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How To Get It, and How To Keep It A
Players Advantage Is Not Always Profitable Once
in a while a rare occurrence will happen at the table.
Lets
say you once threw five 2 s in a row. That
might have happened several weeks or several months or even several years ago. Should
all of your current Precision-Shooting betting reflect your hopes, dreams, aspirations and
fantasies that youll be able to do it again
soon? Should
your bets be geared to the possibility that it will happen again, and that youll be
fully prepared to take advantage of it right from the start? Let
me begin by saying that IF you have a validated skill for throwing a certain
number, it DOES make sense to exploit that advantage. However, to ACTUALLY exploit it, instead
of just HOPING to exploit it; you have to know how frequently you can expect that
advantage to show itself. The
more often it happens, the better prepared youll be to take advantage of it. However, the more rarely it happens will
mean that you are often left HOPING that this is THE
ONE, yet mostly youll be left disappointed (and a few dollars poorer) from the
exercise. Lets
look at a couple of examples so that we can get a better understanding of this
advantage-play phenomenon. Lets
say that your Precision-Shooting skill indicates that, out of 360 rolls of the dice, you
will throw sixty 6s, instead of the randomly-expected fifty
occurrences; and those extra 6s get rid of (offset and eliminate) the
corresponding number of 7s that we would randomly expect to see. In
this case, you not only have a significant advantage (a whopping 20%
expectation-advantage) over the casino, but a significant advantage that is readily apparent, and readily
exploitable simply because it occurs so often. That
20% increase in occurrence means that well see the 6 roll 16.66% of the
time instead of its randomly-expected 13.88% frequency. It may not seem like a big difference, but that
2.78% increase in actual appearances should be enough to wring out a profit. Well
find out in a minute, but first Ill point out that with the 20% increase in the
appearance of the 6, weve put it on par with how often a random-roller can expect to
see a 7. Now THAT Precision-Shooting
advantage should definitely be exploitable. Before
we find out, lets also say that in another set of 360 rolls, a different
Precision-Shooter is able to throw twelve 2s instead of the randomly-expected
ten appearances. That too is the same
significant advantage (a whopping 20%) over what we would normally expect to see, but
its not as readily apparent because the 2 is now showing up 3.33% of the time
instead of the 2.77% that wed normally expect it to occur. Again,
its a 20% increase in frequency, but only a 0.56% increase in the actual number of
times well see it during all of those rolls. It
may not be enough of an increase for our non-math eye to detect it. However, if we track our at-home
practice-sessions, we should be able to identify and then verify that advantage. Sometimes
our dicesetting edge over the game is HUGE, but because it is buried in amongst all those
rolls, it is sometimes hard to detect it without the use of analytical reckoning. So
the question is: If
you have a significant 20% edge over the casino, can you always take profitable advantage
of it? A
wager on the Place-bet of 6 is not a one-roll proposition-bet, so for this exercise, it
will stay up (in action) until a 7-Out knocks it off. In the case of the Prop-bet on the 2, each and
every roll decides its fate. Remember that
both Precision-Shooters are throwing with a validated 20% advantage over the
expected number of outcomes that a random-roller will throw over the same amount
of tosses. Lets
take a look at how these two players fare with their verified 20% increased advantage: The
Six-Shooter player makes a simple non-Pressed, non-Regressed, always-ON, $6
Place-bet on the 6. Remember that both he and
the other dicesetting player have managed to eliminate a corresponding number of 7s
from the 360 outcomes. While
the Six-Shooter has wiped out ten of the 7s, the Ace-Shooter has only eliminated two
of them; however the Place-bet 6 pays a paltry 7-to-6, while the Prop-bet 2 pays an
enormous 30-to-1. Here
is Mr. Six-Shooters results: Ø
The
7-Out will wipe away his $6 bet fifty times; 50 x $6 = (-$300). Ø
His
Place-bet wins sixty times at $7 each; 60 x $7 = $420. Ø
All
the other rolls result in a no decision. Ø
The
Six-Shooter walks away with a $120 profit. In
the meantime, Mr. Ace-Shooter has been tossing his corresponding 20% advantage-roll too. Lets see how he makes out: Ø
He
throws 360 rolls @ $1 each; 360 x $1 = (-$360). Ø
The
Aces (2) Prop-bet wins twelve times at 30:1; 12 x $30
= $360. Ø
The
Ace-Shooter doesnt lose anything, but he doesnt win anything either, despite
what clearly is a distinct advantage. Now, if
the casino that he frequents only pays 30-for-1 instead of 30-to-1;
then his true 29-to-1 payout will actually accrue a -$12 loss. In
this case, even though it pays a whopping downtown odds of 30-1, and he has an
astounding 20% edge OVER the house as far as expected outcomes are concerned; if he
bets a buck ($1) on each roll of the dice, he would only be breaking even. Bet two bucks on each roll and you are still
breaking even; bet $10 per roll and you are STILL only breaking even. Mr.
