I made an informal pact with a group of
players who frequent the small tribal casinos of Northern Michigan
and Wisconsin. We agreed not to openly
trumpet just how incredibly good the tables are in these
known-only-to-a-few gaming-houses, if everyone in the group agrees to
strictly keep their betting-levels within the
tight win-tolerance comfort-level confines
that these Indian casinos operate under.
As such, I’ll keep the details about the
outstanding playing-conditions in Northern Michigan and Wisconsin
to an absolute minimum, and instead focus on
the technical aspects of how and why Darkside-shooting
can be incredibly lucrative with less
effort and less actual “influence” to accomplish the same or
better
profit-objectives than Rightside-shooting
requires.
Your Source of Influence Is Also Your Source of
Profit
At its most elemental
source, dice-influencing is all about affecting the number of 7’s versus
the number
of other non-7
outcomes that you produce.
Ø The
Rightside-shooter wants to produce less 7’s and more
non-7 outcomes during his point-cycle;
thereby putting his
Do-side bets into positive-expectation territory.
Ø On the
flip-side, the Darkside-shooter wants to produce more 7’s and
less of the other numbers
during his point-cycle;
thereby putting his Don’t-side wagers into positive-expectation territory.
The Darksider’s contrarian
perspective actually has a pretty strong advantage-play rationale:
Ø
If you can
influence the dice at all; then why not influence the one number
that is already
dominant
over all the other possible outcomes?
Ø
The 7 is the
only number that fits that requirement.
Ø
The 7
requires the least amount of influence to increase its
appearance-rate the most.
Ø
Again, no
other single number fits that requirement better; so why not put it to
work for you
instead of continually
fighting against it?
Darkside-shooting can be the quickest and most efficient route to
consistent advantage-play profit.
Ø
It is far
easier and much quicker to become proficient and profitable as a Darkside-shooter
than
it is to get everything
right and steadily advantageous as a Rightsider.
Shooting FOR The Seven
As an
advantage-player, you always have to be asking yourself, "Where
will my betting-dollars do the most
good and
provide the best return-on-investment?"
In many cases, especially for the modestly skilled dice-influencer, the
answer invariably comes back to
Darkside-shooting.
Ø
As a
Rightsider, we try to broaden and increase our Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR)
when
we are shooting.
Ø
As a Darksider, we try to narrow and decrease our
Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR).
Ø
As our Darkside SRR decreases, our chances of
intentionally rolling a hand-winning 7-Out
during the
point-cycle, increases.
Ø
As a Rightsider, we use certain dice-sets to stave off
the 7 during our point-cycle (post
Come-Out) shooting.
Ø
Meanwhile, the Darksider usually uses a different dice-set
that assists his effort to hasten
the appearance
of a 7-Out winner.
A dice-influencer who has
already validated his level of Precision-Shooting skill as a Rightsider,
can easily
transpose and convert that
skill into Darkside shooting.
This equivalency chart
shows how easily 7-avoidance is convertible into a
7-supportive scenario:
Rightside-to-Darkside Skill Conversion |
Rightside SRR-Rate |
SRR
6 |
SRR
6.5 |
SRR
7 |
SRR
7.5 |
SRR
8 |
Darkside SRR-Rate |
SRR
6 |
SRR
5.5 |
SRR
5 |
SRR
4.5 |
SRR
4 |
The skill that it takes to produce a Do-side
SRR of 1:8 is exactly the same skill that it takes to produce a Don’t-side
SRR of 1:4.
Let me express this
another way:
Ø
If you have
a Rightside point-cycle SRR of 1:8 and you still find it difficult to
avoid the 7; imagine
what it would be like if
you took that exact same toss-dynamics influencing skill to
intentionally
produce more 7’s…to the
tune of an average of nine 7’s per thirty-six outcomes.
The upside is that the Don’t-sider only has to
influence ONE number (the 7) to get to the honey-pot of profit,
while the Do-sider with multiple bets on the layout usually has to
influence several numbers and often has
to hit them multiple times just to
break-even.
Take a look
at how the number of 7’s increases as we use our dice-influencing skills
to intentionally lower
our
Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio:
Sevens
Appearance Rate |
Appearance Ratio |
SRR
6 |
SRR
5.5 |
SRR
5 |
SRR
4.5 |
SRR
4 |
Probability
per-roll |
16.67% |
18.19% |
20.00% |
22.22% |
25.00% |
7’s-per-36 |
6 |
6.55 |
7.2 |
8 |
9 |
While
Rightsiders fear the point-cycle 7; Darksiders embrace it. If you think
the 7 has a dominance against
a
random-roller at a per-roll expectancy of 16.67%; imagine the impact it
would have if you converted your
Rightside
SRR-8 shooting into a one-7-in-every-four-rolls (25%) SRR-4
Dark-betting juggernaut.
Ø
The Darkside
possibilities of taking the random appearance-rate from six 7’s and
increasing it
by 50% to nine 7’s
looks downright mouth-watering from an advantage-players perspective.
Ø
When a
Precision-Shooter uses his dice-influencing skills to encourage and
increase the
occurrence-rate of the 7;
he is taking an already dominant number and making it even
better.
To my mind, if you take
the single strongest number on a pair of dice and add just a little bit of
positive
influence to it; then you
are working with the strongest bet on the table, bar none.
Roll-Duration Accretion-Rate
On the Rightside, our SRR-rate
determines our per-roll probability of rolling a 7-out. Even though our
roll-to-roll skill remains
fairly constant, the ever-present 7 has a direct and over-riding
effect on our
actual roll-duration.
Ø
We measure
the cumulative effect of the 7 as the roll-duration “decay-rate”.
Ø
As
Rightsiders, we can use that decay-rate to determine the optimal
bet-reduction trigger point
for regression-style
wagering where we reduce our large initial bet down to a smaller one,
thereby
locking up a profit.
Ø
Likewise as
Darkside-shooters, our chances of throwing a 7-Out also INCREASES
as our
point-cycle roll
progresses…and for us, that’s a good thing. In this case, the
decay-rate
actually works in our favor, so the
more we can help it along, the better.
Ø
As much as
Rightsiders want to avoid the 7 during the point-cycle portion of
their hand;
Darksiders want to
hasten and encourage it’s appearance.
When viewed on a
per-roll basis, the random-rolling SRR-6 shooter has a 16.67% chance
of a 7 showing
up during any given single
roll. However, we also know that the domination of the 7 is such that
long hands
are the exception rather
than the rule. That’s why long rolls are so darn memorable.
On a per-roll basis, the
chance of a random 7 showing up remains locked in at exactly 16.67% on
each
and every roll; however
the CUMULATIVE roll-ending effect of such a dominant number
means that for
each subsequent roll when
it doesn’t show up…the chances of it showing up increases
with each and
every subsequent toss
after that during a given hand.
This approach has nothing to do with
due-number theory and everything to do with the math of the game,
the law of large-numbers, the cumulative
probability of occurrence and the sheer power of one dominant
number over all of the other possible
outcomes.
It takes very little influence to
intentionally tip the 7 more in your favor…and in doing so we can derive
all
kinds of profit from it.
Whether you like it or not, and regardless of
your SRR-rate, your chances
of hitting a 7-Out increases with every
subsequent point-cycle roll.
Again, your per-roll chances of throwing a 7
is dictated by your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio and that per-roll
number remains perfectly static;
however the cumulative effect of a string of non-7 outcomes, means
that the accretive (accumulating) rate of a 7
occurring, significantly increases with every subsequent
non-7 outcome.
For example, if you graphed your point-cycle
roll duration, you would see that the number of your hands
that last 3-rolls outnumber the ones that last
10-rolls, but the 10-roll hands far outpace the ones that last
30-rolls, however the 30-roll hands far
outpace your point-cycle hands that last for 100-rolls. That in a
nutshell, is HOW the cumulative power of the over-riding 7 affects
roll-duration regardless of your SRR-rate.
As a result, the Rightsiders who recognize how
certain betting-methods can profitably harness the power of even the most
modest dice-influencing skills despite the SRR-indicative
roll-duration decay-rate (as
chronicled in the ongoing 18-part
Regression Avoids Depression series) learn to profitably live
with it;
while Do-siders who don’t recognize or harness
it, continually moan about the disconnect between their
shooting-skill and their retained profit.
In that same vein, Darksiders who recognize
and properly harness their dice-influencing proficiency love
how the cumulative accretion of expected 7’s
turns the SRR-indicative roll-duration decay-rate into an
undisputable money-maker.
