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Dice Setter Precision Shooter's Newsletter
Las Vegas Crapsfest
2004! - October 15 - 17, 2004 Heavy, Dice Coach, Michael Vernon and Soft Touch have planned a very special, fun-filled weekend! In addition to our regular classes on Saturday and Sunday, we have an exciting event planned for Friday as well. Join us for shooting demonstrations, various speakers, toss tweaks, fantastic prizes and giveaways and much, much more! For complete information, click the link or the banner above! Don't miss out on the dice influencing event of the year!
by the Mad Professor
In
addition to the normal Road Trip kind of report you are used to seeing from me, this
article also focuses on many of the aspects of Come-Out betting when you are
Precision-Shooting from the Darkside.
If
you are looking to super-charge your WrongWay betting regimen or merely provide a
bit more turbo-boost to an already robust Darkside game-plan, then this one is definitely
for you.
Precision-Shooting
success is easier to accomplish when shooting from the Darkside than it is when shooting
from the Do.
If
you have the 7 working IN your favor during the Point-cycle, as opposed
to working AGAINST you; then you are in a much better position to take profitable
advantage of it.
If
your shooting-skills neednt be nearly as good before you start to make some reliable
profit; then in my books, Darkside-shooting holds even more merit for those who have had
difficulty in converting their shooting SKILL into sustainable Rightside PROFIT.
If
your dice-influencing skills are already highly developed; then Darkside-shooting can take
your profit to new altitudes.
Achievable
Goals
I
wanted to establish and then achieve a continually higher set of goals for each stop along
the way on this trip.
At
Casino Nova Scotia in Halifax I had accomplished several things: Ø
I
had been able to start with simple Dont Pass bets and validate my skill as a
Darkside-shooter. Ø
I
had gotten confident, not only with the shooting, but also in my ability to fly SO LOW
under the radar as to be almost invisible. Ø
I
had carefully gauged how many rolls it was taking me, on average, to 7-Out. This was critical information that I would use to
further refine my betting-methods as my journey continued. Ø
I
had gotten a reasonable amount of table-time in, yet no threats of bodily harm had been
made against me by other players because of their perception that I was betting
against them. Ø
Just
as important, I had gotten a full-ride Comp on all of my daily living needs as far as
food, shelter, shopping, parking, and entertainment was concerned. Ø
Moreover,
I had an even better perspective on what I could accomplish by using shooting from the
Donts.
Ø
To
make the Come-Out segment of each hand as LONG as possible; and, Ø
To
make the Point-cycle segment of each hand as SHORT as possible.
Ø
I
wanted to average AT LEAST 3 rolls of the dice on the Come-Out before establishing the
PL-Point. Ø
I
wanted the PL-Point to be as tough to repeat as possible. Ø
I
wanted to average a MAXIMUM Point-Cycle length of 5-rolls.
If
I could increase my C-O roll-average and reduce my Point-Cycle roll-average; I figured my
profitability would rise dramatically.
On
the Road Again
For
someone that loves to be on the road, especially the craps-trail road; driving from
state-to-state or province-to-province, gives me a chance to stay relaxed and to keep a
balanced perspective on what it is I do for a living.
With Ms. MPs ongoing illness, my travels hadnt taken me as far
afield as they normally do. The trade-off of
being able to spend some well-deserved time with her was obviously fully worth it.
The
drive from Halifaxs Casino Nova Scotia to my next destination, gave me plenty of
opportunity to plan my betting-methods, and especially focus on the Come-Out wagers that I
was planning to exploit on the Darkside.
When
shooting from either side of the line (PL or DP), I still treat the Come-Out portion of
the hand as a Game Within a Game. This
approach is based on the premise that the Point-cycle, or in the case of Darkside
shooting, the anti Point-cycle, calls for the use of one
dice-set while the Come-Out rolls require an entirely different dice-set in which to
exploit the various opportunities.
Therefore,
I treat ALL of my Come-Out action as a totally separate and distinct profit center.
Simply
stated, I may use one set for the initial Come-out Roll, but switch to another set if the
Come-out phase is still in effect and I havent yet set a PL-Point. The reason for this will become clear very
shortly, but in essence it holds that if you can snipe out back-to-back
(bullfrog repeaters) during the Point-cycle, then you should also be able to
do it just as successfully during the C-O phase as well.
