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How
To Get THERE from HERE
When
most players look at the existing state of their Precision-Shooting affairs, they realize
that even using their current skill-set, they SHOULD be making more money,
and doing it more often than their recent patchwork of wins, losses and
break-even sessions would seem to indicate. Its
an age-old problem in business as well as in the casino.
Most players want to increase their profitability without escalating their
risk. So
lets take a look at how to get THERE from here
Where
is THERE? By
my definition, HERE means your current profit-level and win-rate, while
THERE means bigger and more consistent wins with equal or reduced risk,
from the same skill-set. So the idea
is to get more consistent profitability from the game, and bigger wins from each session
that you play, yet not increase the risk to your bankroll along the way. That
sounds like quite the task. This
series of articles will map out several routes that will show you how to get from HERE
to THERE. First,
the Bad News
You
will not become a great Precision-Shooter overnight.
In
fact, I can tell you with a high degree of certainty that you will probably not become a
great shooter this year. How
do I know this without knowing you? Precision-Shooting
is a physical skill that must be combined with several mental aspects of the game. As you improve each element, you have to adjust,
recalibrate and fine-tune all of the other characteristics.
You
cant do that in one fell swoop. Rather,
as you make incremental improvements in each segment of your skill-set, youll
continually need to adjust and improve all the other parts.
All of that takes time. Progress
is neither linear (straight-line) nor ever-increasing.
We find that improvements in one area often lead to setbacks and new
obstacles to overcome in other areas. We
are constantly making adjustments to not only the physical side but also to the mental
aspect of our game as well. For me, those
adjustments continue to this very day, and Ive been doing this a long, L-O-N-G time. Each casino, and each table for that matter,
represents a unique set of circumstances, conditions, situations and opportunities. As conditions change from table to table, so too
must we adapt to and overcome those differences. Successful
Precision-Shooting embodies the art and science of constant refinement; and unfortunately,
all of that takes a tremendous amount of time, commitment, and dedication. Overnight
success in this pursuit sometimes takes many YEARS. Now,
the Good News
If
you look back to where your dicesetting skills were just six months ago, you should be
able to see that youve come a LONG way since then.
Similarly, your Precision-Shooting skills will continue to evolve to the
point where youll be able to look back, six months from now to today, and shake your
head in disbelief AGAIN, at just how far you have gone from here. Thats
the nature of this game and the evolution of your Precision-Shooting progress. We
steadily work at improving our skill-set, and each higher level of achievement brings in
better results and steadier profits. Yet,
even many professionals are often surprised when they look back to what they THOUGHT
they knew about how to win just a year or so ago, and they too are amazed at how far
theyve actually come since then. Its
that sort of thing that keeps my game-focus fresh and new profit-opportunities flowing. So,
What Does It Take To Make the BIG Money? A
reader recently asked: MP,
I have been doing this Precision-Shooting now for over two years. I have read numerous
books including all of your articles. My question to you is; what does it take to make the
big money? By that I mean a session-win of
$1000-$2000 or more. Is
it a large starting amount, and then a regression? I
have had many sessions where I have held the dice for 30-45 minutes or more. However, my
biggest winning session was slightly over $300. Most of my wins range from $50 to just
over $100. My buy-ins range from $300-$500. So what am I doing wrong? First
of all, I have to say that there is nothing wrong with winning ANY profit any
time that you play. Sometimes
when I walk out of a casino with one dollar more than I walked in with, I am VERY
happy. Based on my shooting during some
sessions, its a wonder that I am able to make ANY profit at all, let alone
hit my daily $1000 win-goal. Other times,
Ill walk out of the same casino with a $5000 or $6000 win, and wonder why Im
not walking out with MORE. My
hardest fought sessions sometimes render the meagerest of profits, while the biggest
profits seem to come from sessions where its like a walk in the park. In other words, I sometimes have to STRUGGLE just
to eke out a tiny win; yet the huge profits often come from just one seemingly flawless
turn with the dice. Having
said all that; there isn't ONE particular thing that it takes to move up to the
next snack-bracket in winnings. Rather, it is
a combination of factors. So lets take
a look at the various aspects that contribute to your profitability when YOU are shooting. These
are the
Elements
of Higher Profit Average
Roll-Length If
you know, on average, how long you usually roll for; then you can tailor a
betting-approach that is best suited to YOU. If
you usually have, let's say, 10 tosses of the dice in the casino (per hand); then you
know, on average, how long you have to extract maximum dollars out of your roll. If you happen to roll longer than that, then you
can still exploit it, but you will have reduced your bets to a minimum in anticipation of
a "normal-hand 7-out. It's
important that you don't get into a mindset where you are thinking, "Oh oh, here
comes my tenth-roll when I ALWAYS 7-out". Rather,
