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Regression Avoids Depression
Part V

 Using Different Steepness Ratios

In Part Four of this series, we looked at the profitability of using a $110-Inside to $22-Inside regression.  That equates to a 5:1 regression-ratio. Part One of this series explains in detail what regression-ratios are, and how we use them.

Simply stated:

Ø       The steeper the regression-ratio is; the higher, earlier and more often a net-profit will be secured.

 

Ø       The shallower the regression-ratio is; the less frequent and lower our net-profit will be.

 

The Risk of Using Too LOW of a Regression Ratio

If we try to go cheap with our betting by not putting out a large enough initial bet (or by flat-betting) when we have the best chance of actually capitalizing on our Precision-Shooting abilities; then it’s little wonder why so many accomplished players run into difficulty in exploiting even their most obvious skills. 

Ø       If our bets are too low or the regressions that we use are too shallow in ratio; then we'll almost always restrain and unnecessarily retard our advantage-play earnings.

 

Ø       Most players look at a lower-value/lower-ratio starting-level for their regression as a way of reducing volatility; but in fact, it just makes it harder (or almost impossible) for them to break through to profit on a sustainable basis.

 

Ø       The lower and closer your Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio (SRR) is to random; the less time (as measured by number of point-cycle rolls) you will have in which to capitalize on your dice-influencing skill.  Therefore you have to bet on the fattest part of your roll-duration expectancy curve.


Let’s take a look at various ISR steepness-ratios to see how they affect our average profit per hand.

Inside-bet Regression

Various Steepness Ratios

SRR-7

 

Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Initial

Large Bet

$44-Inside

$66-Inside

$88-Inside

$110-Inside

$220-Inside

Subsequent Small Bet

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

1st Hit

$14

$21

$28

$35

$70

2nd Hit

Post-Regression

$6.92

Weighted payout

Post-Regression

$6.92

Weighted payout

Post-Regression

$6.92

Weighted payout

Post-Regression

$6.92

Weighted payout

Post-Regression

$6.92

Weighted payout

Total Expected Payout

$20.92

$27.92

$34.92

 

$41.92

 

$76.92

Remaining Exposed Wagers

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

 

$22.00

 

$22.00

Net-Profit per Hand

-$1.08

$5.92

$12.92

$19.92

$54.92

Return-on- Investment

-2.45%

8.97%

14.68%

18.11%

24.96%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see on the chart above; combining a regression that is too shallow (2:1) with a modest SRR, can result in a negative result even though you will often hit your first paying Inside-Number bet and still be able to make the regression.  What puts this SRR-7 shooter into negative territory is the fact that he won’t hit enough paying Inside-Numbers often enough at the regressed $22-Inside mark to make the bet become net-positive.

On the other hand, you can see that if this same SRR-7 shooter simply increases (steepens) the ISR regression-ratio to 3:1, the very same skill-set produces a modest profit.

Ø       As your SRR-rate improves and the steepness of your regression increases; so does your return on investment. 

 

For example, in the chart below, a SRR-8 dice-influencer produces a profit even when employing a shallow 2:1 regression ratio.  Obviously though, his bet-flexibility and overall income rises dramatically as his regression-ratio increases.

Inside-bet Regression

Various Steepness Ratios

SRR-8

 

Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Initial

Large Bet

$44-Inside

$66-Inside

$88-Inside

$110-Inside

$220-Inside

Subsequent Small Bet

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

1st Hit

$14

$21

$28

$35

$70

2nd Hit

$14

$21

$28

$35

$70

3rd Hit

$14

$21

$28

$35

$70

4th Hit

Post-Regression $6.69

Weighted payout

Post-Regression $6.69

Weighted payout

Post-Regression $6.69

Weighted payout

Post-Regression $6.69

Weighted payout

Post-Regression $6.69

Weighted payout

Total Expected Payout

$48.69

$69.69

$90.69

 

$111.69

 

$216.69

Remaining Exposed Wagers

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

 

$22.00

 

$22.00

Net-Profit per Hand

$26.69

$47.69

$68.69

$89.69

$194.69

Return-on- Investment

60.66%

72.26%

78.06%

81.54%

88.50%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is important to note that each SRR-level forces a different bet-reduction trigger point.  While the SRR-7 shooter has to immediately regress his large initial bet after just one hit; the SRR-8 dice-influencer can reasonably keep them up at their initial large size for the first three point-cycle rolls before having to steeply regress them.

Ø       As your SRR improves over random, the higher your rate-of-return will be. 

 

Ø       Obviously, the more well-endowed your session bankroll is and the more comfortable you are in using higher-ratio steeper-regression wagers; the more you will be able to take full advantage of your dice-influencing skills.

 
Take a look at the added flexibility that a SRR-9 dice-influencer enjoys.

Inside-bet Regression

Various Steepness Ratios

 

Ratio

2:1

3:1

4:1

5:1

10:1

Initial

Large Bet

$44-Inside

$66-Inside

$88-Inside

$110-Inside

$220-Inside

Subsequent Small Bet

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

$22-Inside

1st Hit

$14

$21

$28

$35

$70

2nd Hit

$14

$21

$28

$35

$70

3rd Hit

$14

$21

$28

$35

$70

4th Hit

$14

$21

$28

$35

$70

5th Hit

Post-Regression $6.86

Weighted payout

Post-Regression $6.86

Weighted payout

Post-Regression $6.86

Weighted payout

Post-Regression $6.86

Weighted payout

Post-Regression $6.86

Weighted payout

Total Expected Payout

$62.68

$90.86

$118.86

 

$146.86

 

$286.86

Remaining Exposed Wagers

$22.00

$22.00

$22.00

 

$22.00

 

$22.00

Net-Profit per Hand

$40.86

$68.86

$96.86

$124.86

$264.86

Return-on- Investment

98.86%

104.33%

110.07%

113.51%

120.39%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Part Six of this series adds a whole new dimension to regression-based profit-making.  I hope you will join me for that.  Until then,

Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life.

Sincerely,

The Mad Professor


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