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You
Cant Shine a Cow-Patty
or CAN You? For
some players, it takes a paradigm shift to go from what they thought they knew about the
game back when they were random-rollers, to what they know now as advantage-play
Precision-Shooters. Ill
give you an example. Ø
Most
every craps book on the market paints the Field-bet as a bad wager. Ø
For
random-rollers, the house holds a 5.56% advantage over them. Even in casinos where the Field-12 gets paid at
3:1, the house-edge is still 2.78%. Ø
Though
the Field covers seven numbers (2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11 and 12), and there are 16-out-of-36
random-outcomes which cover them; it is the other non-Field numbers (5, 6, 7, and
8) with their 20-out-of-36 random-occurrences that validates that bad bet
designation for random shooters. However,
knowledgeable Precision-Shooters understand that profitable dice-influencing is all about
overcoming the house-edge
and actually turning it into a players
advantage. So
the question becomes, Can it be done on the Field, and if so, how good of a
shooter do you have to be to make the Field-bet profitable? The
answer is, Yes, it can be done, and it only takes very
modest dice-influencing skills to do it. The
X-6 Set / Field-Bet Combination For
most intermediate-skilled X-6 set shooters, the biggest frustration is dealing with all
the non-paying trash numbers that the Crossed-Sixes set throws off during a hand. For
me, I see that X-6 set frustration more as a superb profit-making opportunity.
Ø
What
if you could use the Field-bet as your MAIN wager and your MAIN
dice-influencing income source?
Ø
What
if you could use the non-Field 5, 6, and 8 outcomes simply as supporting cast members who
prop up the use and utility of your Field income without unduly diluting it? If
you knew the Field-bet could produce outstanding returns even at a low on-axis percentage,
would you consider using it? Defining
Your Advantage Suppose
for a moment that you were able to generally keep the X-6 dice-set on-axis about 55% of
the time. Is
that good enough to justify going up against such a high-vig bet like the Field? Lets
have a look:
I
want to thank ACDOC and Maddog for graciously providing the graphs you see here. The
left-most bars on this graph represent a random-roller.
The first thing youll see is that no matter what bet he makes, the
expectation remains on the negative-side of the earnings line. The
first real glimmer of hope is when either a worse-than-random or better-than-random
axial-maintenance starts to take hold. Not
surprisingly, the first bet that even starts to make sense for the X-6 user is the
Field-bet. Youll
notice too that the Field-bet is the ONLY right-side bet in that group which makes
sense for the X-6 user until he reaches the 55% on-axis level of consistency. Up until that point, all of the other
traditional bets like the Pass-Line, Come-wagering and Place-betting, ALL
remain in negative-expectation territory.
Ø
Now
the first thing that comes to my mind is, If your on-axis percentage
ISNT 55% or better; then why the heck are you still using the X-6 dice-set?
Ø
However,
the second thing that comes to my mind when I look at this chart is, Why the
heck is everyone in the dice-influencing community so down on the Field-bet especially in
light of the fact that so many people blindly follow the X-6 set use, but they dont
capitalize on its very strengths? Its
only after I am able to compose myself at the seeming incredulity of the situation that I
get to my third thought about the X-6 users who have achieved around the 55% O/A
threshold, and that is
Ø
There
are incredible amounts of money to be made DIRECTLY off of the Field
and any other
bets (with the exception of straight up Prop-bets on the 2 and 12) are merely supporting
cast members
or bankroll-sucking leaches that actually reduce your profit-rate. Now,
lets see if my rant was worth all that trouble
The
first thing that should jump right out at you is the fact that at a low axial-maintenance
(even as low as 30%); the Field-bet is the only wager in that bunch that is STILL
profitable even if you never ever get past the 55% on-axis proficiency mark. If
a 55% O/A X-6 shooter can steadily benefit from the Field; can the other 45% of his OFF-axis
outcomes also contribute anything useful? Lets
find out
Outcome-Distribution
Dictates Bet-Decisions
To
decide where and how much of your wagering-weight should be placed on any bets, your
distribution of outcomes should be the sole dictator in that process. That
is: YOUR
dice-set distribution-results (as opposed to random-expectancy) dictates where YOUR
money should be bet.
Ø
Lets
assume for a moment that you are able to keep your dice on-axis about 55% of the time. Though that means that theyll be going
OFF-axis the other 45% of the time; it does not mean that they are
wasted rolls.
Ø
Instead,
we know that youll still have some off-axis Signature Outcomes simply
because, even though the dice sometimes do go off-axis, the two dice often still
remain in correlation. For a full discussion
on correlation, please see Shooting Bible #11.
Ø
Correlated
Signature Outcomes is why youll often see the same roll-results even when one
of your die does go off-axis.
Ø
In
the end though, those same irritating off-axis toss-defects, can still enable
and permit even more tangible profit to be derived from what appears to be a
dice-influencing shortcoming.