you are looking through it and beyond it by making EACH and EVERY roll as the only
important one that you are throwing. The last
roll is ancient history, and the only one that matters is the here-and-now next roll. If
you are further interested in how to turn this concept into a reality, I would invite you
to read my How To Get It, and How To Keep It - Part I
article
wherein we explore the ways that I keep the freshness and focus in each and every toss of
the dice. As
far as exploiting short-rolls, you should have a look at these two articles: Like
I said, if we know the average-length of our rolls, we can determine how much time
(measured by the number of rolls) we have to exploit our current Precision-Shooting
skill-set. So its what you do with the
numbers that are hitting during your average hand, which largely determines
how often each of your turns with the dice will be profitable. Even
if your average-hand only runs to four or five or six rolls, yet you arent making
much, if any money off of it; then it is the way you are BETTING, and not the way
you are ROLLING that is causing the low-profit problem. If
you take that a step further and realize that you should be making acceptable profit even
from your short four or five or six roll-hands; then imagine what proper betting will do
for you when your longer rolls come along. Again,
if you havent read the articles that I mention in this piece, or youve
forgotten more about them than you remember, then a re-read is probably in order. Betting-Methods In
knowing your average roll-length, you also are aware that some will be longer and some
will obviously be shorter than the average.
To that end, we want to get to the break-even profit-stage as quickly as
possible during EVERY hand that you throw. That
way, you are able to get to the profit more often, and with less risk,
regardless of what happens later on in the roll. To
determine the average-length of your hand, I like to discard the GREAT rolls, and focus on
the more usual ones. The long, mega-hands
will tend to skew your roll-average a little too much to do you any good during your
normal hands. Now at first
glance, by eliminating your higher 20+, 30+, and 40+ roll hands from the equation, it will
make your average-hand appear to be artificially low, but remember, the whole idea is to
get TO profit, then maximize it for MORE profit once you get
there. By keeping the normal hand
bar quite low, we force ourselves to make the good decisions earlier during each
and EVERY hand, and that keeps us out of trouble almost all of the time. You also have to remember that the less losing
hands that we have, the balance of our winning hands dont even have to be all that
profitable in order for us to show a NET-profit. Again,
the idea is to REACH profit SOONER, and to have MORE winning sessions more OFTEN, and then
once we get there; to make MORE profit from the same number of rolls than we did before. That
is what Precision-Shooting advantage-play is all about. Quick
and Steep Regressions Now
normally I recommend a very early and very steep regression, however you first have to
determine your own ratio of Point-then-Out hands that you throw. That will determine how STEEP and how
EARLY that regression should be used. Let's
say that out of 10 different opportunities with the dice, you throw 3 quick-outs where you
aren't even able to collect ONE bet before 7'ing-Out.
Well that 3:10 Point-then-Out ratio will help you gauge whether a Steep
Regression is right for you, and it will also determine HOW steep it should
be if you decide to go that route. You
have to sit down and figure these things out in order to get to the consistent
profitability. Part of your job as an
aspiring Precision-Shooter is to figure out what works best for your current skills, and
then try to build on that skill-set based on the best advice of those who have traveled
the same road before you. If
you are getting more than 33% quick 7-Outs (a third of your turns with the dice), then
youd have to take a VERY close look at whether this Steep Regression method is right
for you. Of course it also depends on what
normally happens during the other 66% of your hands that will make the final determination
of what the best betting-approach is. Along
with that, I would also suggest you take a long, hard look at your dice-throwing skills,
and try to improve upon them to the point where the quick-outs are brought down to a more
manageable (<33%) level. If
you arent willing to put the time-investment into figuring out those things for
yourself now; then the high price you eventually pay at the tables will reflect the true
cost of your decisions. It is also critical to note that it does you absolutely no good if the bets you place all those Steep Regression wagers on, never come in. Your Signature Numbers largely determine WHAT you bet on, and your average roll-length should dictate WHEN to bet on them, and for how long you leave them exposed. To that end, a complete primer called The When, Where, Why, What and How of Signature Numbers is found here: Your
betting-methods validate the comparative advantage that your own Precision-Shooting skills
have over the house. To that extent, I think
we can agree that it is critical that you tailor each wager to correspond with your own
current dicesetting talents. In which case,
the following articles address that need: Consistent
Profitability You
know I am always using that "C" word in my articles. To me, consistency
is MORE important that the occasional big score. If
you are getting steady $50 wins, then the big wins WILL come along. Please do not scoff at the small wins. I have made a TON of money by stringing together a
bunch of small victories. Let's
take a look at a typical 4 to 5-hour day where I play 10 short casino sessions.
