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How To Get It, and How To Keep It Turning
a Matchstick into a Lumberyard
In
this series, we are looking at various ways to squeeze more profit out of our plays
WITHOUT resorting to simply using bigger bets or riskier wagers. The
temptation of most casino players is to almost never be satisfied with whatever
theyve picked up in terms of winnings, and to always greedily grab for something
that is unrealistic and almost always out of reach. In
a nutshell, GREED kills their bankroll even though they could often (in fact, almost
always) walk away with a small, but consistent profit.
To them, small profits only look attractive AFTER they have
lost most of their money. In the midst of a
session, they look disappointingly at their small profit as a mere pittance, and they
convince themselves, by looking through greed-tinted glasses and hungry avarice; that they
WANT and NEED to turn a matchstick into a lumberyard. Sadly
for most players, huge wins are RARELY the case; and rarer still is the ability for that
one huge win to offset all the previous losses. So
what does it take to GET the profit, and then KEEP it? If
You Dont Want to Hear the Answer
Dont Ask the Question
In
most cases, all it takes is some minor adjustments to your
betting routine for your current Precision-Shooting skills to generate
more profit when you win, and less significant losses when you lose. Right
off the top, I can tell you that it DOES NOT include making even more high-risk wagers on
Prop-bets than you are making now. In fact,
the first thing I want to show you today, is a quick, easy and HONEST way to keep track of
your Prop and Hop wagers to determine whether they are bankroll-builders or life-sucking
bankroll-parasites. Should
I or Shouldnt I? ALL
aspiring Precision-Shooters have to make ongoing decisions about:
Ø
How
to bet
Ø
When
to bet
Ø
What
to bet on. Many
people like the risk of wagering on those high-paying Proposition bets in the center of
the table. The allure of Horn, Craps, and
World (Whirl) bets, along with straight-up wagers on the individual one-roll Hop bets seem
so attractive to a diehard gambler that they cant picture a session without a steady
diet of high-risk shots at the brass ring. For
skilled dicesetters, those Hops and Props CAN and DO offer a legitimate opportunity that
cannot be ignored. However, for most
up-and-coming (still developing) Precision-Shooters, those center-bets can cancerously eat
away at your bankroll. So
how do you determine whether they can provide consistent profit and validated salvation
for YOU and your current skill-set; or whether they are just a delusional mirage that
blinds you to better, more conservative, but oft-overlooked betting-opportunities? To
do that, we have to scrutinize and carefully inspect where our money is going, and just
what it is doing for us while its out there. Dissecting
Your Losses
So
how do we accurately and honestly determine if those high-risk
bets are actually making us money or losing more than theyre bringing in? Heavy
mentioned that an excellent way to keep track during your session, is to simply put a
predetermined amount of chips in one slot of your chip-rail; then make your
center-of-the-table bets with that money. Any
profits that those Hops and Props bring in are then put back into the same spot. At
the end of your session, simply determine the net-win or net-loss for all the Horn,
Hardway, Craps, Hop and World action that you made. Make
accurate and honest notes after each session, and keep separate track of your wins and
losses from session to session. In fairly
short order, you should be able to determine just how much those Hops and Props are making
for you or losing for you. Simple
solution
YES! But
will most players do it
NO! What
Is Good for You as a Player, May Not be BEST for You as a PERSON In
a casino, just as in life, it is important to always maintain proper perspective and to
keep your wits about you. Sometimes
the decisions we make in a casino environment are totally opposite to how we would treat
our money outside in the real world. Occasionally,
well make choices in a casino that we would never match or even permit in a
non-gaming circumstance. We may NEVER walk
down the street and casually toss dollar after dollar after dollar into the ditch; yet in
a casino-setting, many people will toss dollar after dollar on non-paying Prop and
Hop-bets without having any better prospect of a better return on their
investment. Some
people realize that Prop and Hop bets may not necessarily be best for them or their
bankroll as a good, and upstanding citizen; but as casino gamblers, those same Hops and
Props satisfy their need for the action and risk that they crave as players. On
the other hand, if you have validated your Precision-Shooting skill and you have matched
your bets to best suit that talent; then obviously you should use it to your advantage. In
that case, a skilled Precision-Shooter will use those same dollars as a skilled sniper
uses just one or two bullets to pick off selected targets.
