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Is There Unknown Value
in Certain Types of Bets?
As dice-influencers, are we prone to
overlook certain betting-opportunities because of what
we THINK we know about them?
If you were to ask a group of D-I advantage-players to rate the risk/return
ratio of various
multi-number global-bets like Inside,
Across, Outside, Even and the Iron Cross; most
would probably rate the Inside-bet as
offering the best return-on-investment, while the Iron
Cross would mostly be burdened with the
title of worst among the lot.
If you consider any of the global-bets in
the traditional context of return-on-investment per
paying hit; then it’s easy to
see why some multi-number bets are held in far higher esteem
than others.
Take a look:
Inside-bet
Includes Place-bets on the 5, 6, 8,
and 9
Basic cost:
$22.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$7.00
Per-Hit Return-on-Investment
31.8%
Across-bet
Includes Place-bets on the 4, 5, 6,
8, 9, and 10
Basic cost:
$32.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$7.50
Per-Hit Return-on-Investment
23.4%
Outside-bet
Includes Place-bets on the 4, 5, 9, and 10
Basic cost:
$20.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$7.86
Per-Hit Return-on-Investment
39.3%
Even-Number bet
Includes Place-bets on the 4, 6, 8, and 10
Basic cost:
$22.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$7.75
Per-Hit Return-on-Investment
35.2%
Iron-Cross (Anything
but 7)
Includes Place-bets on the 5, 6, and 8,
plus a Field-bet
Basic cost:
$22.00
Weighted Payout/hit:
$4.10
Per-Hit Return-on-Investment
18.6%
So, when appraised from a
traditional return-on-investment-per-hit
point of view; these global
bets are ranked as follows:
Outside 39.3%
Even-Number 35.2%
Inside 31.8%
Across 23.4%
Iron-Cross 18.6%
But is that the real story and is
per-hit R.O.I. the best indicator of their potential in the hands of
a dice-influencer?
Are we seeing the full potential of each of those bets, and is there
possibly any latent attributes
that are hiding within the seemingly
lackluster performance of global-bets like the Iron-Cross or
All-Across wager?
I think there is.
One of the metrics that dice-influencers use to measure success is their
Sevens-to-Rolls
Ratio (SRR), which represents your ability
to alter the ratio between 7’s and non-7 outcomes.
Our SRR also tells us how long, on
average, our Point-cycle will generally last before we
7-Out.
So an SRR-7 means that our
point-cycle will generally last for an average of seven rolls before
the 7-Out ends it; and a Sevens-to-Roll
Ratio of 1:8 means that our point-cycle will usually last
an average of eight rolls.
Another metric that savvy dicesetter’s use to figure out how many
paying-hits their wagers
will generally enjoy before they throw a
roll-ending 7-Out is the expected
hits-per-hand for a
given bet-type.
This is where things get real interesting.
As your SRR-rate increases and the number of 7’s that you throw
decreases; the non-7’s
that replace those reduced-appearance 7’s
is where the bulk of your advantage over the
house comes from.
In my Regression Avoids Depression
series, I’ve codified precisely how the per-roll probability-rate for a
given bet changes in lock-step with the SRR.
There are some excellent pieces of
roll-tracking and edge-determining software out there.
Maddog’s BoneTracker v5.0 is one
that I heartily endorse, not only because DiceTool has
now been fully integrated into it; but more
importantly, because it shows you the exact hit-rate
ratio at which you are currently throwing
most of the global-bets that we’re talking about today.
So obviously you can and should use that
percentage to determine exactly where your multi-
number global bet stands in relation to
it’s true return-on-investment over your entire point-
cycle duration instead of
just on a per-roll basis.
But even without software like that, it is important to understand that your
per-hit return-
on-investment is not the be-all and end-all
of sustainable money-making. Rather, you also have
to look at how frequently your
chosen wagers are likely to hit during a given average point-
cycle and figure out if the total
rate-of-return is to your satisfaction or whether a better skill-
matched-to-advantage betting-regimen is
called for.