Ø
Out
of those 10 sessions, about 5 of them (yes 50% of them) will only garner small wins of
around $100. However, lets keep in mind
that multiple mini-sessions that spin off $80 to $120 each, have a way of scaling up to
very useable profits.
Ø
Three
out of those 10 short sessions will spawn a profit of around $150 to $300. Again, these numbers are based on my own
dice-throwing; so it often makes little sense for me to stick around waiting to see if
there are any random-rollers who are going to unleash a hot hand of their own. Im more concerned with making as much money
off of my own shooting, rather than hoping for random-chance to show itself in someone
elses lucky toss. Therefore, Ill
weigh-anchor and change tables to where the dice are approaching an open shooting-position
(that I am comfortable with). In doing so,
Im increasing my shooting-opportunities, and making the most efficient use of my
table-time. Ill also let the Table Game
Supervisor know where Im headed, so that my still-on-the-clock Player Rating
Card (with its attendant Comps) will follow me.
Ø
Ill
usually only have one mega-hand out of those 10 short sessions which will register in the
$500 to $2500+ win-category. You can look at
this large-win/low-occurrence ratio from one of two perspectives. On one hand, you could say that the Mad Professor
only throws one great hand out of ten turns with the dice (only 10% of the time); or you
could say, that one $500 to $2500+ win out of ten short sessions is reason enough alone to
justify the time and effort that goes into my average day.
I guess I dont have to tell you where my thinking is at on that
subject.
Ø
The
other remaining session out of those ten, may be a break-even or perhaps produce a small
loss of -$150 or less. While 10% of my
sessions are unprofitable, and sometimes downright lousy; its what I do during the OTHER,
more profitable sessions that determines how big of an impact my lousy break-even or
losing session has on me and my bankroll. YES,
I DO LOSE, but it is critically important to realize when things aren't going our
way and to cut the losing sessions SHORT. That way, any losses that I endure are a minor
irritation, and not a major devastating body-blow. Ill
have much more to say about win/loss ratios and strict, low Loss-Limits in my upcoming
Crop
Circles and Other Casino Phenomenon
article. Handling
Small Wins Listen,
I HATE losing, and when I say that I am satisfied with a small win of $50; I do so based
on the fact that in the past, MANY of my $50 wins turned into $700 and $800 LOSSES
just because I thought I deserved and was capable of earning more during that particular
session. Greed
and lack of discipline has ALWAYS cost me WAY MORE than house-edge and game-volatility
ever could. When
I constantly harp on the idea of savoring those small-dollar wins, it is because they not
only have a way of adding money to your wallet, but they also add confidence to your
Precision-Shooting mind. It took me such an
incredibly long time to realize that, despite what I had heard guys like John Patrick
saying about small wins for years. When the
realization finally sunk in, it really turned my game and my HEAD around
180-degrees. Let
me say it again: Greed
and lack of discipline has ALWAYS cost me WAY MORE than house-edge and game-volatility
ever could. When
I reached the mature conclusion that not every session can be a mega-win, was the point
when I realized that the sweetness of a small $50 win was much less bitter
than a $700 loss. Concurrently,
that was when I started tightening my session Loss-Limits to their current levels. I
simply refuse to lose more than $150 during any session, and I know that Ill be able
to make up for it on the next one. In almost
every event where I chased the small loss and tried to force a win, it resulted in bigger,
more devastating damage to my bankroll, as well as to my ego. So,
losses WILL occur, but its how you handle them, which will determine how big
of a hole you have to dig yourself out of, and how much damage you let them inflict to the
mental side as well as the financial side of your game.