With meticulous precision and accuracy, he uses a small amount of
ammunition, yet achieves maximum effect. So
too, you have to determine whether you can use a small amount of money (ammo) to snipe out
some quick and effective profits, or whether youll indiscriminately spray and blast
bullets all over the place in the hope of hitting a random target. You
can be a highly-trained sniper who slips in, gets the job done, and then slips out of
sight; or you can be a gang-banger spraying bullets all over a crowded school-yard. Its your money
its your
choice
and its your decision
so fire away! To
that end, you have to figure out whether Props and Hops are a legitimate part of your
money-making process, or if they are merely something that expensively feeds a ravenous
gambling appetite. Just
as you need to determine the relative strengths and merits of your Precision-Shooting by
way of your most dominant Signature-Numbers; so too should you determine whether your
current betting-methods are the best for you and your bankroll. The trade-off is that the reduced thrill that you
derive from making LESS high-risk wagers; is often and repeatedly offset by the increased
satisfaction of ending up with MORE end-of-session profit. If
impatience and greed constantly dogs your casino-play; then you have to make the
ever-difficult choice between retaining more profits, or maintaining
higher thrills, but continuing to suffer through larger losses. Again,
if you determine that your Precision-Shooting does indeed give you a sustainable and
EXPLOITABLE advantage over the Hops and Props; then by all means you should be using them
to bolster your winnings. However, if
honestly measuring the impact of those bets on your wallet determines that they
arent healthy for your bankroll; then maybe
just maybe, they arent
healthy for you as a person either. Finding
the Source of Your Profit
When
a forensic accounting team is trying to unravel a sophisticated corporate financing
scheme, they have one mantra: FOLLOW
THE MONEY! Its
the same thing with your current Precision-Shooting skills. Find out WHERE the profit is coming from
then
FOLLOW IT
thats where you are likely to find even MORE OF IT! I
dont know where your profit comes from or where your losses go to, but I can give
you a couple of places to start looking. So
lets round up the usual suspects and find out if theres legitimately-earned
money in their pockets, or whether they are the thieving bastards weve long
suspected they are. During
each session, ask yourself:
Ø
How
much are you spending on Proposition bets, including Hardways, Any Craps, Big Red, World
(Whirl), Horns, Buffalos, Straight-Up and Hop bets
and what is the NET-Profit that
they generate or the net-loss that they take?
Ø
What
percentage of your bankroll is being spent on Signature Numbers and how steep is the
regression that you use after one hit? Are
you locking in an early profit, or do you often submit to the temptation of
just
one more hit?
Ø
How
much do you win or lose on random-rollers? Are
you betting on them just to BET, or do you employ some wagering methods that keep you at
or near the break-even point. If you find
that your random-roller betting is costing you money, do you realize that your own
Precision-Shooting has to be all that much better just to pay for the
pleasure of betting on everyone else?
Ø
How
much is spent on tokes and schmoozing with the cocktail waitress? If its part of the game and a part of where
your gambling stake goes to; then you also have to factor in that cost too. Are you too busy focusing on TITS instead
of TRENDS? This
is by no means a complete list of where to look for where your gambling-stake is going. Instead, it should give you a couple of places to
start that search. If
you dont know where your money is going, youll never accurately and honestly
know where the real NET-profit is actually coming from. The
Cost of Experience
Sometimes
we have to personally endure the pain and suffering before we actually believe
the Do NOT put your hands into the spinning fan blades warning sign or
the Do NOT put your hand on the moving chain-saw blade decals. In
some cases, it may stem from our always question authority mindset, or
its due to an omnipotent feeling that
that only applies to everyone
else in the world
Im the rare exception
so it cant happen to me
mentality. So
it is with Precision-Shooting and the required conservative betting that goes hand-in-hand
with consistent and predictable profitability. We
can read ALL the books, ALL the articles and listen to ALL of the expert advice; yet most
players often choose to ignore the soundly-based experience that other pros have
gained and shared. They hope and expect to be
immune to the vagaries and pitfalls that beset ALL others who came before them. Therefore, they reason, they can ignore the
experience of others, cause it aint gonna happen to me. Unfortunately,
the cost of experience for them will be huge, expense and ongoing for as long as they
maintain that train of thought. Whoever said,
If you think the cost of education is high, just wait until you see how much
ignorance costs you; was right on the money. Self-Experience
Brings Self-Truth
Hopefully Sooner than Later The
thing with experience is that we give a high-value to what we endure ourselves, yet
substantially discount the prior advice of those who have gone before us and the advice of
those who have experienced pretty much the same thing.
