinos are the crowded conditions that continually
plague them.
Winning
money off of the Casino Niagara and Niagara Fallsview Resort
tables is relatively easy…and obviously I love that; but making money fast
enough, even at their $25 or $50 tables, is somewhat problematic, and I hate
waiting around for another shooting-opportunity.
It’s
not that their dealers are slow…far from it…rather, with so many players and so
much betting-action; the dice usually take an excruciating amount of time just to make one
lap around the table.
Making
decent money on the Casino Niagara and Niagara Fallsview tables
is a test of patience and it’s a test of discipline.
These layouts pay a huge dividend if you can show some controlled tolerance
and mature restraint, but they charge an equally hefty fee if you are impatient,
intolerant, impulsive or overly fervent.
Niagara
Fallsview Resort
The
casino here is fairly big (about 10,000 square feet larger than LV’s MGM Grand or
roughly five times the size of the Golden Nugget casino).
It’s only been open since April of 2004, so it still has that new
car smell to it. Ø
It
was built to augment Casino Niagara which has been open for a little more
than ten years (although craps has only been allowed for just over half of that time). Ø
Fallsview
has all the casino games that you’d expect…and a few that aren’t as widely
known. Needless to say, their 3000+ slot
machines outstrip the number of gaming tables (~150) by a 20:1 ratio. Ø
Though
their all-suite hotel is relatively small, their run-of-the-mill Players Suites are on par
with Mandalay Bay, Beau Rivage and Borgata, but they seriously lack over-the-top gaudiness
if that is what you are looking for. Ø
Their
Galleria Shoppes have the usual array of high-end retail from Swarovski crystal and
Philippe Artois shirts to Dolce & Gabbana shoes and Havana cigars. If you’re looking for cheap and tacky
souvenirs, you’ll find plenty of it in other areas around the city, but you
won’t find it here…well, at least not for under $100. Ø
In-house
entertainment runs the gamut from Wynona, Neil Diamond and the Doobie Brothers to REO
Speedwagon, Shania Twain and Bob Dylan. Ø
There
are innumerable things to do and see around the Falls (in addition to exploring the caves
that are under the cataracts), like the countless museums and attractions that line
Clifton Hill and the Niagara Parkway, or the seventeen wineries that are minutes away, or
the Seneca Casino that is located within walking distance on the American side of the
Falls, or the many wildlife attractions that are within a five-minute driving radius.
However,
we’re here to play craps…and in particular, to shoot from the Don’t-side of
the dice. Let’s take a look at what
we’re up against:
The
Fallsview Tables Ø
All
eight (8) of their tables are "short" 12-footers, meaning the nominal end-to-end
throwing distance is 10' 8". Ø
The
sub-surface is cabinet-grade 1 & 3/4" plywood with a
melanine-bonded/arborite-type wood-grain veneer. Ø
The
unpadded felt is an 80%/20% wool/polyester blend with no underlay. Ø
All
their tables respond well to most types of throws from Low, Slow and Easy (<15 degrees
of landing-angle)...all the way to a high-trajectory (80+ degree landing) Dead-Cat Bounce.
Ø
Table-bounce
is moderate, but definitely NOT lively. The table absorbs quite a bit of descent-impact
energy, but is less absorbent of forward-moving energy. The obviousness of that statement is revealed most
forcefully by the fact that “at-the-wall” type steep landings give very
little rollback, while landing-zones that are further out require a significantly higher
modulation of throwing-force. Ø
For
greater clarity, that means that if you land the dice at or near (within 2-inches of) the
base of the backwall with a steep-descent low-energy throw; then the dice tend to
stick-and-stay…with minimal rollback, if any. Ø
If
they land further out and roll into the backwall; then you obviously have to
regulate their forward-momentum quite a bit more in order for them to achieve the same
result. Both types of tosses
work…it’s just that the at-the-backwall-landings tend to require a lot less
effort and energy-input modulation to achieve consistency on these tables…but of
course, your mileage may vary. Ø
On
these layouts, excess backspin causes high-energy deflection (like a stone skipping across
the water) WITHOUT causing the dice to slow down enough before they hit the backwall. In other words, the tables do not bleed-off enough
energy if the dice are carrying too much backspin. Ø
Three
of the pro’s who play here regularly use a no-spin knuckle-ball type medium-angle
lob. They target the dice squarely at the
crotch of the table where the felt meets the backwall rubber. To watch it when their aim is accurate is a thing
of shock, awe and profit…but to watch it when their aim is off by just a little bit,
is to witness what appears to be a random-rollers convention. Ø
As
is best advised when contemplating wagers on ANY shooter (even skilled ones who make their
living off of this game); it is important to gauge their right-now targeting
accuracy BEFORE you pony up your money on the layout.