A Darkside dice-influencer simply
forces that already-dominant number to become
EVEN MORE DOMINANT; and as a
consequence, profitably exploitable 7-Out
results follow.
So instead of negatively looking at this as a
roll-duration “decay-rate” as is done on the Rightside; we as Darksiders,
more appropriately look at our intentional sub-random performance as an
“accretion-rate”
where our chances of rolling a 7-Out during
the point-cycle mathematically accumulates on each
subsequent non-7 outcome.
Again, the per-roll chances of rolling a 7 is
indicated by our SRR-rate, and that percentage-of-occurrence stays steady
on any given roll that you make. However, the
totality of a 7-Out is measurable over the entire expected duration
of a dice-influenced hand and as you’ll see in a moment, that number is
FAR from static.
Take a look at the already validated
accumulative effect that the 7 has on a random shooters roll-duration
and compare it to how the 7’s appearance rate
is incrementally accelerated by even the most modest of positive
dice-influencing inducement:
Darkside-Shooting
Sevens Accretion-Rate |
Point-Cycle
Roll Count |
SRR
6 |
SRR
5.5 |
SRR
5 |
SRR
4.5 |
SRR
4 |
1 |
16.67% |
18.19% |
20.00% |
22.22% |
25.00% |
2 |
19.45% |
21.50% |
24.00% |
27.16% |
31.25% |
3 |
22.69% |
25.41% |
28.80% |
31.19% |
39.06% |
4 |
26.47% |
30.03% |
34.56% |
40.57% |
48.83% |
5 |
30.89% |
35.49% |
41.47% |
49.58% |
61.04% |
6 |
36.04% |
41.95% |
49.77% |
60.60% |
76.30% |
7 |
42.04% |
49.58% |
59.72% |
74.06% |
95.37% |
8 |
49.05% |
58.60% |
71.66% |
90.52% |
119.21%
overlay |
9 |
57.23% |
69.26% |
86.00% |
110.63%
overlay |
- |
10 |
66.77% |
81.86% |
103.20%
overlay |
- |
- |
11 |
77.90% |
96.75% |
- |
- |
- |
12 |
90.88% |
114.35%
overlay |
- |
- |
- |
13 |
106.03%
overlay |
- |
- |
- |
- |
As each rolls proceeds without a 7, there is
less and less chance that the 7 will stay away. As a Rightsider that
isn’t so great, but as a Darkside-shooter, that can be a VERY lucrative
thing.
As I said, though the per-roll chance of a 7
showing up always remains exactly the same at 1-in-6 (16.67%) for a
random-roller or 1-in-4 (25%) for a SRR-4 shooter; the accumulative
effect that it has on roll-duration is absolutely unmistakable.
The profitable Darkside exploitation of these
incrementally accelerated expected-7’s by even the most modest
dice-influencing efforts is something that an ever-increasing number of
advantage-players no
longer ignore.
Simply stated…
Cumulative probability outweighs individual
roll-expectation.
“We’re Not In
Detroit Anymore Toto”
Once you
venture out of the urban milieu of Motown, the softer, bucolic side of
Michigan prevails. Most
of this
state’s casinos are north of Detroit…and some of them are waaaaay
north, to the tune of
~400 miles
north of Windsor, Ontario, Canada. That approximates the
distance between Dallas and
Jackson, MS,
or Los Angeles to San Francisco, or Knoxville to Charleston, SC, or Omaha
to St. Paul.
Although
some substantial driving distances are involved when traveling between all
of these far-flung
gaming-outposts; to my mind, the effort is definitely worth it. A tour of
all thirteen MI casinos (where
craps is
currently available) involves a bit of logistical planning. I temporarily
suspended my cross-
continent
Darkside journey after the Detroit/Windsor leg in order to take care of
Ms. MP and to
better
organize the Michigan, Wisconsin, and Manitoba segment.
Without
having to deal with the Eight Mile Road BLT-posse (“born losers with a
twenty”) that populate the
Detroit
casinos during certain hours; the Indian casinos of Michigan can focus on
offering outstanding
customer
service and equally outstanding dice-shooting conditions. I promised not
to say that it’s a
dice-influencers paradise…so I won’t.