Wouldnt
it be wonderful if we could tap into the experience of other skilled Precision-Shooters
and AVOID all or most of the pitfalls they endured; thereby increasing the speed at which
we can get to sustainable revenue from this game? Happily,
almost everything you need to learn to do that is right here on Irishsetters site. Sadly,
most players SAY that they are willing to reap the rewards of that experience without
having to endure the heartache, yet MOST will fall back into their old losing ways time
and time again. Notwithstanding the fact that
their previous methods didnt work; they would rather lose to a devil they know; than
to take the time and make the commitment to fully develop their Precision-Shooting skills,
utilize tailored-to-bankroll betting-methods, and cultivate the iron-clad discipline
required to GET and KEEP sustainable profits. Eventually
(hopefully), through self-experience (and devastating, on-going losses), they DISCOVER
that the good advice was right on target in the first place. The
student of the game sometimes has to undergo and suffer their own baptism-by-fire
before they realize the value and wisdom of someone else's experience and advice. I too went through exactly the same thing myself;
so when I suggest some moves that will save you some of that gut-wrenching pain
I
know that most will ignore it, and only a few will make it a permanent part of their game. That's human nature...its too bad that
"experience" has to cost so much! Okay,
so once we GET all that hard-earned experience; how do we KEEP the
discipline to help us stay the course? Discipline
to Stay the Course Discipline
is BY FAR the single most important attribute you can have in the casino (as well as being
pretty important in life as well). We not
only need it for consistent winning in the first place, but its vitally necessary
for you to be able to hang onto those winnings when you are ready to leave the casino. Remember,
this is about GETTING IT, and KEEPING IT. We
have to weave an impermeable fabric that is structured with components that have been
matched and blended in such as way as to give us the most profit,
with the least risk, and the highest chances for sustainable
success. So
lets look at those elements and see how they fit together: Ø
Discipline
- Without it, NO advantage will ever be big enough to consistently win. It's necessary 100% of the time, and at
full-strength ALL OF THE TIME. Ø
Precision-Shooting
- Without this, you are NEVER in a predictable or sustainable advantage-position at the
craps table. Ø
Betting
Strategy
- Without proper betting-methods, you will never GET to the CONSISTENT profit. Ø
Money
Management
- Without proper management of your money, you will never get to KEEP your profit. Ø
Adequate
Bankroll
- Without enough bullets for your casino-battles; youll almost never live long
enough to see the dawn. Sufficient money
gives you breathing room, because without breath, nothing else matters. Inadequate bankroll means inadequate chances of
winning. Thats another simple truth
that is often underestimated. Once
you have all five of those attributes working in PERFECT HARMONY and at full power, then
you can start to work on the other important aspects of winning, like Patience, Attitude
and Conditioning. We take all of those
components and weave them together in a bulletproof fabric that is flexible enough to bend
with changing threats and opportunities; yet strong enough to resist the worst streaks,
urges, trends and temptations. Yes,
I STILL Struggle with Discipline Having
said all of that, I can tell you that I still struggle with discipline on a daily basis. Sometimes
I hold strong and resist the urge, while occasionally Ill cave in to her seductive
siren call. Sometimes it pays off big time,
but other times; greed and luck have a good laugh at my expense. When I cave in on discipline, its often an
indication that I am not happy with my own shooting for that particular session. Therefore, I am more likely to seek out
higher-risk betting opportunities on less-qualified or totally unqualified random-rollers. Instead of cutting the session short and
determining what is going wrong with my shooting, and determining just how to fix it;
instead Ill try to force a win using a less sure and much more risky route by
betting more money on random-rollers. Unfortunately
that route often leads to a loss. For me,
its not only unprofessional; its downright frustrating. While
its true that I dont cave in nearly as often as I did a decade or even a year or two
ago; the temptation is ALWAYS there. In fact,
I have found a direct correlation (link) between increased temptation and my own poor
dicesetting performance. The worse Im
doing with the dice during any given session; the higher the temptation to try to make
money off of someone elses random luck. Instead
of fixing what it wrong, Ill seek salvation at the hand, whim and luck of others. Dumb moves like that often lead to dumb losses. Whats
a Boy To Do? How
do we deal with the whole discipline thing so that we can get enough
of it in the first place, and then keep our resolve for as long as needed? Heres
a few things to hang your hat on: Ø
Your
bankroll will be in a PLUS position at some time during almost EVERY session. Look back and consider that even during your most
devastating losses, there were times when you were actually ahead of the game; yet you
chose not to quit with a small profit. Ø
MOST
players will lose back ALL OF THEIR PROFIT plus a healthy portion of their session buy-in,
and theyll do that time after time after time.
