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Part X Why
ISRs Offer More Profit Predictability
The
intelligent use of Initial Steep Regressions (ISR's) is the closest a player can come to
accurately projecting his profit on a session-to-session, day-to-day, week-to-week,
month-to-month and year-to-year basis. Nothing
else comes closer to predicting how much profit an advantage-player can yield on a
per-hand basis. Ø By taking a players entire SRR-predictive range of roll-outcomes (from the shortest Point-then-7-Out to the longest mega and mini-mammoth hands) for each Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio; and then counterposing and evaluating every global (multi-number/multi-decision) bet on the table, we can determine the optimal regression point for each bet-type and skill-level.
Ø Since volatility-measurement and volatility-management is built into each of the optimal regression trigger-points for each of the bet-types we are discussing in this series; a player can determine how many rolls and winning-hits he can generally expect from each hand depending on his current in-casino SRR-rate.
Ø
The
charts in this series not only show how it is done, but also why ISR's are truly
superior to other wagering methods and why they work so well. The only thing the shooter has to do is to control
his betting-discipline as much as he controls the dice at his current SRR
skill-level. For
example
Ø
If
he knows how many turns with the dice hell have during an average session; then
using the SRR-tables in this series, he can look at his current SRR dice-influencing
skill-level and his current bankroll, plus his current wager-size comfort-level; and then
determine the appropriate ISR betting method (Inside-Numbers, All-Across wagers,
Outside-Numbers, Even-Numbers, the Iron Cross, or simple 6 & 8, 5 &
9, or 4 & 10 regressions, or even more exotic multi-stage Place-Come-Place
staggered regression-type wagers) and determine not only the bet-type that is just
right for him, but also how much money hell likely make from those
ISR-wagers during an average session. How
ISRs Offer Better Profit Dependability
Ø If a player has a fairly good dice-tossing consistency, yet he has a hard time getting to any level of revenue-consistency; then chances are, he hasn't properly matched his shooting prowess with his betting prowess.
Ø
ISRs
are especially useful to players who have developed a modest ability to influence
the dice, but haven't yet been able to turn their skills into steady earnings. With
the use of Initial Steep Regressions, a novice player can reap a larger degree of the
rewards that his de-randomized throws are offering; while an advanced player can extract
even more income from his current skill-set on a much more predictable basis...with each
player accomplishing his profit-objective more often and with less overall risk
than flat or pressed-up wagering. Putting
the 6 and 8 Place-bet Under a Microscope
So
far weve looked at how well ISRs work on several global-type bets that cover
four numbers (Inside, Outside, and Even), six numbers (Across) and
even ten numbers (Iron Cross) at the same time.
However, lets say you are just considering Place-betting your two most
dominant Signature-Numbers like the 6 and 8.
Ø
In
random expectancy, well see five 6s and five 8s against six appearances
of the 7, which equates to ten appearances of the 6 and 8 for every six appearances for
the 7.
Ø That ratio of 10:6 means a random-roller can expect a 6s-and-8s-to-7s appearance-rate of 1.67:1.
Ø
As
you know, the difference in that ratio is not enough to make up for the cost of a 7-out
which would wipe out both Place-bet wagers; and even though a winning hit pays 7:6
it
is still not enough to overcome the house-edge.
Ø
A
simple look at the combined value of both bets against their single-hit payoff quickly
exposes where all of that negative-expectation comes from.
Ø
A
simple $6 Place-bet on both the 6 and 8 offers a $7 payoff for $12 of risk.
Ø
In
that light, the 10:6 (1.67:1) Sixes-&-Eights-to-Sevens ratio doesnt look all
that appealing even with the better than even-money payoff that those winning Place-bets
pay.
Ø
As
a result, random-rollers stay on the negative-side of the expectation curve, while
dice-influencers cross over into positive territory on a regular basis.
Ø
By
using an ISR, the talented shooter can capitalize on those positive-side raids in a much
more reliable way. Why
ISRs Work So Well With Simple 6 & 8 Place-bets
We
know that for a random-roller, the 7 is expected to show up once every six rolls. With a 16.67% appearance-rate, that DOES NOT
mean that the 7 will show up like clockwork on each and every sixth roll. Instead, it means that its appearance-rate will
average out to once every six rolls. Thats
the nature of the beast that we call volatility.
As
dice-influencers we know that the further we move our shooting away from the
randomly-expected SRR-6, the better we are at keeping the 7 at bay. In
a random outcome game, the 6 and 8 constitute 27.78% of all possible
outcomes. There
are:
Ø
Five
ways to make a 6, and a Place-bet pays 7:6.
Ø
Five
ways to make an 8, and a Place-bet pays 7:6. Therefore,
the Place-bet 6 and 8 wager constitutes 10-out-of-36 (27.78%) of all randomly-expected
outcomes, and its payout for a $6 bet is $7.00 per winning hit. As
with every Rightside bet, how often the 7 appears is dictated by your skill-based
SRR-rate.
