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You Watch Your Behind, and Ill Watch Mine It is occasionally
necessary to pose questions to evoke certain thoughts.
Thought-provoking
questions make us look at our inner motivations. They
also make us take a cold, sober and rational look at our actions. We may not always be pleased by what we see. Sometimes I feel a
little like Andy Rooney of CBSs TV show 60 Minutes, because of the way he looks at
everyday things, and sees the irony of our actions. If
he were a craps player, Andy would probably ask in his high-pitched whiny voice:
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Have you ever
noticed that your first bet at the table is usually a losing one?
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Have you ever
noticed that most people will quickly fall behind, and then more slowly make a come-back?
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Have you ever
noticed that at some point during your time at the table, that you almost always
show a profit?
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Have you ever
noticed at how quickly that profit erodes with further play?
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Have you ever
wondered what would happen if you quit at or near the high-profit point on every
session?
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How many of
those sessions where you were ahead, turned out to be losing sessions because you
stayed, played and lost?
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If you promised
yourself that you would leave the table after earning a 15% profit, no
matter what, how many winning sessions would you usually have, versus your current record? Those are all good
questions, so lets address the first two. Last
week, a fellow craps player asked me why bettors rarely jump ahead at the beginning of
play and stay there. He said, I
usually fall in a hole and spend most of my time climbing out. Am I doing something wrong, or am I just unlucky? Shouldn't I start out ahead at least half of the
time? I responded by
saying,
that not grasping this point probably costs more money than any other
single factor. Of course he didnt
believe me, so I told him why it was true. All the bets on a
craps layout are negative-expectation in that they pay out less than their true odds of
occurrence would pay. This is how the casino
establishes the house edge. In
craps, you can try to break the bank by luck alone, but its highly unlikely. Rather, its usually hard-slogging through
grinding play that may show a modest profit, or a loss.
Giving back that modest profit, once it is in your rail, seems like a very
bad idea. However, most people play that way,
and the casino is more than happy to accommodate you.
Im usually satisfied with a modest profit that I can consistently
count on as being MINE! If
there were only random-rollers at the table, you would really have to wait for that good
15-minute roll before a decent profit was in-rack. Your
bankroll and betting methods dictate the required amount of staying power that you need to
endure the losses that a random-roller anticipates, while waiting for the likely, but not
guaranteed wins of a lucky roller. On the
other hand, lets look at what the Precision-Shooter will do in the same set of
circumstances. He uses his brain a
lot more than conventional players, not because he thinks hes smarter, but because
he understands the nature of the game. He
also understands that the maturity and discipline required to generate and to keep decent
profit is probably the most difficult thing to achieve.
The procedures, methods, practices, standards and rules that he sets for
himself are there to protect and build his bankroll, while instilling the patience,
attitude and discipline necessary for long-term survival.
Its not easy, and its a lot more difficult than it sounds. Its not for the faint-of-heart or
weak-of-stomach. Its not for the
under-funded, the chronically-timid, or the over-bloated of ego. The professional
Precision-Shooter will probably be the most conservative bettor at the table, especially
if it is choppy. When it comes his turn to
shoot, hell start out fairly cautiously for the first two or three rolls to be sure
that hes hitting his target with just the right trajectory and speed. Once assured that he is in the groove,
he makes bets which will bring him in substantial early profit. From the point in which all wagers on the table
have been sufficiently covered with collected profit; the smart Precision-Shooter will
then, and only then, press his bets. Again he
will collect more profit before re-raising his bets further. If he
falls behind, the Precision-Shooter doesnt panic.
He will watch his behind, just as much as hell watch
his profit if hes ahead. Kenny
Rodgers was wrong when he sang,
never count your money when youre
standin at the table. If you
dont know where you stand as far as ammunition is concerned, you may run
out of firepower at the critical turning point of the action. That is when the worst casino slaughters takes
place. The
professional closely monitors any losses so that he knows exactly and precisely where he
stands at all times. Even if he cant
get a good read on how to bet on any particular random-roller, he doesnt get overly
concerned. If anything, hell scale back
on all his action until a discernable trend develops whereby he can apply an appropriate
betting method, or he will wait until the dice come to him for his next Precision-Shooting
opportunity. It is at that point when he
feels most comfortable, and where the lions share of his session profit will be
generated. If he hasnt fallen too far
behind by this point, his roll should have a dramatic, but predictable effect on his
revenue-standings. So as Andy Rooney might say, You watch your behind, and Ill watch
mine. Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in
Life. By: The Mad Professor
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