Ace-Shooter has developed an outstanding and validated 20% Precision-Shooting advantage
just like Mr. Six-Shooter, but one is making $120 in profit, while the other is merely
churning the same dollars over and over again without getting anywhere; or worse yet,
under a 30-for-1 payout, he has to live with a loss DESPITE his seemingly huge
shooting-skill advantage. Whats
wrong with this picture? Whats
wrong, is that the edge for Mr. Ace-Shooter doesnt manifest (show) itself
often enough in a predictable enough way, so a huge 20% edge ISNT enough to make any
money. Even though we eliminated
the corresponding number of 7s as the offset for the respective 20%
advantage that each player had; the sad fact is that advantage does not
always equal PROFIT. Lets
go right back to the first example that I used. Lets
say that you once threw five 2s in a row, and ever since then, youve
meticulously tracked its occurrence; so you also KNOW youve got the same 20%
advantage that Mr. Ace-Shooter has. Youve
even taken that one step further. You
have actually labeled the 2 as one of your dominant Signature-Numbers. In fact, your current betting reflects the trust
you place in that validated 20% skill-advantage, yet that very same Precision-Shooting advantage
that you have worked so hard to achieve, is not translating into any tangible retained
net-profit. The
truth is, that the further out on the random-expectancy chart that you go with your
Precision-Shooting advantage; the BIGGER your edge over the house has to be
before youll be able to realize consistent profit from it. In
other words, if you are an Ace(2)-Shooter or a Midnight(12)-Shooter, youll need be a
much, MUCH BETTER Precision-Shooter than someone who is able to throw just a few
additional Inside Numbers. The
reason it is so, is because even a random roll will produce a fair number of 6s. When the semi-skilled dicesetter adds just one or
two more, he negates the house-edge on that bet. Since
the payout is reflective of its likely appearance (a thin 1.515% house-advantage),
it is easier to overcome that, than someone who is bucking not only a higher house-edge
(13.889% on the 2), but also the infrequency of its expected random appearance. Simply
stated, a skilled Precision-Shooter has to be REALLY good to take advantage
of the situation on the extreme outside numbers (2 and 12), while the guy who is able to
throw a couple more extreme inside numbers
like the 6 or 8, only has to be SLIGHTLY better than a random-roller before
being able to take advantage of his skill. Im
not saying you cant make money off of the 2, 3, 11, or 12. All Im saying is
that you have to be MUCH better than someone who is only slightly skilled at throwing the
Inside-Numbers, to fare nearly as well. Thats
certainly something to think about before you jump back into the game with a fist full of
money. Dont
Ask the Question If You Dont Want to Hear the Answer A
player can eliminate a lot of his LOSING ways just by changing the way he THINKS about WINNING. As
Precision-Shooters, we should EXPECT to make a profit, even if its only a
small one, every time that we step up to the tables.
Most
players will tell you that they WANT to win, but few allow themselves the
self-confidence so theyll actually EXPECT to win. Many
aspiring dicesetters will ask the right questions on Irishsetters and Heavys
Discussion Boards, and theyll receive some outstanding advice in reply; yet the very
next day, the same player will announce to the whole world that they have abandoned the
advice that they just received, and have instead chosen to pursue mind-control, telepathy
or thought-transference as the only proper way to pursue of dicesetting profit. Though
they heard or read the answers to the questions that they asked; they choose to ignore it
completely in order to pursue a new, much more plausible (to them) parlay it to
the moon and then collect on your 100th toss method that someone who
hasnt won a dollar in a casino since before ghetto-blasters and mood-rings were
popular; gave to him as the only low-risk, sure-fire way to make a buck in the casino. In
other words, many outstanding questions are asked, but the answers are largely ignored in
the breathless haste of trying to get to the Promised Land of casino profit, without a
wing or even a prayer. At
your local casino, Ill bet theres an endless parade of guys who complain about
their continual losses. Some of their
well-meaning friends might even point out what they are doing wrong, and ways to change
those losing ways. While most of the
perennial-losers understand and acknowledge that the sage advice is probably good, they
almost always go back to their same old losing ways. Invariably,
a lot of aspiring Precision-Shooters do the very same thing. Successful
players will talk about discipline, smart betting-methods, how to seize opportunities when
they appear, and how to mostly avoid losses. The
advice-seeker starts out listening intently, but as soon as he realizes that the answer
contains suggestions that would result in altering his comfortably losing ways
the
attention-meter gets turned off and his eyes start to glaze over. Most
serial-losers wont do anything to correct their ways.