If big losses sap your confidence and your bankroll; then lower Loss-Limits
almost entirely keep you from ever having to deal with that again. Lets
remind ourselves why we are discussing all of this today. We
want to get to more profit, more often. One
of the most efficient and quickest ways to get THERE is to minimize your losses and
embrace the frequent small wins. Its
difficult for most gamblers to even understand this concept, let alone adopt it as
something they are willing to hold themselves to. Small
wins ARE NOT IRRITATING, and they dont have to be frustrating! They are the stepping-stones that we use on our
journey in getting us to the bigger wins more often.
Thats the very nature of Precision-Shooting progress. Concurrent
with that; big losses dont have to be a regular thing, nor do they have to be a
devastating knockout punch either. The
following articles address this subject in much greater detail, and contain many more
actionable ways to stem your losses while still allowing your profits to flourish: Can't Win For
Losing
series:
Hunting
for the Trophy-Kill As
far as the big, long, mega-rolls are concerned; it's a matter of recognizing them, and
then taking full advantage of them when they do come along.
For
that, I usually advocate a more aggressive approach by Pressing my bets AFTER EVERYTHING
HAS BEEN PAID FOR and I have AT LEAST A 50% PROFIT LOCKED-UP (based on the total amount of
money you currently have on the layout). Now
this 50% profit-threshold may sound too conservative before you start your aggressive
Pressing, but remember you have to GET TO ANY profit BEFORE you can get to the BIG
profit, and you dont know ahead of time whether your next hand will be
short, medium or long; so you have to start every hand with the aim of locking in a profit
as soon as possible. From there, as it plays
out, you can get more and more aggressive as it proceeds. In
chasing the big wins, most people are willing to suffer steady and often horrific losses. Its hardly a noble goal when you weigh the
overall cost of an occasional big-dollar trophy-kill triumph to the
steady net-losses you endure while trying to get there. That's
not the way I play, however, you are free to sniff out your own profit-scent trail. For
me, I want the steady net-profit wins, and Im willing to endure a few small
losses, and still manage to get a couple of mega-wins (at loss-tolerant casinos) along the
way. To accomplish any of that, I am NOT
willing to sacrifice most or all of my session bankroll(s) in a futile attempt to bag the
big one. Bagging
the BIG Game So
how do I turn medium-length rolls into BIG wins? Once
I get to that 50% profitability point during a hand; THEN (and ONLY then) do I start to
press AGGRESSIVELY. I can afford to at that
point, and I let my winnings fuel further and much larger wagers (all with the warm fuzzy
knowledge that Ive already got a decent profit locked-up). By
"aggressive pressing" I mean that I use an ever-increasing amount of
bet-increases to foster higher-wins. For
example, I will start to press my Place-bets in ever-increasing steps.
Ø
On
the first win (after making a 50% profit on the amount of money I have on the layout) I
will increase a winning Place-bet by ONE-unit.
Ø
On
it's second hit I'll increase it by TWO-units.
Ø
When
it hits a third time, I'll increase it by THREE-units and so on.
Ø
On
some hits at or beyond that point, I'll make single or double-unit across-the-board
increases on all of my Place-bets, even if one or two of them haven't been coming in as
frequently as my most dominant ones have.
Ø
All
the while, Ill continue to rack any residual profit off of the paying-wagers. Heres
an example:
Ø
Lets
say that I start out with my Passline-Point as 4.
Ø
My
PL flat-bet is $5, and it will be backed with $15 in Odds (on a 3x, 4x, 5x-Odds table).
Ø
Ill
also Place-bet my most dominant Signature Numbers (5, 6, 8, & 9) for $220-Inside ($50
on the 5 & 9, and $60 each on the 6 & 8). Remember,
I am planning a STEEP Regression after just ONE hit on any of my
Place-bet action.
Ø
My
first hit on any of those numbers pays $70. I
immediately steeply regress my Place-bets down to $44-Inside ($10 each on the 5 & 9,
plus $12 each on the 6 & 8).
Ø
At
the same time Ill reduce my PL-Odds on the 4, down to single 1x-Odds ($5). This is NOT blasphemy folks, its how I
assure myself a quick locked-in profit no matter what comes next.
Ø
At
this point I have $54 on the layout, and a $16 net-profit already locked up in my rack. That reflects an approximate 30% net-profit on my
now currently exposed money on the table.
Ø
On
the very next Place-bet win of $14, my net-profit increases past the 50% profit-threshold
for my exposed wagers, so that means from here on out, I can start my Pressing.