That being the case, sometimes Ill change my C-O set in order to snipe out a
back-to-back-to-back win on one of the higher paying C-O Prop-wagers.
No
Dice
No Detour
I
was hoping to make a detour to
Casino
de Charlevoix in La Malbaie, Quebec, but craps is not one of their currently offered
games, so it was a straight-line push to the cosmopolitan city of Montreal.
It
gave me time to ponder the long-bandied advice that some guys give about the need
to be the master of more than one casino game.
Though
I understand the requirement for some people to sit down and take a rest once in a while,
I would rather not do it at a casino game where I dont have an edge. While youll often hear stories of how the
Austin Powers slot-machine win saved the day for a player who had lost large on the craps
table, I would think that there are many more untold stories of multitudes of additional
players who gave back as much or even more of their hard-earned craps profit on the same
machines because they had to sit down due to tired feet.
Listen,
Im all for taking the necessary breaks from the action when your health calls for
it, but I think we have to be cognizant of how expensive those slot-machine chair
rentals really can be. Okay, sermons over lets play craps. click here for the rest of the article! Maddog's Journeyby Maddog Part 5: Learning the Game of Craps (part 1 was in the Feb/March Newsletter, part 2 was in the April Newsletter and part 3 was in the May/June Newsletter and part 4 was in the July/August Newsletter)
Can
you beat the game, if you dont know the game?
Fresh
off that real butt-whipping that I received in my first stab at Dice Influencer-based
craps shooting; I began doing some real serious thinking about what I had done wrong. Even taking into account that I did not have the
dice influencing skills I thought I had, I had never done so poorly at a craps table. What was so different about that last outing?
One
thing that struck me was the realization that I had not been betting how I would normally
make bets at the craps table. I started out
by chasing the 6 and 8 like a puppy that first discovers it has a tail. Then when it seemed like I couldnt get those
numbers to hit how I wanted, started tossing bets here and there, hoping that something
would go right. Instead of having a basic
betting pattern and watching for a trend which was my standard table play, I was thinking,
hey, this set is supposed to result in more 6s.
Im gonna bet the 6 and 8 and use this set. and when they
didnt show, Id think ok, this set is supposed to also show some 5s
and 9s, lets bet those instead. Yes,
I correctly knew the numbers associated with a given axial-set, but Im sure you can
all see what I had failed to catch. The sets
will produce the numbers, if I can produce the toss.
Thinking
back critically at that performance I began to realize that I really didnt know what
I was doing as a DI. Oh, sure, I understood
the basics of the toss and was doing my best to execute.
But when it came to making bets, smart bets, there was a gap the size of the
Grand Canyon between my craps knowledge and what I should have known about craps before I
put my money on the felt. I had no strong
understanding of how the bets broke down by House Advantage (HA), or Expected Value (EV). Didnt understand how to correctly apply the
DI skill (that I didnt have) as leverage against the HA and to improve the EV. I dont think I even knew correct payoffs on
anything but the most basic of bets.
I
realized I had skipped an important if not crucial step in becoming a DI. I had jumped straight into controlled shooting,
without knowing the game, the bets, the payoffs, etc.
I suppose I was acting like most people.
I wanted quick results and effortless success. Lets face it, most citizens are lazy. They
don't want to put in any real effort to get what they are after. They don't want to do the
hard work of studying and practicing and experimenting.
Most folks want shortcuts.
Oh
sure, reading a book, using crib-notes, and taking shortcuts, where somebody else has done
the thinking for you, can often bring results, particularly if that "somebody
else" is a top player. Mimicking the
actions of a pro, like a big blue macaw in a cage, will be a big step up from the
unknowledgeable players. However,
parrots/clones are many steps down from people who try to understand the reasons for doing
the right things. Learning to really advance and improve as a DI is about coming to
understand the reasons things work the way they do and in doing experimentation to find
out how to apply that understanding into what works for them. Its not so much the actual playing (although
the playing IS the end result and is the reason for the study/work. See what Im getting at?).
Its
a bit like cheating on a collage aptitude test. Reading
the answers off the smart nerd kids paper might be temporarily convenient but it
wont help you much when your back is up against it and you need to remember how to
answer the question.