Although
the sheer number of 6s and 8s doesnt rise that dramatically when your
shooting-skill improves; the real difference comes in the reduced appearance-rate of
hand-ending 7s. In the chart above, an
SRR-9 shooter only generates slightly more 6s and 8s than a random-roller does
(10.67 versus 10.00). However, since his
dice-influencing produces a lower overall sevens-appearance-rate, his actual
6s-and-8s-to-7s ratio improves by more than 62% (from 1.67 to 2.67). That
is a healthy increase that a savvy advantage-player simply cannot ignore. Anatomy
Of a 6
& 8
Place-bet
The
primary advantage-play rule-of-thumb is: The
fewer advantaged bets that you spread your money over, the fewer winning hits you will
need in order to produce a net-profit.
Place-betting
the 6 and 8 only requires two winning hits to repay your initial base-bet before breaking
into net-profitability. As
a flat-betting advantage-player, two hits on either the 6 and 8 seems like a modest
goal; but you have to maintain perspective and think about all of the times when
youve only hit one of them. If
you add up all of those frustrating one-roll-short-of-a-profit losses; youll
quickly see that the number of winning hands that you need to throw, actually exceeds
that two-hits-required mark because of all those one-hit-isnt-enough
performances. In
other words, the more you miss, the more you have to hit
just to break even. To
be totally fair though, it still doesnt take very much dice-influencing skill for
this wager to be a steady profit contributor, even if you do decide to strictly adhere to
flat-bets only. Take a look:
Your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio largely determines the average roll-duration of your 6 & 8 Place-bet. Ø Now we all know that sometimes a random-roller will throw all kinds of 6s and 8s, while at other times they cant produce them to save their life.
Ø
On
average though, the house wins out on the randomly-wagered 6 and 8
and at the end of
the day, it remains a net-detractor to your bankroll.
Ø
On
the other hand, even a flat-betting SRR-7 shooter can produce a net-profit with this
wager. Sure, sometimes hell throw a
7-Out before producing the two required winning hits that it takes to make this bet
net-profitable; but over time, even flat betting it will produce a decent profit for this
caliber of shooter by providing an average return of 16% profit on each and every hand
that he throws. For the SRR-8 shooter, that
rate-of-return jumps to nearly 40% R.O.I. per hand. As
good as A-P flat-betting can be; there is an even better way for the modestly
skilled Precision-Shooter to produce steadier and larger profits from the exact same
skill-level.
Ø
Your
SRR determines the ability for any given wager to survive over multiple Point-cycle rolls.
Ø
That
survival rate is determined by the ever-present 7.
Ø
As
your SRR-rate improves over random, your chances of a given bet surviving for additional
rolls, increases.
Ø
The
higher your SRR-rate is, the longer a given bet has a chance to survive
and THRIVE!
Ø
When
we compare your bet-survival-rate and pit it against the roll-duration decay-rate of your
current Sevens-to-Rolls-Ratio (SRR), we can establish the optimal time at which to
regress your initially large bet into a smaller, lower-value one.
As
weve seen in previous chapters, the per-roll decay-rate is different for each
SRR-rate as well as each type of wager. Here
is what it looks like for the 6 and 8 Place-bet point-cycle:
Although
the percentages for each SRR proficiency-rate may appear to be relatively close to each
other, and not significantly better than random; it is in that small degree of
positive-expectation variance that we find all kinds of reliable profit. This is especially true in the first couple of
point-cycle rolls during any given hand. As
weve discussed previously, your per-roll chances of rolling a 7 stays exactly the
same. For a random-roller it remains steady
at 16.67% per-roll, and for the SRR-7 shooter it stays locked in at 14.29% per point-cycle
roll. However, the cumulative
roll-ending effect of the 7 does not remain stable. As
a result, your chances of having a long non-7 hand decays with each and every subsequent
point-cycle roll that you make. Sure, you may
sometimes produce a headline-making mega-roll, but most times you wont. Advantage-play
means taking profitable advantage of what your dice-influencing skills are most capable of
producing. You can try to bet like EVERY
hand will be a mega-hand, but frankly you are going to be disappointed many more times
than youll be elated. The
use of Initial Steep Regressions bring profit-reliability much closer to hand
much
more often. Your
Mileage May Vary
As
your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) improves, the appearance-rate for the 7 declines. Ø The less the 7 shows up within a given sampling-group, the more other non-7 outcomes will take its place. Therefore, a reduced 7s appearance-rate means an increased winning-bet rate.
Ø
To
give your dice-shooting skills the best opportunity to prosper, you should determine
exactly which numbers are taking the place of those diminishing 7s.