Ø
At
first my bet-increase Pressing is fairly conservative.
I Press the next winning wager by one unit ($5 or $6). If and when it hits again, I take the $21 payoff
and use two-units ($10 or $12) to increase that winning wager, and I rack the balance of
the net-profit from that payout.
Ø
I
MAY take a nickel ($5) of that new profit and use it to add one more unit of Odds ($5) to
my PL-Point of 4. As the hand progresses, I
will definitely cap-out (max) my PL-Odds, and might even add to the
flat-portion of it in order to increase my Odds. Obviously,
Ill only be doing that if my hand continues to roll along.
Ø
When
it hits again, that pumped-up Place-bet pays $35, so Ill increase it by three units
($15 or $18). That means its now at the
$40 level for the 5 or 9, and the $48 mark for the 6 or 8.
Ø
The
next payoff brings in $56, whereupon Ill increase that winning bet by four units
($20 or $24), OR Ill make some across-the-board increases on all the
box-numbers including a Place-bet on the 10 if it isnt already covered (if the 10
makes a single appearance during my roll, it will prompt me to make a single-unit $5 wager
on it). I make these across-the board
increases for two reasons. First, I use it to
even out some of the wager/payout norms. For example, I might round-off the 6
or 8 to a $60 wager instead of the slightly more complicated to calculate (for the dealer)
$54 or $66 bet. Secondly, I find that once I
pass a certain number of paying-rolls, Ill often start to see a bit of a more level
distribution of my Place-bet winners. Now
that doesnt always hold true, and sometimes, one Place-number will be so dominant as
to be almost embarrassing for the frequency of times that it repeats for roll after roll
after roll. But generally Ill get a
fairly even distribution of my Top Four most dominant Signature Numbers during a
mid-to-long hand.
Ø
On
the next Place-bet win, Ill increase it by five units ($25 or $30). For any subsequent hits, I will keep my increases
at easy-to-calculate denominations. This is
also the point where I sometimes plateau my profit-collecting. That is, I will stop Pressing for one or two hits
at certain bet-levels so that I can collect more profit, and re-gather my confidence to
step up to the next wagering-height.
Ø
From
that point, my Pressing becomes even more aggressive, and will be in at least units of 5
($25 or $30), and then units of 10 ($50 or $60), and then units of 20 ($100 or $120), etc. Again, I am locking up profit at every step of the
way, and I am plateauing my profit at certain levels to lock in even more. Ill
go into more details about these betting actions in Part Two of this series,
but before that, I want to give you a little insight into how I built up my
shooting-skills BEFORE I ever considered raising my betting-action to these levels. I
think the perspective that you gain on the lower-wager
Cheap Tables is
invaluable in giving you the insight needed into this game and into YOURSELF as
well. With that in mind, I would invite you
to read the following articles which relate quite nicely to this very subject: What
WAS
What IS
What CAN Be As
Im dictating this, Im reminded of the words that one of our dicesetting
communitys best-friends once said: In
brewing beer Ive learned that you can create a lot of different styles and flavors
by giving a small tweak to a base recipe. You
start by developing a very repeatable basic formula. Then by adding a pinch of this or an
ounce of that, you can change the color of the beer, its taste, the amount of carbonation,
just about anything you want. Those
hand-crafting beer is a lot like developing your Precision-Shooting skill
words came from Mike Mokoid (MickeyD), and they reflect the same approach that a
Precision-Shooter has to take when wagering on his own rolls. We tweak, adjust and fine-tune our approach so
that we can maximize profit while still minimizing risk.
We need the money, the awareness, the discipline and the patience to wait
until the good rolls come along, so when they do, we are ready, willing and able to take
full advantage of it. Youll
find all
of
MickeyDs
articles
here ,
and a fitting acknowledgment to this fine gentleman in my I
Never Met Ben Franklin Either... tribute. Folks,
the idea of taking
a look at the existing state of your Precision-Shooting game, and realizing that your
current skill-set SHOULD be generating more money, more often;
often leads us to seek ways to get from here to THERE. If
you havent figured it out by now, the advantage-play edict that I live by is
to
REACH
profit SOONER, and to have MORE winning sessions more OFTEN, and then once we get there;
to make MORE profit from the same number of rolls than we did before. Weve
just had a look at a few of the
first steps you can take on that road. I hope
youll join me as we
continue this lower-risk, higher-profit journey together.
Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. The
Mad Professor
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