Oh sure, theyll SAY that they are sick of losing, and you know
what
they probably are. However, they
keep making the same bets in the same situation, and they keep getting the same results,
but they nonetheless keep HOPING that someday, somehow, somewhere, theyll get better
outcomes. Or in the alternative, theyll
look for fast, get-rich solutions that just dont work. They
know what it will take to reverse their downward slide, yet they wont implement any
of those improvements, for any reasonable amount of time to properly take effect. Their impatience and lack of discipline causes
more grief and financial-loss than any amount of mediocre dice-shooting ever could. You
have to remember that SKILL lets you MAKE the money, but DISCIPLINE lets you
KEEP it. So
when they ask for advice, they are usually only looking for a co-dependent reply of,
Just keep on doing what youre doing
your luck is bound to change soon,
or Keep on doing your once-a-month practice, and youll improve. Yet all the practicing in the world wont
change their attitude towards how they THINK about the game, and therefore their
poor results wont change either. Dont
misunderstand this as a Mad Professor rant. Its
not. Its simply my way of saying that
if you want to change your current not-so-great-results; then you may have to change the
way you THINK about the game. Okay
this
is me stepping down from the pulpit now. I
hope you didnt get hit with too much fire or brimstone
besides Im not
talking about YOU
right! Stop
Complaining
Start Doing If
you are tired of continually losing; then stop complaining about it and actually DO
something about it. If you
want to stop losing so much when you are playing craps, then you have to start playing the
game differently, and in most cases that means BETTING the game differently. Who
hasnt seen a player with a huge bankroll making huger blunders at the dice table? How many times have you thought to yourself,
If I had that kind of money, I sure would be betting it differently than he
is? Okay,
lets change that context a little bit. How
much would a professional Precision-Shooter change the way that YOU bet with YOUR
money? Now THAT is a good question. Ask
yourself this: If a
professional Precision-Shooter knew what I know about my own current skill-level; how
would he be betting my bankroll?
Ø
Would he be making most of the same bets I
am making now, or would he be more cautious?
Ø
Would he be more aggressive when the right
opportunities came along?
Ø
Would he be cutting certain wagers out of my
betting-regimen completely, or would he be stepping some of them up.
Ø
How would he handle the Steep Regressions,
Presses and Win-Plateaus versus what I am doing now?
Ø
What opportunities is he seeing that
Im somehow missing? What is the first
thing he would change about my betting or my discipline or my whole approach to this game? What are some of the things he wouldnt
touch at all?
Ø
Would he use the same Loss-Limits, Win-Goals
and Exit-Strategies that I currently use? In other
words, What
would the pro be doing that I know deep in my heart that I should be doing too? When you
truthfully answer those questions, I have only one more thing that you have to ask
yourself. Why
arent you doing what you know is the right thing to do? The Shooter Made 11 Points, and You Lost
H-O-W Much Money Betting WITH Him? I
almost choked when I read this posting a while back: I
was next to a guy that I recognized as a good dicesetter.