Ø
In
the samples that Ive used in this series, Ive evenly spread those replacement
numbers across the entire outcome spectrum. As
such, your expectancy-chart may look somewhat different than the generic ones here. As
weve discussed before:
Ø
If
we know how long our hand generally stays in positive-expectation territory; then we can
easily determine a way in which to use an initially large starting-level
wager, and then calculate when the ideal time to regress it down to a still productive
post-regression value is.
Ø
As
I showed above; even though Kelly-style flat-betting can produce a net-profit, the use of
ISRs substantially increase our same-skill profit-rate.
Ø
The
closer your SRR is to random; the faster you will have to regress your bets in order to
have the greatest chance of making a profit during any given hand. Conversely, the higher your SRR is, the more time
(as measured by the number of point-cycle rolls) you will have in which to fully exploit
your dice-influencing skills.
Therefore,
the expected roll-duration hit-rate chart for the 6 and 8 Place-bet that we just looked
at, correctly factors in the modified sevens-appearance-rate for any given SRR; which in
turn produces the optimal regression trigger-point for each skill-level.
Ø
Once
we know where that positive-to-negative transition point is, we can use it as the
trigger-point in which to optimally regress our large initial-wager down to a lower level. In doing so, we concurrently lock-in a net-profit
while still maintaining active but lower-value bets on the layout in the event that our
hand-duration does exceed and survive that positive-to-negative transition point, as it
often will. A
Practical Comparison
Lets
look at how this works when we compare flat-betting $30 each on the 6 and 8 versus initially
betting $30 each on the 6 and 8 then steeply regressing it to $6 each on the 6
and 8 at the appropriate trigger-point.
I
deleted any further references to SRR-6 random betting in the following charts simply
because it always remains in negative-expectation territory. Using
an Initial Steep Regression (ISR) permits even the most modestly skilled dice-influencer
to achieve a net-profit much sooner and on a much more consistent
basis than if he is making comparably spread flat Kelly-style bets. The
following ISR chart utilizes the optimum SRR-based trigger-point at which the
Large-bet-to-Small-bet regression takes place.
Heres
a summarized comparison between flat-betting the 6 and 8 Place-bet versus the use of an
Initial Steep Regression:
I
dont know about you, but most players want to get the most bang for their buck.
Ø
A
$10 per-hand profit for a SRR-7 flat-bettor is good, but a $63 per-hand profit for
the same guy using a Steep Regression is a whole lot better.
Ø
In
both cases, each scenario starts off with the same bet, $30 each on the 6 and 8. The big difference comes when the smart player
regresses his initially large wager down to a more reasonable one when it is approaching
negative-expectation territory
thereby locking up a profit no matter what happens
during the rest of the hand. Now
the argument could be made that the guy who never regresses his bets will make more money
in the event that this hand turns out to be THE hand of the century. That assumption of course is correct for long
hands; however, we are talking about your average-hand and your average-session
shooting where your skills should be producing a profit for you
but they
currently arent. No
one in their right mind is saying that you cant press-up your regressed bets with
ongoing winning-wager revenue if your longer-duration hand does continue to produce money;
however the fact remains that MOST of your barely-better-than-random hands
dont get to that point; yet they can STILL be net-profitable if you bet them
properly. Anyone
can make money off of 20, 30, 50 and 70-roll hands, but it takes an acute sense of
skills-awareness and betting-efficiency to take advantage of the short and mediocre ones
too. SRR-based
ISRs help you accomplish that. Using
Different Steepness Ratios
Ø
The
steeper the regression-ratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a net-profit
will be secured.
Ø
The
shallower the regression-ratio is; the less frequent and lower your net-profit will
be. Take
a look at how various steepness ratios affect your profitability.
As
your SRR-rate improves, so does your return on investment:
Again,
as your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate of return will be. Obviously, the better funded your session bankroll
is, the better youll be able to take full advantage of your current dice-influencing
skills. It
is important to note that each SRR-level forces a different bet-reduction trigger-point. While the SRR-7 shooter has to immediately regress
his large initial bet after just two hits; the SRR-8 dice-influencer can reasonably
keep them up at their initial large size for the first three point-cycle rolls
before needing to steeply regress them. In
the case of a SRR-9 shooter using the 6 and 8 Place-bet that weve been discussing
today, hell generally get the benefit of four pre-regression hits before
optimally reducing his bet-exposure.
As
I mentioned above; the fewer advantaged bets that you spread your money over, the fewer
winning hits you will need in order to produce a net-profit. By
limiting your wagers to just two Place-bets like the 6 and 8; the required number of
winning hits to break through to net-profit is minimal.
As well see in future chapters of this series, this rule-of-thumb will
hold us in good stead when we are converting our SRR-based skill into a 90%
winning-session rate that produces a steadily reliable 30% return-on-investment per
session. You
do the math. If that kind of
profit-consistency interests you; I hope youll join me as we explore how
regression-betting truly does avoid bankroll-depression.
Until then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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