When you factor your expected point-cycle hit-rate for these global-bets
against their
weighted payouts; you gain a whole new
perspective and perhaps even a whole new respect
for some of the global-type bets that have
long been looked down upon.
Let me show you what I mean.
Expected overall hit-rate:
Inside 50.0%
Across 66.6%
Outside 38.9%
Even-Number 44.4%
Iron-Cross 83.3%
When we know a players SRR-rate, we
know how long his average point-cycle will last, so we
can immediately determine how efficient
each one of these global-bets are. That is, we
can determine
how well each of these global-bets utilizes each
roll within a players
point-cycle.
When we do that, the resultant overall expected hit-rate/point-cycle offers
a glimpse at what may
be some otherwise overlooked potential.
Take a look:
Inside
18 outcomes out of 30 non-7’s =
60.0% p-c hit rate
Across
24 outcomes out of 30 non-7’s =
80.0% p-c hit rate
Outside
14 outcomes out of 30 non-7’s =
46.7% p-c hit rate
Even
16 outcomes out of 30 non-7’s =
53.3% p-c hit rate
Iron-Cross
30 outcomes out of 30 non-7’s =
100.0% p-c hit rate
If we take a players point-cycle SRR
and multiply it by these hit-rate figures, we can determine
how many times you are likely to hit each
of these global-bets during your point-cycle and
therefore determine how net-profitable each
multi-number bet is likely to be.
In other words, if you really want to test the efficiency of your bets, you
not only have to look at
their return-on-investment on a per-hit
basis; but you have to consider their total overall return-
on-investment over the entire expected
duration of your point-cycle.
Now admittedly this is a simplification to illustrate how rate-of-return
when measured on a per-
hit basis does not tell the whole
advantage-play story, and obviously you’ll be best served by
using the above-noted software to verify
your particular edge; but the following example
illustrates my point quite nicely.
When you multiply a given SRR-rate
by the expected point-cycle hit-rate you determine how
many paying hits each SRR is expected to
generate during its average point-cycle.
SRR-7 Hits-per-PC Gross
Rev/Net-Profit ROI/hand
Inside 4.2
$29.40 $7.40
33.6%
Across 5.6
$42.00 $10.00
31.3%
Outside 3.3
$25.94 $5.94
29.7%
Even 3.7
$28.68 $6.68
30.4%
Iron-Cross 7.0
$28.70 $6.70
30.5%
SRR-8 Hits-per-PC Gross
Rev/Net-Profit ROI/hand
Inside 4.8
$33.60 $11.60
52.7%
Across 6.4
$48.00 $16.00
50.0%
Outside 3.7
$29.08 $9.08
45.4%
Even 4.3
$33.32 $11.32
51.5%
Iron-Cross 8.0
$32.80 $10.80
49.1%
SRR-9 Hits-per-PC Gross
Rev/Net-Profit ROI/hand
Inside 5.4
$37.80 $15.80
71.8%
Across 7.2
$54.00 $22.00
68.8%
Outside 4.2
$33.01 $13.01
65.1%
Even 4.8
$37.20 $15.20
69.1%
Iron-Cross 9.0
$36.90 $14.90
67.7%
When you look at each of these
global-bets with an open-minded perspective, the bets that
most people ‘perceive’ to be sub-par
when compared to the more-accepted traditional
multi-number wagers; you'll find that some
are in fact not only in the same league, but they’re
also pretty much on par with their more
time-honored and revered brethren.
So, Is There Unknown Value in Certain Types
of Bets?
That’s entirely up to you to decide, but it seems to me that some of them
aren’t quite as ‘ugly’
as they’ve been portrayed as being by some
fellow players who really should know better.
When it comes to rejecting certain betting-methods out of hand; you may want
to look a little
deeper than to blindly accept what you’ve
always been taught to believe.
Good Luck & Good Skill at the
Tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
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