Though the
upper betting-limits at these Native casinos may not always be as high as
one might want;
the more
frequent shooting opportunities afforded by the dealers not having to book
anywhere from 30 to
110 hop-bets
before each and every roll of the dice (as they frequently do in Detroit)
definitely makes
a huge
difference in game-pace and shooting rhythm. Added to the fact that their
tables are generally
uncrowded at
most hours, I had plenty of shooting opportunities on an
around-the-clock basis.
Here’s the
Briefest of Brief Summaries of the Non-Detroit
Michigan Casinos:
Leelanua Sands Resort
and
Turtle Bay Casino
in the middle of the Traverse Bay area are both operated
by the Grand
Traverse Band. The table at
TBC
may not be open until 12-noon during the week, but hums
24
hours-a-day on the weekend.
LSR
has one particular table that rivals some of the most consistently
exploitable
layouts that I’ve ever played on.
Ojibway Casino
Marquette
and
Ojibway Casino Baraga
both offer 5x odds with a $2-$200 limit. The
crews are
not as skilled as some of the other casinos in MI, but their good attitude
more than makes up
for any
shortcomings. All I’m going to say about their tables is that I LOVE
them!
Bay Mills Casino
in Brimley is right on the waterfront and offers a $5 game with 10x-Odds,
however, your
max flat-bet
is topped out at $100. Comps are fairly easy to get for low-to-medium
green-chip action, and
causes
absolutely no heat or looks of concern from the pit. There aren’t any
high-end restaurants in Bay
Mills, but
their lower-end Diner, Grille and Café provide passable offerings.
Chip-In Island Resort
in Harris has two craps tables (one stand-up tub and one 16-footer) that
are usually
set at the
$2, $3, or $5-minimum/3x-Odds/$200 max-bet mark, but they only open around
11 am during
the week.
Their Island Club players card offers the usual food, lodging and
entertainment comps, along
with
same-day free gas comps and extremely generous mail-out cash vouchers.
Little
River Casino
in Manistee has a $5 to $500 game going most of the time, although if one
or both
of their two
14-foot tables are standing empty, they will often lower one to $2 or $3
if you ask nicely. The
free-Odds
situation at
LRC
is a little quirky. You are allowed 5x-Odds on flat PL-wagers up to
$100. Past
that point,
your free-odds are limited to 2x. They have a palatable enough range of
food offerings that are
all compable
for mid-level play, as is their lodge-style hotel.
Soaring
Eagle Casino
in Mount Pleasant has an exquisite mini-tub table that has to be seen and
played
to be
believed. I encountered no heat, no concern, and no problem in using this
table numerous times as
my personal
cash-register during the three-and-a-half-weeks that I spent on the
Michigan leg of my
Darkside
journey.
Victories Casino
in Petoskey has one table, and although the casino itself opens at 8 a.m.,
the table
doesn't
usually open until a little later. Their Bakinaage Players Club is more
generous than I ever
anticipated,
and their dining options, although severely limited in scope, are
outstanding in quality.
I found the
table was initially a little tough to get dialed in on. To be fair
though, I had spent the
better part
of a morning man-handling a new set of Scorpion 345/60’s for the LM002, so
transitioning to lightly and accurately throwing the dice took a little
bit of re-acclimation.
Kewadin
Sault Ste. Marie
requires a surprisingly low play-threshold to snag a run-of-the-mill hotel
room
comp, while
sustained green-chip play will bump you up to a Jacuzzi suite. Their
Northern Rewards
players card
is of the cross-property type, which means you can use the comps you’ve
earned at
one
Kewadin
casino, at any of their other four properties.
Kewadin
St. Ignace
offers 10x-Odds just like the other three Kewadin casinos
that offer craps (the two
Kewadin
casinos in Christmas and Hessel do not currently offer craps).
Their almost famous Lakefront
Inn may not
look like anything from the outside, but the actual guest-rooms that
overlook the water are
downright
inspirational, with stone fireplaces, walk-out balconies, and views that
stir the soul.
Please Note…
The three
Kewadin casinos that I played at all offer exceptional shooting
conditions, and as with the other
Indian
casinos of Michigan, there is absolutely no heat or pit-concern as long as
your
betting-levels are
kept within reason
(green-chip play with $25 PL w/10x-Odds and up to $330-Inside or
$390/$405-Across
for Rightsiders, and $75
DP w/12x-Odds for Darksiders); and within their win-tolerance
comfort-level
(<$1500 per session/no
more than one max-win session per day, or <$500 per session/no more than
three sessions per day).