***
I
knew I needed to get back to the basics. I
had to study the game and understand what was up and how it all tied together with the DI
thing. So what are some good resources to
understanding the craps table?
There
are several good books on the topic and I purchased a few.
Studying these was helpful and brought some insight into the nature of game
and how the probabilities applied to making craps a negative expectation game.
I
tried searching the internet for more information, but most of what I found there was
lackluster and tended to be fairly superficial in content.
After
working around these various avenues of information, I found that the best resource of
information was back at good ole Dice Setter. I went back to reading the material that is
available there. There are several sections
dedicated to articles written by past and present DI dignitaries. And of course we all know about the boat load of
ideas and advice written in the Mad Professor articles.
I made a pact with myself to read every article. Not just the ones with interesting titles or
picking one or two out here and there to read. No,
I was determined to start at the first article in the list and read on until Id read
through everything there was to read.
Once
Id gotten my way through the reams of information contained in the literal
instruction manual that is Dicesetter.com,
I then started into the forum archives and read through everything I could find there. Man there is some interesting stuff in the old
posts. Seems like almost any subject about
craps and dice influencing you can think of has been discussed in one form or another in
the old posts. You can get a lot of insight
by going back through some of the old threads. There
are hundreds and hundreds of posts in the archives. Youre
bound to read something that sparks an idea or gives you a new perspective.
Of
course, purely reading reams of material is simply not enough. I felt that it was important to try and find ways
to really absorb the information and make it part of my knowledge pool. To do this I began to really study the craps
layout. I came up with drills to memorize
various bets. I didnt go so far as to
create flash-cards, but it was fairly close to that.
What is the correct odds and payout for various levels of place bets? What are the correct dollar amounts of a 3 unit 6
place bet, a 4 unit, a 5 unit. (Easy right, just multiply by 6, but if your not used to
thinking about levels and regression points, it can be a distraction). Do the same thing for the 5&9 and 4&10
place bets. What is the payout for a $5 horn
high yo?. How about a $10 horn high midnight? What
is the vig for these bets? Etc. etc. You get the idea and have probably done much the
same yourself.
Ive
always felt that knowledge is power. I guess
this was instilled in me at an early age. My
folks started talking to me about how important an education was for getting ahead in
life. Even before I was in high school, my
dad was telling me to set my sites on college, That sheepskin is the only way that
youll get ahead. Itll open the
doors so you can be better than me. Maybe
youve heard that same speech from your Pop? Well
Ive come to believe it is true.
Knowledge
is power. Knowledge provides leverage over a
given situation. It is one thing to bet a
Hard 8 because you like the idea of a 10 for 1 payoff.
But it is more powerful to understand that the Expected Value (EV) of the
Hard 8 is -9.09% and the cut that the House takes from your winning (the House Advantage
or HA) of the hard 8 bet is about a dollar for every $10 bet. Or another way to look at this is that the winning
hard 8 is paid $10 for $1 bet. The true odds
are 11 for one. You really won $11, but the
house kept $1, thanks for playing.
Armed
with this knowledge, youre now going to bet the hard 8 and (a) understand what
youre paying for the payoff, (b) you have a skill to toss the hard 8 which changes
the baseline EV or (c) you wish to hedge or enhance a current bet. Anyway, the point being your not just tossing a
buck on the hard 8 with your fingers crossed. Youre
tossing that buck out knowing the consequences of your action with sound reasoning behind
it, (and your fingers crossed).
In
the midst of all this studying, I kept up my practice routine, to the point of putting in
more hours then the spouse cared for or the kids deserved.
I had come to understand that becoming a DI was hard work (at least for me). Success wasnt going to just happen without
some dedication on my part. Dedication
applied to practice and training, as well as dedication in study and understanding.
Next
time well delve into the practice schedule, results tracking, and why the Maddog believes
that probability math and the DI are like alcohol and firearms, the two just dont
mix.
Until
next time, keep your sixes crossed and your rack full. (Part
VI will appear in the next Precision Shooter Newsletter) If you have any comments or ideas for future issues, feel free to email me at ed@dicesetter.com And as always, we are for contributors with a fresh perspective. Know someone who would be interested in receiving future editions of Dice Setter Precision Shooter's Newsletter, Good Luck!
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