Ø
The
first thing I can tell you about this, is that it achieves a Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio of over
1:8 DESPITE the fact that the dice are only kept on-axis 55% of the time.
Ø
The
second thing I can tell you is that with modestly-influenced roll-stats like these, the
Field-bet becomes a no-brainer champion by racking up a stunning 11.25% advantage over the
house. Take
a look at the numbers that correspond with those above-noted axial-outcome percentages,
and then well discuss how to really put a shine on this lowly-regarded Field-bet
cow-patty:
A
random-roller can expect to see a Field-number about 44.44% of the time, while non-Field
outcomes account for the other 55.56% of random appearances. By
subtly affecting the dice-distribution expectancy through dice-influencing, our 55%
on-axis X-6 shooter achieves a significantly better set of outcomes where hell see a
Field-number about 49.62% of the time and a non-Field outcome about 50.38% of the time. At
first glance, those are not huge differences in expected outcomes. However the fact is, you dont have to be
a perfect-thrower to derive an exploitable edge over the house
but you DO
have to bet your advantage correctly, otherwise your skills are almost entirely wasted. The
Bottom Line When
you combine those on-axis outcomes with the off-axis ones, you start to get a more
complete picture of where your strongest and most compelling betting-opportunities are
found
and frankly, where the preponderance of your betting-weight should be placed. So
what does all this mean in terms of this players advantage over the house? Have
a look for yourself:
Ø
At
the top of the advantage-play heap stands the 2 and 12.
Now normally, this Prop-wager has a house-edge of 13.889%, but for the X-6
shooter who has reached an easily achievable 55% O-A skill-level; he not only overcomes
that nearly 14% house-edge
but actually puts his own shooting into the drivers
seat with a positive 20% advantage over each of those traditionally disparaged 2
and 12 Crazy Crapper bets. Thats
a 35% change in course from the hands of a decidedly moderately skilled shooter.
Ø
In
descending order, the Field-bet comes in as his next strongest bet. Again, this wager is traditionally frowned upon
because of its 5.56% house-edge
but thats for random-rollers. For dice-influencers with the modest skill-set
that weve been discussing, that house-edge is pared right down to nothing
and
comes out on the positive side for the player to the tune of an 11.25% advantage on a
downtown-odds table.
Ø
Keep
in mind that advantage-blackjack players start to wet their panties if the edge climbs
anywhere close to 2% or 3%, so an 11.25% player-edge would make them downright
wacky
but many craps veterans still cant get over the psychological hump of
making an advantage-bet that their tablemate-friends might frown upon. Well-intentioned peer-pressure often keeps many
skilled players from earning their rightfully deserved profit.
Ø
In
this scenario, even the normal 4% house-edge on the 5 and 9 Place-bets gets reversed into
a player-advantage of over 6%, while the normal 4.76% cost of buying the 4 or 10 turns
into the players favor to the tune of 4%.
Ø
Keep
in mind that we are not discussing perfect-world scenarios here. We are talking about an unexceptional on-axis
proficiency of 55%, and an even more modest 16% primary-face hit-rate.
Ø
Each
of those negative-to-positive expectancy reversals are so significant that a savvy
player cannot ignore them or eschew them simply because a couple of writers who dont
know preferred stock from livestock and dont understand how a dice-influencer can
maximize his profit without following gambling dogma that is a hold over from the Dark
Ages, said that the Field-bet is a bad thing.
Ø
It
IS a bad thing for random-rollers, but in the unassuming hands of an
intermediately-skilled dice-influencer, the Field-bet can be downright lucrative.
Ø
Instead
of blindly following worn-out gambling decrees and age-old doctrine that was designed for
the world of randomly-thrown outcomes; the astute dice-influencer has to look at his
current abilities and honestly ask himself if he is extracting the maximum possible profit
from each of the bets that he is making. I
am talking about using exactly THE SAME bet-levels that you are comfortable
with now, but simply redeploying that same money on bets that will serve your
current skill-level most equitably.
Ø
Many
players are shocked to discover that they have been unfairly retarding their D-I earnings
simply because some wagers like the Field are saddled with a ladies bet label
or an inner-city-bettors-only stigma. Grow
up
get real
and put your money where it will serve your current skills the best. Oh,
and one other thing. Those on-axis and
off-axis stats that we just reviewed, well you may be surprised to learn that they give
that 55% O/A X-6-set shooter an SRR of 8.33.
Not too shabby for a modestly-skilled player who is off-axis about
45% of the time. So,
Can You Shine THIS Field-Bet Cow-Patty? Yer
darn tootin you can! I
hope youll join me for Part Three of this series when we take this
little filly for a hard ride around the casinos Field-bet meadow. You may be surprised at how quickly she can gallop
to a full and sustained profit. Until
then, Good
Luck & Good Skill at the tables
and in Life Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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