If they are hitting their mark…then I pile on the shekels. If they aren’t, then my kruggerands stay right
where they should be…safely out of harms way and in my rail. Ø
The
table-rails are about 1.5 inches higher than the industry-standard height of their
brethren at Casino Niagara, but the rail-width is ~1.0 inch narrower, so
that makes up for some of the difference if you are used to resting your hip or belly
against the rail when you shoot. Ø
Table
minimums are $10, but expect a number of layouts to be set at $15, $25, and possibly
$50/$100 depending on the time of day/week/month and season. Ø
In
the early morning, not all the tables will be open but you should be able to find at least
one $10 game. Additional tables open at 12:30 pm (noon). Some of those MAY be $10, but
that's hardly ever the case during the late spring, summer or early fall. In the winter you are more likely to find more $10
tables more often. Obviously on the weekends
and during holidays (even during the winter) $15, $25 and $50 minimums will be the norm. Ø
There
is a significant lull at most of the craps tables between 4:30 pm and 7:30 pm. That period offers a good opportunity to select
from multiple open, but sparsely populated tables. It
is also the appropriate time to ask the Pit Manager if he’ll lower the price of a
high-denomination table or at least let you play at it (solo) for a less-than-posted
bet-amount until other players join in. We
discuss this approach in much greater detail in the upcoming Creating More
Shooting Opportunities – Part Three.
Ø
Normally
you'll be limited to a $2000 max-bet, but they will raise the limit on a player-specific
basis. That is, the table sign will still show either a $1k or $2k-max, but they'll allow
you to go to $5k or $10k with prior consent first being had and obtained. If you are on good terms with either of the two
senior Executive Hosts; then they’ll do all of the legwork…you just have to show
up with your money or Line-of-Credit. Ø
In
the Salon Privée high-roller room, the $50 (daytime) table allows a $5000 (and sometimes
up to $25,000) max flat-bet with corresponding full Odds.
At night (from ~8 pm onward), this layout usually turns into a $100 table
except during mid-winter, mid-week blizzards when they may actually lower it all the way
down to $25. Ø
Odds
offered at all tables are of the standard 3x, 4x, 5x variety. Ø
By
the time you read this, they will be in the process of installing the Fire Bet
layout on their tables. Obviously a skilled
shooter will have to recalibrate his throw-dynamics to compensate for the felt w/slightly
padded-backing change. click here for the rest of the article! Maddog's Journey by Maddog Part 8: Taking a Class (part 1 was in the Feb/March Newsletter, part 2 was in the April Newsletter and part 3 was in the May/June Newsletter and part 4 was in the July/August Newsletter and part 5 was in the September Newsletter and part 6 was in the October Newsletter part 7 was in the November Newsletter) Damn it was cold. Of course it’s always cold this time of year. The sun would be up soon and hopefully that would take some of the bite out of the winter chill. I don’t know what I was doing up this early anyway. The flight wasn’t scheduled for departure for several hours yet. Jeeze, this was just like a kid on Christmas morning or something. Overcome with excitement and unable to sleep. A head full of anticipation for the surprises that waited and the hopes for that one special and expected gift under the tree.Goals… Why take a class? I had received a email questionnaire prior to the class. The little survey asked this very question, “What did I hope to get out of the class?” I again contemplated what the answer to that question was for me.The Class… I could probably fill up several pages on what went on during that Axis Power Craps clinic, but since I already wrote a pretty extensive trip report on that subject, I’ll stick with just a few observations:Preparation… I think it makes a huge difference and is a great benefit for the folks that do the majority of their grip and toss preparation before taking the class. This is not to say that one has to be perfect, or that you can’t get a lot out of the class without prior experience or practice. But, by going through the tossing and studying before hand, by practicing how to set the dice and trying out some grips before hand, you get the benefit of being ready to “hit-the-ground-running”. By being prepared, your instructors can focus on the small tweaks needed to improve the issues in the grip and provide pertinent pointers on delivery and focus.Getting to watch it in live casino action… One of the things I wanted to do was watch a “pro” in action. Sometimes it can be difficult to stand at the craps table and just let the action go by. Those damn tables seem to very much have a sirens call working its magic and drawing you into playing the game. But to really get the full value of a session with the instructors it is a good idea to leave the game alone for awhile and pay close and serious attention to what the instructor is doing. Sometimes the best lessons are taught, not during a lecture or in the telling of a story or the careful review of books and class materials, but in the observations gleaned during live action.Be patient, be disciplined, be observant, be receptive. In a class, these are the keys to the kingdom. The kingdom of DI knowledge. Until next time, keep your toss straight and your rack full.Crapsfest 2005! It's not too early to start planning for CrapsFest
2005! Join Heavy, Soft Touch, Dice Coach, Michael Vernon and friends in
fabulous Las Vegas, May 20 - 22, 2005 for three days of seminars, one-on-one coaching, and
live casino sessions. (Keep up-to-date on Crapsfest plans and activities) "The
best time ever! I WILL be back."
Upcoming
Seminars Connecticut "Winning o'the Green" Craps Clinic - Join Heavy and Grits March 18-20 2005 If you have any comments or ideas for future issues, feel free to email me at ed@dicesetter.com And as always, we are looking for contributors with a fresh perspective.
Know someone who
would be interested in receiving future editions of
Dice
Setter
Precision Shooter's Newsletter, Good Luck!
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