Kewadin
Manistique
does not have its own hotel, but there are four or five
nearby motels that are
compable
through your casino host; however be forewarned that we are talking about
Comfort Inn/Budget
Inn type
accommodation. The
Kewadin
tribe is also the owner/operator group of Greektown Casino
in Detroit.
Lac
Vieux Desert Casino
in Watersmeet has a couple of low-limit tables that are almost always open
24 hours a
day during the tourist season, but whose operating hours fluctuate in the
off-season.
LVD
has very
limited weekday food choices. You can expect a steady stream of
mail-out room comps for
their
Dancing Eagles Resort (which is really just a tarted-up motel) for minimal
play.
There are
another dozen or so casinos in Michigan that DO NOT currently offer
craps, and therefore I
didn’t visit
any of them during ~25 days of Michigan play.
Long-Table to
Short-Table to Long-Table Shooting Adjustments
The number of excellent tub-tables in Northern
Michigan is slowly increasing, while the number of tubs,
mini-tables and sit-down Crapshooter™ layouts
in Las Vegas is quickly shrinking.
My
fifteen-part Mini-Table Craps Tour With The Vegas Ghost
chronicles all of those LV tables both
past and
present. More importantly though, that series is filled with tips,
pointers and all kinds of effective
advice about
getting the best dice-influencing results possible from small tables.
It covers
everything from dicesetting even where it is strictly prohibited, to
betting in proportion to each
casinos
bet-tolerance and win-tolerance limits, how to adjust your toss-dynamics
to best suit short
throwing
distances, and much, much more. However, the one thing that it doesn’t
include, is how to
rapidly
adjust from shooting at short tables and then immediately switching to
long tables and vice
versa.
Since a
growing number of North MI casinos have a mini-tub and a longer 12,
14, or 16-foot table too,
you never
know in advance which one will be open and which one won’t. Now you can
call the table-games
pit in
advance like I do to find out which is available at various times of the
day or night, but I also
recommend
practicing and preparing your shooting for both mini and maxi sizes
just in case the situation
changes in
the interim, as it often does.
I recommend
doing some pre-casino warm-ups by shooting from the most likely
tub-distances of 3.00,
3.75 and
4.50-feet, and then switching to normal-tables distances of 6.00, 6.75,
and 7.50-feet.
Ø
Once I dial my shooting in from the shorter distances, I
like to throw perhaps a dozen or so
more tosses,
and then switch over to the longer expanse.
Ø
Then, when I’ve got my shooting on track for the longer
distances, I switch back to the
shorter
ones.
Ø
By swapping throwing-distances back and forth, I am able to
improve and transfer my toss-
dynamic
malleability to various table lengths much more easily, especially when I
walk into
a casino that has two
very distinct table-sizes.
Ø
Equally, this warm-up is a tremendous help when your
favorite table-position is not available.
You can
develop this to the point where no table-position is “out of
position” for you or your skills.
Ø
This exercise combines physical adaptability with
psychological conditioning. The more
confidence
you have in various-length throws, the better able you are to concentrate
on making
each throw
the best throw that it can be.
Ø
Increased skill-validated shooting-confidence means
increased dice-influenced profits.
Darksiders who recognize and properly harness
their dice-influencing proficiency love how the cumulative
accretion of expected 7’s turns the SRR-indicative
roll-duration decay-rate into an undisputable money-
maker; and the more table-size lengths that
you can do that at, the more you’ll be able to take advantage
of it.
By mildly influencing the
already-dominant 7, the Darkside-shooter takes a strong number and makes
it
even stronger. By fully
recognizing the “accretion-rate” (where his chances of rolling a 7-Out
during the
point-cycle
mathematically accumulates on each subsequent non-7 outcome); he puts
himself into a
more accessible position
to take profitable advantage of his D-I skills than a comparably
proficient
Rightsider can.
We’ll explore this
phenomenon quite a bit more as we motor into the dairyland state of
Wisconsin.
I hope you’ll join me for
that.
Good Luck & Good
Skill at the Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
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