He had been playing at the table across from me, and apparently had a good
hand there because I heard the entire table clapping for him when he finished shooting. He came over to my table where I had been holding
my own for about forty minutes. I asked how
he had made out, and he said that he was really zoned-in this afternoon, and had now
played at four different tables, and had great rolls at each of them. He added that this was the table and shooting
position where he had started out with the good rolling a couple of hours earlier. When
the dice came to him, I figured on starting out slow to get a feel for his shooting
because the table had been choppy for some time. He
gets his point of 9 established, so I started by Placing the 5 for $10. As I'm still betting the 5 he starts rolling
high-numbers. Nothing under a 6. He got hot
and made ELEVEN PASSES and I'm still sitting on the 5, too superstitious to move it. He hit well over fifty numbers, but none of them
was the 5, so I lost my ten bucks when he finally 7d-Out. What did I do wrong? After
fifty or so box-numbers and eleven PL-Points in a row, I have to ask, how much of a FEEL
do you need before deciding to bet? This
player obviously required a shooter to make MORE than eleven Points and MORE
than 50 box-numbers before betting into a rather obvious Precision-Shooter advantage, and
what was even more obviously a pretty good hand by any standard. This
player knew the shooter, and could have conservatively waited for him to make his first
PL-Point or even his second or perhaps even his third point; before deciding the shooter
was qualified. He could have
waited until the shooter hit the 6 or 8 once or twice or even ten times as his qualifying
trigger. Although that is admittedly a fairly
high threshold of comfort to reach before deciding that the table is to your
liking. In
holding a shooter to such a high standard, especially when you personally know him to be
at least a semi-skilled thrower; youll not only miss the good opportunities, but in
an attempt to salvage some of your dignity from what clearly was a lost opportunity;
youll often try to get in on the very next random-roller hand that appears to
be just as good, but often find that youre quite disappointed when it isnt. That
is, after missing out on one of the great mega-hands, youll lower your when-to-start-betting
standards in hopes that youll be able to re-capture lightning in a bottle on someone
who is much less qualified to help your cause. Often
times, the next shooter is another random-roller who may or may not be able to do the same
as the skilled gentleman that you already knew had at least SOME abilities, and whom was
clearly having a stellar-performance day. If
you see a strong trend, like all the high numbers (8, 9 & 10) showing up when a guy is
making three, four, then five points in fairly quick succession; then how long will you
stand there before you act? When the shooter
throws six, then seven, then eight PL-Points; when does the stop-light turn from
red to green thereby allowing you to deploy your bets on likely
targets? Let
me put it another way. When
a shooter finally 7s-Out after 30 or 40 or 50 or 60 or 70-rolls; are you the one who
says, Oooh, I was just going to bet on that guy. Or are you the one who says, I knew that
he was going to eventually 7-Out, so thats why I didnt bet on him. In
either case, the pessimist is rarely disappointed when a good roll comes to an end; while
the optimist who doesnt pull the trigger is left to wonder when the next opportunity
like that will come along. GETTING
profit means that you have to bet on the most likely opportunities. KEEPING it means avoiding the rest of the crap. Treat
Your Profit the Same Way You Treat Your Bankroll If
youve ever seen the film Gone in 60 Seconds, then you know how fast the
profit that you have struggled to make, can disappear. You
can spend hours at the table just to build up a couple of hundred in profit, yet lose it
all back in what seems like just a few fleeting seconds. Thats
because the edge you have over this game as a Precision-Shooter is not that
large. A small edge means that it can take
quite a bit of time to build up a profit, but again because your margin for error is so
slim; it can be wiped out in mere moments. Since
weve covered Loss-Limits and Win-Goals at length in many of my other articles, I
just want to touch on the subject of how you should treat any of the money that
youve just won. Suffice it to say that
if those two subjects (Loss-Limits and Win-Goals) arent among your strong points,
then a complete re-read of the pertinent articles is definitely in order. Weve
already discussed the fact that once you win any money, it is YOURS, and it
is no longer the casinos. It isnt
found money that you can piss away, it is yours to do with and treat the same
way you would as if it was yours in the first place. You
earned it, its yours now; so dont be so quick in letting the casino get
another shot at winning it back, because I can tell you that when they win YOUR money,
they sure as hell treat it like its THEIRS, and they dont suddenly relax THEIR
rules to make it any easier for YOU to get it back. So
why make it any easier for them? If
you treat your winning-profit like you dont care whether youll lose it; then
there is an EXCELLENT probability that you will. If
the deepest parts of your psyche convince you that you are undeserving and unworthy of
money that youve won instead of earned; then
theres also a good chance that youll unconsciously make decisions that will
contribute to its eventual loss. In most
cases, those losses as dictated, directed and choreographed by your bad decisions, will
happen sooner than later
much, MUCH sooner. As
unbelievable as this may sound, the sad truth is that most gamblers feel unworthy of their
wins, and treat their profits with disdain, indifference and contempt. When they lose it, and they almost ALWAYS do; they
pass it off with an, Ahh, that was the casinos money anyway. Not
only didnt they feel entitled to get it, but they also felt wholly
unworthy of keeping it. They want and need the cathartic
cleansing of losing something they feel they weren't entitled to; and only
after they lose it can they have that fresh and unsoiled, I just had my clock
cleaned
I fought the good fight but the better guy won feeling. Again,
its largely the way you THINK about what it is you do in the casino that will
generally determine how you GET the profit in the first place, and whether or not
youll be able to KEEP it by the time youre ready to leave. The
profit that you make is YOUR money, and you have to treat it as if it is YOUR money,
instead of just being a TEMPORARY CUSTODIAN of it. The
amount of discipline that it takes to CONSISTENTLY walk out of the casino with a profit is
difficult enough. If you don't lock-in the
lions share of your winnings at each session; then those profits have a way of
deteriorating and eroding into LOSSES long before you take the opportunity to leave their
house and go back to yours. Good
Luck and Good Skill at the tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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