They GOT the profit, but chose not to KEEP it. Ø
Discipline
is a CONSTANT struggle for EVERY player, including myself. Ø
If
you determine how high your profit normally rises to during an average session; then you
can set a REALISTIC win-goal and quitting point. Ø
If
you reach that point, you can lock up the profit and end your session; or you can employ
John Patrick's "Up and Pull" or "Excess and Guarantee"
methods of RETAINING your profit and NOT playing it back.
All three of those approaches are not only valid in helping you KEEP your
profit, but theyre good for developing and improving your discipline too. Ø
When
a player decides that they want to WIN more than they need to PLAY, they
make the conscience decision to be satisfied with small and frequent wins; instead of
larger, but more frequent losses. Why Talented Precision-Shooters Dont Make MORE Money I
get asked this question quite often. Some
who ask it are infidels who dont believe in Precision-Shooting in the first place,
and therefore ask the question, quite rhetorically, in a snide and sarcastic way. Skilled
dicesetters ask the same question, but do so out of frustration. Even though theyve determined that they
themselves have a measurable advantage over the casino, they find that it is incredibly
difficult to make a sustainable profit of any size or note. The
reason most Precision-Shooters DON'T make more money is because: Ø
They
bet way too much, and way too frequently on random-rollers and unqualified dicesetters. Ø They pre-load their bets on their own rolls too early, and they press their bets too aggressively. Ø
They
make too many Prop and Hop bets that are not consistent enough money-makers. Ø
They
don't lock-up an early profit by way of Steep Regressions. Ø They play back too much of their profit in hopes of building a lumberyard out of a matchstick. Ø
They
play too long and without proper mental attitude or discipline. The
reason that there are not more Precision-Shooters out there making outstanding amounts of
money is not because it CANT be done. It is because the amount of
dedication, commitment, determination, maturity, and discipline that is required for
steady profit, is just too much effort for most people to make. Suggested
Reading If
you are interested in propping up your resolve and commitment, or maintaining your
self-control and discipline; I would kindly suggest the following articles: Ø
My
four-part Can't Win For Losing
series. Ø
My
two-part
Mama Said There Would Be Days Like This series. Ø
Irishsetters
superb Discipline & The Art Of Precision Shooting,
and the equally outstanding Fail. Fail Again. Fail Better.
article. Ø
In
addition, I would strongly recommend my
Flushing Money
Down The Random-Roller Toilet article,
as well as the four-part Discipline, Character & Consistency
series. Ø
For
a look at your game from an entirely different perspective, I would urge EVERY aspiring
dicesetter to read Heavys exceptional The Crap Between Your Ears
article. Ø
Finally,
if you are TIRED of LOSING despite the fact that you usually get ahead during some point
in most sessions, then I can heartily recommend the
D'ya Wanna Win, or D'ya Wanna Gamble?
series. It
is CRITICAL that you realize that discipline is something that has to be developed just
like your Precision-Shooting skills. Yes, I
STILL struggle with the discipline-thing EVERY SINGLE DAY; yet I continue to develop and
improve it, just as I do with my dicesetting skills and betting-methods. In
a phrase
that is how you GET IT, and that is how you KEEP IT. Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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