
Regression Avoids
Depression With
the use of Initial Steep Regressions, a novice diceinfluencer can reap larger and much
more consistent monetary rewards from the same skilllevel and the same
betlevel than flatbetting or rampedup betpressing can. Equally,
an advanced player can extract a steadier and even higher income from his current
skillset on a much more predictable basis by simply utilizing the widest, most frequently
occurring sector of his rollduration range. How
does that work?
Ø
Once
a players pointcycle rollduration extends past the Optimal Regression point for
an initially positiveexpectation bet, the expectedvalue (EV) quickly falls into
negativeexpectation territory. That is, the
wager is now expected to bring in less money than its facevalue.
Ø
The
higher a players SRRrate is, the less problematic negative volatility becomes. Therefore,
the higher his EV on a given bet; the longer negative volatility is held at bay...and
obviously, the more profitable each of his properly wagered hands become.
Ø
At
the same time; the higher his EV is on a given bet, the fewer rolldecisions he will need
for the bet to become netpositive, and therefore, the less volatility each of his hands
will have to endure.
Ø
ISR's
are critically important for diceinfluencers who have already validated their skill
but haven't yet been able to translate that into any kind of reliably consistent profit. Steep
Regressions Are A ForceMultiplier Initial
Steep Regressions effectually leverage the Expected Value and realizable profit
that a player can earn on every validated wager that he makes. In
other words,
ISR's
let an SRR7 shooter make the profit that most SRR9 or SRR10 flatbetting or
aggressivepressing shooters only FANTASIZE about.
Ø
By
profitably exploiting more of his rolls from the fattest (most frequently occurring)
portion of his rollduration expectancycurve; the ISRuser can make much more money
with much less risk and much lower volatility than a better shooter who uses flat or
aggressively pressed wagers can.
Ø
The
use of Steep Regressions for SRR7 through SRR10 shooters is where the MOST
diceinfluencing profit can be found; yet most players fail to seize it…or even
recognize that it’s possible to extract that much profit from their current
skillrate.
Ø
Each
diceset produces its own array of highEV, lowEV, and negativeEV wagers. Wagering on a few highEV bets will almost always
be more profitable than spreading the same amount of money across a wider range of
lowerEV wagers. To
accomplish that however, you have to wager your money in a manner which utilizes only your
strongestedge bets, and disregards or at least discounts all of the rest. Once
you’ve done that; Steep Regressions leverage your current skills and multiply the
force by which your diceinfluencing abilities are profitably fulfilled and effectuated. ISR’s
simply work better and are more effective at extracting additional profit out of the SAME
skilllevel than any other types of betmanagement. Putting
the 4 and 10 Placebet Under a Microscope
So
far we’ve looked at how well ISR’s work on several globaltype bets that cover
four numbers (Inside, Outside, and Even), six numbers (Across) and
even ten numbers (Iron Cross) at the same time.
However, let’s say you are just considering Placebetting your two most
dominant SignatureNumbers like the 4 and 10.
Ø
In
random expectancy, we’ll see three 4’s and three 10’s against six
appearances of the 7, which equates to six appearances of the 4 and 10 for every six
appearances for the 7.
Ø
That
ratio of 6:6 means a randomroller can expect a 4’sand10’sto7’s
appearancerate of 1:1.
Ø
As
you know, that evenratio is not enough to make up for the cost of a 7out which would
wipe out both Placebet wagers; and even though a winning hit pays 9:5 as a straight
Placebet and 2:1 as a buybet…it is still not enough to overcome the
houseedge.
Ø
As
a result, randomrollers stay on the negativeside of the expectation curve, while
diceinfluencers cross over into positive territory on a regular basis. Why
ISR’s Work So Well With Simple 4 & 10 Placebets
We
know that for a randomroller, the 7 is expected to show up once every six rolls. With a 16.67% appearancerate, that DOES NOT
mean that the 7 will show up like clockwork on each and every sixth roll. Instead, it means that its appearancerate will
average out to once every six rolls. That’s
the nature of the beast that we call volatility.
As
diceinfluencers we know that the further we move our shooting away from the
randomlyexpected SRR6, the better we are at keeping the 7 at bay. In
a random outcome game, the 4 and 10 constitute 16.67% of all possible
outcomes which is the same occurrencerate of the 7.
There
are:
Ø
Three
ways to make a 4, and a Placebet pays 9:5. When
the placebet is “bought”, it pays 2:1, less commission.
Ø
Three
ways to make a 10, and a Placebet pays 9:5. When
the placebet is “bought”, it pays 2:1, less commission.
