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How To Get It, and How To Keep It If
you are frustrated with the difficulty of attaining steady profitability
even though your roll-tracking indicates that you DO have an advantage over the house; or
you are tired of making a profit at some point during most of your sessions, but end up with
little or nothing to show for it when you finally cash out
then youve
come to the right place. This
series is all about how to KEEP more of what is yours
and
how to GET more of what is theirs. In
Part Ten,
we looked at how
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Profit-discovery
is invariably tied to self-discovery.
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When
you break your own discipline-rules while you are at the casino tables
hope that
things DONT work out.
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When
you give up discipline, you give up control of your money.
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Revisit
your worst losses and learn from them. If you
ignore mistakes from the past, then you are destined to repeat them.
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When
you look at your roll-stats, you can pick out the problems and shortcomings, but
dont be too overwrought to see the opportunities that are often hidden in amongst
the troubles.
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Detaching
from fear and greed allows you to make
bets that are most likely to hit; and keeps you away from the ones that you only hope and
wish you could.
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Your
attitude towards your money as well as your skill in betting it, determines
if youll make more or lose more. Today,
our money-making sight-seeing trip takes us a little further down that GET IT and KEEP
IT road
Precision-Shooting
Facilitates Your Betting
Precision-Betting REWARDS Your Shooting Before
you begin to cast a new betting-plan that is best suited to your shooting, you may
want to ask yourself some key questions. The
answers may uncover hidden profit-opportunities buried within your CURRENT (but still
improving) results
and produce more profits from that very same skill-set. Ask
yourself... Out
of 20 hands, how many are Point-then-7-Out hands? If
you know this number, then you can quickly decide if a Steep Regression is right for you. It
can also determine how STEEP of a regression you can afford (or will need) so that
an occasional quick 7-Out doesn't destroy your overall shooting-advantage (or your overall
profit-edge). For
example, if you only suffer through three or four quick-outs over twenty in-casino hands;
then an early and steep regression has to at least be considered. Further,
it will tell you the best ratio for your Initial (pre-regression) Bet versus the size and
distribution of your regressed action. For
example:
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You
might start off with $110-Inside but after one, two or three hits at that original
value
a regression down to a simple six-dollar 6 and 8 (instead of the traditional
$22-Inside) may be called for
followed by an aggressive progression on those two
numbers; or...
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You
might find an across-the-board pyramid-structure (like we discussed at great length in
You
Cant Shine A Cow-Patty
Or Can You) on your Initial Bet ($25
on the 4 & 10, $35 on the 5 & 9, $48 on the 6 & 8) regressed after one or two
hits to a similar but lower-dollar version of the same pyramid ($5 on the 4 & 10, $10
on the 5 & 9, $18 on the 6 & 8) would work to a T when matched to your
current skills. You
have to put the effort INTO figuring out what betting-methods are best for you
in order to get the most profit OUT of your current dice-influencing skill-set. Taking
your last 20 hands, what was the average number of rolls-per-hand?
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For
example, if it takes us (on average) eight Point-cycle throws for our betting approach to
properly work (and to extract the amount of profit that we need to sustain it); then a
seven-roll average will always leave us wanting.
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If
we know that we make (on average) about seven rolls during our Point-cycle; then we have
to take a critical look at how much money we are leaving exposed on the layout after our
sixth p-c toss.
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Though
that DOES NOT mean that we stop betting when we get near that average-roll length; it DOES
mean that we want to have ALL of our currently-exposed bets TOTALLY paid for...AND we want
to have a reasonable profit ALSO LOCKED UP by the time we reach that point.
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If
our hand continues past that point (and in 50% of the cases, it will); THEN we can look at
building some ADDITIONAL profit on top of what we already have retained. By
taking this approach, we can remain calm yet intently-focused on the ONE thing that keeps
the profit rolling...the VERY NEXT throw! By
looking at our average number of rolls-per-hand, we can figure out what will work for us
MOST OF THE TIME. That means that well
also be able to garner a profit from each one of our hands MOST OF THE TIME too.
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This
approach lets us use the consistency of our current skill to make money almost
every time we pick up the dice. Ill
quickly add that some well-known gaming-figures dont subscribe to this concept
because they dont see the relevance of using the average of what your
current skill-set presently produces. They
take the every hand is independent and should be judged and bet accordingly
approach. While that tactic has some merit
when you are in the middle of a hand and making bet-adjustments on the fly; I prefer to
start each hand with a workable betting-plan (that our current average roll-length
dictates); that will put more money into your pocket more often. You can still make any mid-hand bet-adjustments
and corrections if they are called for
and still play with the firm knowledge and
confidence that almost all of your hands will generate at least some profit. To
my mind, if you dont know how long most of your hands will last, then you are
probably either under-betting their potential and not utilizing the full
power of the edge that youve built up over the house; or you are over-betting
your skills and leaving way too much money on the table and not putting enough of it into
your rack by the time the 7-Out shows up. In
either case, if you disregard your average hand-length when you are structuring a
tailored-to-skill betting-approach; then you are making it much more difficult on yourself
to make a profit in the first place
and to keep it once youve got it. Once
you know the answer to that question; then you can ask yourself
Again,
using the last 20 in-casino hands that youve thrown; how many times did EACH of the
box-numbers (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10) appear during each hand? For
this one you not only want to know the average, but you also want to know the
count". That is, how many hands
saw one to five box-numbers show up during your Point-cycle...how many produced six to ten
box-numbers...how many hands delivered-up between eleven to twenty box-numbers...and how
many produced more than that? The
task here is to find out how many box-numbers show up during the Point-cycle of your
average hand, and which ones show up most often
along with determining which numbers
show up as tightly-recurring groups, clusters or strings.
Obviously
this is a little different than figuring out which ones are your most dominant
Signature-Numbers, but it is directly related to them simply because, in the process, we
get to find out not only WHAT our S-N's are, but also HOW MANY of EACH box-numbers we will
produce during an average hand. The
significance of this is clear
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We
find out again (but from a slightly different perspective) how many rolls we have
in which to weave our dice-setting magic, and where our money is best deployed
during that average-hand exposure-time.
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In
the process, it may help to steer us away from traditional (but not
necessarily net-productive) bets that needlessly dilute our overall profit.
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For
example, a traditional Inside-wager (5, 6, 8 and 9) that produces several hits on the 5, 6
and 8, but turns in a less-than-average appearance of the 9, may in fact be unnecessarily
dragging down your overall revenue even though most players find it more convenient
to call out an Inside-bet than it is to call out the individual wagers for their three
highest-persistence numbers.
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In
this case, convenience is costing you money, and diminishing your overall revenue.
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Sometimes,
all it takes is just one non-effective wager to turn what should have been a
profitable hand
into a money-losing one. Do
that often enough
and the entire session turns out to be a net-loser even though it
didnt have to be.
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To
my mind
if a bet isnt hitting often enough to PROFITABLY sustain
itself
then it shouldnt be made. In
the process of figuring out how many box-numbers are showing up during our average
Point-cycle (and how frequently each one of them is occurring); we sometimes discover that
certain groups of numbers show up in regularly recurring clusters, groups or one-right-after-the-other
strings.
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This
may be as simple as discovering that Heavys See a Horn
Bet a Horn
idea holds incredible profit-potential for your current skill-set.
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It
may mean that the appearance of a certain low-occurrence non-dominant number indicates
that it or its equally minor-emergence twin (sister-number) will show up
on the very next roll
and perhaps the roll after that too. If you take a look back at You Had To
Be There Part One and Part Two,
youll see exactly what I mean. Each
discovery leads us to consider bets that we may not have considered before
or at
least to consider some bet-groupings and pairings that fall outside of the normal Inside,
Across, Outside, Horn, World and Field bet-calls that most players are used to seeing in a
more traditional bet-groupings-and-pairings environment. The
idea of this exercise is for you to discover that your advantage does not always
conveniently fall into the traditional wagering-approaches that we are most familiar with. In
the process, you may find for example that the 5, 8, 10 and 11 is where your most
frequently recurring profit can be found
or you may discover that the 4, 6, 9 and 12
show up in strangely consecutive patterns when you use a certain dice-set (even though the
Distribution Chart doesnt indicate that they should). You
have to look behind what the charts indicate that you SHOULD be getting
and
take a close look at what you actually ARE getting.
Your current influencing-skills often hold the key to additional right-now
profit that you may be missing out on. Obviously
an advantage-player NEEDS that information in order to properly structure a
tailored-to-skill wagering-plan that includes bets that are right for HIM (and his CURRENT
talents and bankroll) based on what he generally delivers instead of what he HOPES
he could produce. This
approach means that you work with what your talents give you (while you continually strive
to improve them). Answering
those critical questions helps you build a profitable foundation upon which you can scale
up the value of your bets that produce the most consistent winnings
while
concurrently keeping your money off the ones that dont. Armed
with that, you can ask yourself
Is
the betting-method that is right for someone else...right for ME? If
you've had a chance to read How To Get It, and How To Keep It - Part 8, you'll
understand EXACTLY where I'm coming from with this one. For
example, if the stack 'em, don't rack 'em, parlay-each-PL Come-out-winner method
works for you; then by all means use it. Or
if Bigkahnmans Army March works for you; then by all means use it too. No
matter what method another player uses, you have to evaluate it based on whether it will
work for you and your current skill-level (as well as your current
bankroll and risk-tolerance). You
have to seriously look at how often ANY approach will work for you with your CURRENT
skill-set, as opposed to how often it will fail. If
for example, BKMs Army March worked beautifully for you one time back in the
summer of 96; you have to objectively evaluate whether the money that youve
spent on it ever since then, is worth the cost
or whether modifying it to suit your
current shooting-skills would produce a steadier profit a little more often. If
you do the math and it WORKS within your current dice-results, then by all means use it. However,
if you apply that method (or ANY other wagering-approach) to the numbers
that YOU have been producing and it doesn't work; then perhaps it may not be right
for you at this time. Though it doesn't mean that you should personally outlaw it
and never use it again; it does mean that you should continually evaluate how effective
your current wagers are
including the ones you make just for the fun of it. Your
current in-casino results will TELL you LOUD AND CLEAR exactly where
your money should be wagered, and precisely where it should be precluded from. It's just a matter of asking yourself the right
questions
and then following through and listening to what your current skills are
telling you. If
You Are Afraid Of The Answer Many
players wont go through that exercise, simply because they know that they wont
like what the answers would indicate. It
would also mean that theyd have to face up to the fact that their present wagers
arent synched-up with what their average-hand is currently producing. As
a savvy dice-influencer, you have to look at the rolls you are making
and the numbers
they are producing
and measure them against the efficacy (effectiveness) of the bets
that you have on the layout right now
or the bets that you know in your
heart-of-hearts you SHOULD be making but arent
as well as the ones that
are active on the layout, but SHOULDNT be there at all. If
you are frustrated with the difficulty of attaining steady profitability
even though your roll-tracking indicates that you DO have an advantage over the house;
then you have to ask yourself some critical questions
and take the appropriate action
when your current roll-results give you their honest answer. To
my mind, that pretty much captures how to KEEP more of what is yours
and
how to GET more of what is theirs. Good
Luck & Good Skill at the Tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The
Mad Professor
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