accordance with the informal pact that I made with a group of players who
frequent the small tribal casinos of Northern Michigan and Wisconsin, not
to openly trumpet just how incredibly good the tables are in those
known-only-to-a-few gaming-houses; I’ll keep the details about the
outstanding WI playing-conditions to an absolute minimum, and instead
continue to focus on the technical aspects of Darkside-shooting. However,
next months Don’t-side cross-continent journey takes us into a different
jurisdiction, so we’ll resume the highly-detailed playing-condition
reports that have been a hallmark of this series.
My Don’t-side Dairyland
Driving the considerable
distances between the far-flung casinos of Wisconsin gave me a chance to
fully indulge my eclectic musical tastes for hours at a time. From Aker
Bilk, Toots and the Maytals, Bare-Naked Ladies and Jean-Luc Ponty…to The
Dead Kennedys, Bedouin Soundclash and Angry Samoans…all the way to David
Hickey and John McLaughlin.
The driving distances also let me “blue-sky”
a couple of new Dark-shooting concepts as well as coming up with a few
untraditional applications for some time-honored not-so-new ones.
After all, this journey is largely a cross-continent experiment designed
to push the envelope of what works, what doesn’t work, and
what works best when it come to profitably shooting from the Don’t.
As I’ve mentioned many
times before, there are any number of terrible random betting-methods out
there that are perfectly adaptable to and make perfect sense for
It was with that in mind
that I wanted to conduct some further experimentation with a couple of
traditional methods that have fallen into discredit and disuse now that
Precision-Shooting has become firmly entrenched among well-informed
One of those neglected
betting-methods is the…
3-Point Molly Don't
This is the Darkside
version of the traditional 3-Point Molly where a Do-side player makes a
bet on the Pass-line and then follows it up with two additional Come-bets.
Here on the Darkside,
this method would entail making a Don't Pass bet with Odds, and then two
Don't Come bets, again with Odds.
why would I even consider using such a simple method after experimenting
with and validating far more sophisticated Don’t-side betting-methods?
Well, as I mentioned a
moment ago, this journey is largely an experiment designed to push the
advantage-play envelope of what works, what doesn’t work,
and what works best when it come to profitably shooting from the
Don’t; and I had my suspicions that this particular gaming approach could
hold tremendous profit if given a fair assessment.
I looked back over my gaming stats for the multiple jurisdictions I had
been Dark-shooting in so far on this trip (Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario,
New York, and Michigan); I saw that it was taking less and less time
during the point-cycle portion of my hand to intentionally 7-Out.
is, my roll-stats indicated that once my PL-Point was established while
using my come-out “Game Within A Game” profit-making approach; it
was then taking an average of 2.8 rolls after establishing the PL-Point
before intentionally 7’ing-Out. That 2.8 point-cycle roll-average
includes the final 7-Out toss itself.
In other words, if
I have an average of 1.8 heart-of-the-point-cycle rolls, any Darkside
betting-method that I consider using, has to recognize and
accommodate that aspect.
on that, I figured I could possibly profitably exploit a portion of
those mid-hand non-7 point-cycle rolls by establishing a traveled Don’t
Come bet with Odds before 7’ing-Out, and thereby increase the
average-profitability of each hand.
Additionally, I was aware
that my usual point-cycle dice-set permutations were loaded with tons of
non-box-numbers, and although I would get an instant-paying bonus if a 2
and 3 came up while one of my wagers was still in the D-C box; it also
meant an instant loser for the same wager if an 11 (or 7) showed up
So it was with all of that
in mind that I gave the ?-Point Molly Don’t method some
careful consideration. Obviously, the first thing I had to figure out was
how many “D-C points” per-hand I could reasonably afford to establish.
Here’s what I was dealing
with in terms of 25 days worth of in-casino roll-stats from Northern
Northern Michigan Roll-Stats
Probability of a
After reviewing my most
recent in-casino stats, the first thing I realized was that trying to get
away with a 3-Point Don’t-side Molly (one Don’t Pass bet
plus two Don’t Come wagers) was way too dangerous in terms of the number
of Don’t Come bets that would have been left “stranded” when my
intentional point-cycle 7-Out’s rolled.