As
with every Rightside bet, how often the 7 appears is dictated by your skillbased
SRRrate.
Although
the sheer number of 4’s and 10’s doesn’t rise that dramatically when your
shootingskill improves; the real difference comes in the reduced appearancerate of
handending 7’s. In the chart above, an
SRR9 shooter only generates slightly more 4’s and 10’s than a randomroller
does (6.4 versus 6.0). However, since his
diceinfluencing produces a lower overall sevensappearancerate, his actual
4’sand10’sto7’s ratio improves by 60% (from 1.0 to 1.6). That
is the kind of a healthy increase that a savvy advantageplayer simply cannot ignore. Anatomy
Of a 4
& 10
Placebet
The
primary advantageplay ruleofthumb is: The
fewer advantaged bets that you spread your money over, the fewer winning hits you will
need in order to produce a netprofit.
Placebetting
the 4 and 10 only requires two winning hits to repay your initial basebet before breaking
into netprofitability. As
a flatbetting advantageplayer, two hits on either the 4 and 10 seems like a
modest goal; but you have to maintain perspective and think about all of the times when
you’ve only hit one of them. If
you add up all of those frustrating onerollshortofaprofit losses; you’ll
quickly see that the number of winning hands that you need to throw, actually exceeds
that twohitsrequired mark because of all those onehitisn’tenough
performances. In
other words, the more you miss, the more you have to hit…just to break even. To
be totally fair though, it still doesn’t take very much diceinfluencing skill for
this wager to be a steady profit contributor, even if you do decide to strictly adhere to
flatbets only. Take a look:
Your
SevenstoRolls Ratio largely determines the average rollduration of your 4 & 10
Placebet. Ø Now we all know that sometimes a randomroller will throw all kinds of 4’s and 10’s, while at other times they can’t produce them to save their life.
Ø
On
average though, the house wins out on the randomlywagered 4 and 10…and at the end of
the day, it remains a netdetractor to your bankroll.
Ø
On
the other hand, even a flatbetting SRR7 shooter can produce a modest netprofit with
this wager. Sure, sometimes he’ll throw
a 7Out before producing the two required winning hits that it takes to make this bet
netprofitable; but over time, even flat betting it will produce a decent profit for this
caliber of shooter by providing an average return of 8% profit on each and every hand that
he throws. For the SRR8 shooter, that
rateofreturn jumps to nearly 26% R.O.I. per hand.
As
good as advantageplay flatbetting can be; there is an even better way for the
modestly skilled PrecisionShooter to produce steadier and larger profits from the
exact same skilllevel. Ø Your SRR determines the ability for any given wager to survive over multiple Pointcycle rolls.
Ø
That
survival rate is determined by the everpresent 7.
Ø
As
your SRRrate improves over random, your chances of a given bet surviving for additional
rolls, increases.
Ø
The
higher your SRRrate is, the longer a given bet has a chance to survive…and THRIVE! As
with a randomroller, each SRRrate produces its own rollduration decayrate against
which your validated edge against any given wager has to fight.
Ø
When
we take the survivalrate for a given wager like the Placebet 4 and 10, and pit it
against the rollduration decayrate of your current SevenstoRollsRatio (SRR), we can
establish the optimal time at which to regress your initially large Placebets into
smaller, lowervalue ones on the same numbers. As
we’ve seen in previous chapters, the perroll decayrate is different for each
SRRrate as well as each type of wager. Here
is what it looks like for the 4 and 10 Placebet pointcycle:
Although
the percentages for each SRR proficiencyrate may appear to be relatively close to each
other, and not significantly better than random; it is in that small degree of
positiveexpectation variance that we find all kinds of reliable profit. This is especially true in the first couple of
pointcycle rolls during any given hand. As
we’ve discussed previously, your perroll chances of rolling a 7 stays exactly the
same. For a randomroller it remains
rocksteady at 16.67% perroll, and for the SRR7 shooter it stays locked in at 14.29% per
pointcycle roll. However, the cumulative
rollending effect of the 7 does not remain steady…in fact, it increases
dramatically. As a result, your chances of
having a long non7 hand decays with each and every subsequent pointcycle roll that you
make. Sure, you may sometimes produce a
headlinemaking megaroll, but most times you won’t.
