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The "Ground Zero" of Opportunity
What makes these two places SO special? It is called 100-times Odds.
In craps, a player can augment Pass Line, Come, Don't Pass, and Don't
Come bets after a shooter establishes a Point. This is done by taking or laying Odds. Using Odds rather than higher Pass or Don't Pass
wagers actually trims the house edge on these bets.
The house theoretically earns 1.4 cents per dollar on the initial
"flat" wager. This forms the house edge; it results because overall chances of
winning are just under 50% but the payoff is only 1-to-1. The casino has no edge, and
earns nothing on the odds because the payoff mirrors the chances.
With $10 on the Pass Line, 10 x 1.4% theoretically earns the casino 14
cents. If a player takes $20 odds, the house still earns only 14 cents even though a total
of $30 is now in play. Theoretical earnings are fixed by the flat bet, so the overall
house edge on the total amount bet actually drops when the Odds are increased in relation
to the flat bet.
Double odds have long been a standard in Las Vegas.
More and more casinos now offer 3x, 4x, 5x odds. The purpose of the
higher odds offerings, is to attract players with the lower house advantage, and then
hoping to make up for it with increased volume. Odds
of 10x, 20x and 100x can also be occasionally found.
At these levels, house edge is virtually nil.
With $1 flat and $100 odds, at either Sam's Town or Casino Royale, they earn 1 x
1.4 or 1.4 cents on $101. In a "regular" 2x casino with $35 on the Pass Line and
$70 in Odds, the casino earns 35 x 1.4 or 49 cents on $105.
Why do casinos dare offer 100x Odds at craps?
Some people wonder how a place like Casino Royale can manage or afford
to do that. The answer is threefold:
First, few players can afford 100 times their flat bet in odds. If you
are accustomed to $5 on the Pass Line and $10 in odds, then you are hardly a candidate for
$5 on the line and $500 in odds, regardless of the edge. Even if the table minimum is $1,
most bettors are unlikely to plunk down $1 and $100, respectively.
Second, patrons who normally start with $25 or $50 on the line, and take
double or triple odds rarely drop to flat bets of $1 or $5 to get a better edge for the
same outlay. That in most part is due to ego involvement. The other part of that equation
involves Comp levels. Hour upon hour of play
that earns the casino 1.4 cents per bet hardly merits a hot dog in the snack bar; but at
earnings of 49 cents or more per bet, the casino can offer the finest gourmet meals and
luxurious suites. Most people have the need
for ego-satisfaction that comes with a free dinner, regardless of the true cost.
Third, craps players generally bet on several outcomes during a roll. A
few obtain this coverage with Come or Don't Come bets, where they can trim the edge using
odds. Most, however, opt for Place, Buy, or Lay wagers, on which the casino earns from 1.5
to 6.7 cents/dollar. So casinos can write-off line bets as loss leaders, and make their
money from the follow-on wagers. We won't
even discuss the Proposition bets where the house edge can exceed 16%.
In principle, shrewd players exploit opportunities to minimize house
edge, so high odds multiples should have strong appeal. However, in practice, house edge
isn't the only criterion.
Good players also consider how many numbers they want to cover during a
roll; how much exposure is appropriate for their stakes; and how much they value the flexibility of Place, Buy, and Lay relative to
Come and Don't Come bets. They can then trim house edge within these constraints by using
strategies such as shifting money from the flat to the odds portions of Line and Come
bets, and switching from Place, Buy, and Lay to Come and Don't Come wagers. I'll show you what I mean by using my own actual
approach.
My strategy on a $1 or $2 table at Casino Royale when I encounter
another qualified Precision Shooter is:
Here's a payoff comparison between 2x
and 100x odds:
What does this mean in real play?
Well, at an average table with just random-rollers,
the 100x player would have about $120 per hour more left in his rack than his 2x
counterpart. And that includes Come-Out
winners, too! If you or someone else at the
table is a Precision-Shooter, then your opportunities increase dramatically.
My success record at Sam's Town and Casino Royale, with my own shooting
is that 19-out-of-20 hands are profitable. My
track record with other Precision-Shooters is typically profitable 16-out-of-every-20
opportunities. With random-rollers, I am
averaging profit on 9-out-of-20 shooters. Needless
to say, I generally keep my money in my rack when a random-roller initially has a go at the dice.
If it looks like something is developing after five rolls, then I enter the
random game cautiously, and use the odds profits to fuel further bets, all the while
retaining some locked-in profit.
Of course, where you play and how you play is up to you. After all, it is YOUR money. But if you are looking for
MAXIMUM opportunity, then
Ground-Zero is at either Casino Royale or Sam's Town.
Good Luck
& Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life.
By: The Mad Professor |
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