In other words, my
intentionally low SRR would work against the idea of establishing
more than one Don’t Come wager during the point-cycle simply because most
attempts to establish an additional DC-Point beyond the first one would
probably not get to “travel” to an actual box-number and instead would
fall victim to my point-cycle 7-Out intentions.
On the other hand, these
roll-stats gave me some encouragement to at least try a 2-Point
Molly Don’t (one Don’t Pass bet with full-Odds plus one Don’t Come
bet backed with full-Odds when it travels to a subsequent box-number).
betting-method is not terribly inventive, however I was convinced that it
might turn out to be reasonably profitable.
Chainsaws and Serving Several Masters
Darkside dice-influencers use a 7-dominant dice-set or some permutation
thereof during their point-cycle, it often throws off a fair number of
craps numbers. For the Darksider who is betting the Don’t-Come, that can
mean an instant win when either the 2 or 3 shows up (and pays 1:1
even-money on your D-C wager), but it can also produce an instant D-C
loser if the Yo-11 or 7-Out rolls.
on those sometimes conflicting and contradictory objectives, I took my
2-Point Molly Don’t to the Wisconsin tables.
Bozo Can Seven-Out"
standing at the
Mohican North Star Casino,
and it was my tenth hand with the dice during a decidedly cold (for
everyone else) session, where it was taking just two or three or rarely
four point-cycle rolls for me to intentionally 7-Out. In fact, it was
taking a similar number of rolls for every other shooter to
UNINTENTIONALLY do the same thing.
Yet I was
the only Darksider among them
There was a
Ted Nugent-looking wannabe who was getting madder and madder with each
hand-ending roll, especially when it was my intentional 7-Out that
was plunging his bankroll deeper and deeper into the frigid depths. After
my most recent 7-Out win (and his corresponding loss), he said
dismissively, "Any bozo can Seven-Out." My response was, “If
that is the case, then why not MAKE money on it instead of LOSING money
like you are doing? Maybe you should have said, “Any bozo can LOSE money
to a 7-Out…but it takes a little common sense to MAKE money from it”.
laps around the table continued to knock off every single Passline-bet
save and except for a few occasional PL Come-Out winners. It was also
enough to totally banish all but three die-hard Rightsiders who themselves
were down to the skeletal remains of their originally fat and sassy
finally came down to just me and one other player, he intrepidly said he
was going to join me on the Don’t Pass. I asked him why he waited so
long, and he said that he “had to play with these other fellas pretty
much every session, and didn’t want to make them feel like he didn’t
believe in them.” My only reply was that “the price of trying to
make everyone else at the table happy sure seemed expensive tonight”.
He nodded with resigned acknowledgement.
get into the results of my
experiment, I want to share the briefest of summaries about the Wisconsin
casinos that I played in during this leg of my Darkside journey:
in Keshena, about half-an-hour north of Green Bay, boasts
one 16-foot table and one stand-up 10-player/one-dealer tub table.
Bet-minimums are usually $2 or $3 with 2x-Odds and $3-minimum Place-bets
during the week. Those minimums rise to $5 on the weekend. The casinos
sweat-tolerance bet-threshold for Rightsiders seems to be just over the
$50/$60 per Place-bet mark, so Steep 5:1 Regressions like $110-Inside
regressed to $22-Inside shouldn’t pose any sort of a problem. For
Darksiders, the sweat-tolerance bet-threshold is anything over the $150 in
100-room Menominee Hotel is a very easy comp for players who spread wagers
similar to those mentioned above. Comp requirements for food at the
Forest Grill restaurant is obviously quite a bit lower.
Mohican North Star Casino
in Bowler, WI (smack in the middle of hunt-country) has a
huge 20-player barge-table that is set at either $3 (weekdays) or $5
(weekends) with 2x-Odds. Unfortunately it’s only open from 4 p.m. to 2
a.m. This table takes a little bit of getting used to; with a backwall
that deadens any impacts quite effectively.
Mohican’s North Star Café is decidedly down-market (way down), and
the casino does not have its own hotel; however there are a couple of
Comfort Inn-type motels nearby. Though the Star Club players card
at first seems useless with meager food and accommodation offerings; their
generous cash-vouchers and match-plays more than make up for that
Oneida Bingo & Casino
is across from
Austin Straubel Airport
and is the cleanest casino that I encountered on the Michigan/Wisconsin
leg of this trip. They have two very bouncy 12-foot $5 minimum, $200
max-bet, 3x-Odds craps tables that open at
12-noon and operate through to 4 a.m. However, during the
week, expect only one of their tables to be open (that is a
mid-week theme you’ll see repeated often in Wisconsin casinos).
The attached Radisson Inn is in much better condition than I expected, and
food at both the Standing Stone buffet and Shenandoah Restaurant is
excellent. Food and room comps are exceptionally easy to obtain.
in Carter, Wisconsin has one small, somewhat bouncy,
stand-up tub table that opens at 10 a.m. and one large microfiber
16-footer that is often open only on the weekend. Minimum-bets are $3 on
weekdays and $5 on the weekend. Both tables offer 2x-Odds with a $200
maximum flat-bet. Standard rules about both dice having to hit the
backwall is scrupulously enforced, but not in an overbearing or anti-dicesetter
sort of way. I spent three solid days on their tub table. When I switched
over to the big 16-footer on the weekend, it took some radical
re-acclimation. Food choices are limited but passable.
St. Croix Casino & Hotel
(also known as “Turtle Lake Casino” to the locals) is located in
Lake (about 90 minutes north of Minneapolis/St. Paul and the same distance
from Eau Claire); and has two 14-footers and one 16-foot, $5-min/$500-max
5x-Odds tables with at least one layout open 24/7/365…although during the
slowest times, you’ll often see just half-a-table in operation.
“St. C” is the biggest casino in Wisconsin and draws crowds like
flies to honey. High-quality food and comfortable accommodation are the
hallmark of this busy casino.
Hole In the
in Danbury is run by the same Turtle Creek band as St. Croix Casino, and
only offers craps four days a week (Thursday through Sunday). They open
the table at 6 p.m. on Thursdays, 4 p.m. on Fridays, and 2 p.m. on
Saturday and Sunday. Save for a few savvy players, the table sees very
little action as soon as it opens. That means the first hour or two of
play offers plenty of shooting opportunities. With a $3 minimum/$200
maximum bet, it is easy to work your victory-fueled wagers up to the
table-max in pretty short order.
Change Café offers a wide range of decent food while their Hole in the
Wall Hotel (it’s really a small 46-room motel) is plain but
comfortable. Comps initially lag behind your actual table-play by several
hours if not half-a-day. Once their computer system catches up, freebies
are easily forthcoming.
Oreilles (LCO) Casino-Lodge
Hayward offers craps only on Wednesday through Sunday starting at 6 p.m.
and running through to 2 a.m. on weekdays and 4 a.m. on weekends. That’s
the downside to playing at LCO. The upside is the excellent table and the
very accommodating staff who appreciate even the meagerest of tokes.
Since I showed up on a Tuesday, I spent the better portion of an entire
non-playing day languishing in and around their cedar sauna. Table-rates
are set at the Wisconsin-standard of $3-minimum/$200-maximum.
There are nine other
casinos in Wisconsin that currently DO NOT offer craps, but a few more MAY
offer it in the not-too-distant future. They include
Grindstone Creek Casino
Whitetail Crossing Casino
Mole Lake/Regency Casino
Bad River Lodge Casino
Ho Chunk Casino
Isle Vista Casino
Lake of the Torches Resort
Lac du Flambeau, and
Summary of My 2-Point
Molly Don’t Experiment
summary of how I did with this everything-that’s-old-is-new-again
Wisconsin-leg Duration: 12
Total Playing Time: 50.3 hours
This includes actual
at-the-table time only. On crowded tables where I kept my spot
“reserved”, I often used the between-shooting-opportunity interludes to
enjoy a meal or go for a walk.
Type of Bets:
$25 Don't Pass w/Full Odds, Plus one $25 Don't Come w/Full odds
Bet-making Notes: If an “instant”
Don’t-Come winner (2 or 3) or loser (11 or 7) was
thrown, did not replace the bet during that
hand. This summary includes the
that pertain only to this experiment, and do not
reflect any C-O or D-P income.
Total Hands thrown: 143
Instant Don’t-Come Winners: 21 -
This is the number of instant even-money D-C winners that were paid if a
craps-2 or craps-3 rolled.
They represented 14.68% of my D-C bet “attempts” which is probably
attributable to the high preponderance of on-axis 2’s and 3’s with the
horn-heavy point-cycle dice-sets that I use.
Random-expectancy for the combined craps-2 and craps-3 is 8.33%.
Instant Don’t Come
Losers: 13 bets lost to Yo-11 - 51 bets lost to 7-Out DP winners.
This is the number of instant D-C losers that were lost when a Yo-11 or
The Yo-11 outcomes represented 9.09% of my D-C bet “attempts”.
Random-expectancy for the Yo-11 is 5.55%
The 7-Out D-C losers (but a winner for my DP line-bets) represented 35.66%
of my D-C bet “attempts”. Random-expectancy for the 7 is 16.66%.
Instant D-C Outcome Ratio: 64 instant losers vs. 21 instant
ratio or of instant D-C losers-to-instant-DC-winners.
Instant Win from D-C: 21 wins x even-money $25 D-C payout =
This is the total revenue earned
from instant D-C winners when a craps-2 or craps-3
Instant Loss from D-C: 64 losses x $25 D-C wager =
This is the
total money lost to instant D-C losers when a Yo-11 or 7-Out DP-winner
Net-Loss Directly From D-C:
This is the overall net-loss from
those instant D-C winners and losers.
Traveled D-C wagers: 58
This is the number of bets that survived the D-C and subsequently went
behind a box-number. They represent just 40.56% of D-C “attempts”,
and at first blush looks pretty bleak in terms of the prospects for this
experiment to emerge on the positive side of the dice-influencing ledger.
Traveled D-C Wager Wins: 51
Traveled D-C Wager Losses: 7
Traveled D-C Revenue:
flat-bet portion of a traveled D-C bet pays even-money.
of traveled D-C bet paid an average of $96. In
Wisconsin, max-permissible Odds vary.
In each WI casino, I pushed the inverse allowable odds as
high as the box or pit
personnel would allow.
The average traveled D-C w/Odds winner paid $121. 51
D-C winners paid $6171.
$25 flat-bet portion of a traveled D-C bet plus $150 in average inversed
(see above notes)
equates to $175 per loss. 7 traveled D-C losers cost (-$1225).
Net-win from traveled D-C w/Odds
Revenue From D-C: $4946 from traveled D-C w/Odds minus $1075 from
losses = $3871
Total Hands thrown: 143
Average D-C Profit/Hand: $27.07
glance this does not look like a very good betting-method.
other hand, the net-revenue from the traveled D-C wagers when backed
with Odds, earned a 48% return-on-investment ($4946 profit on
approximately $10,150 in traveled D-C w/Odds wagers).
the low $27-per-hand revenue-stream was the fact that Wisconsin’s casinos
have a modest flat-bet max of $200, however their bet-tolerance
comfort-level is much, much lower than that. In fact, I would
vigorously counsel advantage-play Darksiders NOT to exceed
the DP or DC bet amounts that I used during this experiment.
If I had
2-Point Don’t-side Molly
in a more bet-tolerant jurisdiction (or one where higher
Lay-odds were permitted); then I would have definitely raised my base D-C
bet up to at least $50, if not $100 (along with the correspondingly higher
Frankly though, the
outcome of this two-week experiment was quite enlightening insofar as
showing how a high Horn-content point-cycle dice-set when combined with an
intentionally low point-cycle Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio can make it quite
difficult to make decent money off of Don’t Come wagers.
what this research did show was that there is at least one
traditional betting-method that cannot be completely dismissed out of hand
when it comes to providing at least a little bit of additional per-hand
profit from a frequently overlooked D-C source.
Good Luck & Good
Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
The Mad Professor
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