Advantageplay
means taking profitable advantage of what your diceinfluencing skills are most capable of
producing. You can try to bet like EVERY
hand will be a megahand, but frankly you are going to be disappointed many more times
than you’ll be elated. The
use of Initial Steep Regressions bring profitreliability much closer to hand…much
more often. Your
Mileage May Vary
As
your SevenstoRolls Ratio (SRR) improves, the appearancerate for the 7 declines. Ø The less the 7 shows up within a given samplinggroup, the more other non7 outcomes will take its place. Therefore, a reduced 7’s appearancerate means an increased winningbet rate.
Ø
To
give your diceshooting skills the best opportunity to prosper, you should determine
exactly which numbers are taking the place of those diminishing 7’s.
Ø
In
the samples that I’ve used in this series, I’ve evenly spread those replacement
numbers across the entire outcome spectrum. As
such, your expectancychart may look somewhat different than the generic ones here. As
we’ve discussed before:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positiveexpectation territory; then we can
easily determine a way in which to use an initially large “startinglevel”
wager, and then calculate when the ideal time to regress it down to a still productive
postregression value is.
Ø
As
I showed above; even though Kellystyle flatbetting can produce a netprofit, the use of
ISR’s substantially increase our sameskill profitrate.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand. Conversely, the higher your SRR is, the more time
(as measured by the number of pointcycle rolls) you will have in which to fully exploit
your diceinfluencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected rollduration hitrate chart for the 4 and 10 Placebet that we just looked
at, helps us to correctly factor in the modified sevensappearancerate for each SRR;
which in turn brings to light the optimal regression triggerpoint for each skilllevel.
Ø
Once
we know where that positivetonegative transition point is, we can use it as the
triggerpoint in which to optimally regress our large initialwager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lockin a netprofit
while still maintaining active but lowervalue bets on the layout in the event that our
handduration does exceed and survive that positivetonegative transition point, as it
often will. A
Practical Comparison
Let’s
look at how this works when we compare flatbetting $25 each on the 4 and 10 versus initially
betting $25 each on the 4 and 10 then steeply regressing it to $5 each on the 4
and 10 at the appropriate triggerpoint.
I
deleted any further references to SRR6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negativeexpectation territory. Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled diceinfluencer
to achieve a netprofit much sooner and on a much more consistent
basis than if he is making comparably spread flat Kellystyle bets. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRRbased triggerpoint at which the
LargebettoSmallbet regression takes place.
Here’s
a summarized comparison between flatbetting the 4 and 10 Placebet versus the use of an
Initial Steep Regression:
Ø A $8 perhand profit for a SRR7 flatbettor is fairly meager when compared to the $47 perhand profit from the same guy using a Steep Regression.
Ø
Each
scenario starts off with the same bet, $25 each on the 4 and 10. The big difference comes when the smart player
regresses his initially large wager down to a more reasonable one when it is approaching
negativeexpectation territory…thereby locking up a profit no matter what happens
during the rest of the hand. Now
the argument could be made that the guy who never regresses his bets will make more money
in the event that this hand turns out to be THE hand of the century. That assumption of course is correct for long
hands; however, we are talking about your averagehand and your averagesession
shooting where your skills should be producing a profit for you…but they
currently aren’t. No
one in their right mind is saying that you can’t pressup your regressed bets with
ongoing winningwager revenue if your longerduration hand does continue to produce
money; however the fact remains that MOST of your barelybetterthanrandom hands
don’t get to that point; yet they can STILL be netprofitable if you bet them
properly. Anyone
can make money off of 20, 30, 50 and 70roll hands, but it takes an acute sense of
skillsawareness and bettingefficiency to take advantage of the short and mediocre ones
too. SRRbased
ISR’s help you accomplish that. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø The steeper the regressionratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a netprofit will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regressionratio is; the less frequent and lower your netprofit will
be.
Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRRrate improves, so does your return on investment:
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better you’ll be able to take full advantage of your current diceinfluencing
skills. It
is important to note that each SRRlevel forces a different betreduction triggerpoint. While the SRR7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR8 diceinfluencer can reasonably
keep them up at their initial large size for the first two pointcycle rolls before
needing to steeply regress them. In the case
of a SRR9 shooter using the 4 and 10 Placebet that we’ve been discussing today,
he’ll generally get the benefit of four preregression hits before optimally
reducing his betexposure.
Ø
The
fewer advantagedbets that you spread your money over, the fewer winninghits you will
need in order to produce a netprofit.
Ø
By
limiting your wagers to just two Placebets like the 4 and 10; the required number of
winninghits to break through to netprofit is minimal.
Ø
When
you add in the use of an Initial Steep Regression, you enable your diceinfluencing skills
to get to that profit breakthrough point much faster and with much more
consistency. Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor

