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Streaks, Trends and Opportunity A young blonde went
to Las Vegas. She played in the casino for about an hour, but lost heavily, so she went up
to her hotel room. After settling in, she was
thirsty and went to the soda machine in the hall. She
put $1.00 in and a Pepsi came out, she put another $1.00 in and another Pepsi came out,
she put one last $1.00 in and another Pepsi came out. A man was walking
down the hall and she asked him if he had change for $20.
He said, “Sure, what are you doing?" The blonde said: "Duh!! Winning!!!" In This Article
We have a look at
both Streaks and Trends:
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What they are.
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How to find them.
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The
“Math-guys” view.
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The Players view.
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How to recognize
them.
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Finding trends and
riding streaks.
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Adjusting risk to
suit your style.
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Conservative -vs- Aggressive
approaches.
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How
“smart-money” bets.
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How I profit on
trends and streaks. Definitions
Trend: (noun).
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The general direction
in which something tends to move.
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A general tendency or
inclination.
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To extend, incline,
or veer in a specified direction. Streak: (noun).
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An inherent, often
unexpected and contrasting quality.
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A brief run or
stretch, as of luck.
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An unbroken series,
as in wins or losses.
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An unbroken series of
events. My Interpretation
As you can see,
these two words are NOT interchangeable. Just
because a table is trending “warm” does not mean that you are involved in a
streak. On the other hand,
an ice-cold trending table can be interrupted by a couple of players who throw flame-hot
streaks of two or three-dozen Inside Place numbers without ever repeating their Pass-Line
Point. In that case, “Don’t”
bettors still profit, but so do the savvy and careful Place bettors who wait to see how
each new hand develops before jumping in with two fists full of chips. It all depends which
side of the streak or trend you are on, and whether you want to fight it; go with the
flow, or simply stand there and do nothing. In either case, it
doesn’t guarantee that you will make a profit if you bet with the shooter or against
him. Trends tend to tell us:
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Where we have been.
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Where we are now.
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Where we may be going. Streaks tend to tell us:
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What happened in the past.
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What appears to be happening now.
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What may happen in the future. Math Guys &
Gamblers Agree…Streaks Occur in Craps
There are two
opposite schools-of-though that share the same data, but interpret it quite differently. The “Math” View: “Math
guys” will tell you that streaks do occur, and that they fall within the realm of
standard deviation. They will also tell you
that at the end of infinity, all the dice-numbers that are supposed to roll, will have
“evened out” to their mathematically-perfect expected rate-of-occurrence. Before the end of eternity (sic), they agree that
there will be streaks, but you will never be able to predict:
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When a streak will
happen.
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How long the streak
will last.
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When the streak
will end. In addition to all
of that, they will opine that there is no such thing as “trends”, and instead,
there will be short, medium and long streaks that are interspersed by an equal
number of opposite streaks of short, medium and long length. For example, you
may have two losses, and three wins followed by two losses.
Then you have two wins and four losses, followed by three wins, three
losses, four wins, and then one more loss. You
have 12 each on the win and loss column, and neither side dominated. If
“choppiness” is a trend, then that particular sequence embodies it, yet some
people would suggest that there were indeed some mini-streaks in there that most astute
players (both “do” and “don’t” sides) could derive profit from. In “Part
Two” of this article, we will look at several betting methods that will
consistently bring you out on the positive side of the profit equation when you
encounter choppy tables. Keep in mind that
you will be in the middle of a choppy series about 70% of the time you are at the tables,
so it behooves you to learn a few tricks of the pro crap players trade. The Players View: Savvy players see
the “math guys” standard deviation stuff from a different perspective. They reason that
streaks, both good and bad, occur all of the time. And while there is no way of knowing
when one will occur, they are generally smart enough to know when they are in the middle
of one. It is like the Supreme Courts opinion
on the meaning of “pornography”. While
they agree that it is hard to define, they certainly “know
it” when they see it. Most
seasoned-gamblers will tell you that the most astute players pick up on a trend BEFORE
it becomes a streak and THAT is where the real money is to be made. They’ll say that the smart money sees
the streak coming (by way of a trend) and the players who are most aware of the
trend (and the developing streak), jump on it fairly early and profit the most. Is it a Bird, Is it a
Plane, or is it a STREAK?
When you have
randomness you also have streaks, but most people only recognize when:
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They are in the middle
of a streak, or,
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Near the end
of an easily recognized trend. Why is that? Most people have to
see a number of “similar-outcome” random results before they determine that
there is indeed a “trend” developing, or that a certain set of
“similar-outcome” sequences have matured into a “streak”. If you use a sports
analogy, it’s easy to see:
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If a baseball team
has won 7 of their last 10 games, then we could probably say that they are trending toward
the winning side. On a craps table, we would
probably describe this as a “warm” trend.
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If a baseball team
has won 6 games in a row, then we could say that they are on a “winning streak”. On a craps table, that would equate to “hot
streak”. But if a team wins
approximately half of their games without any seeming rhyme or reason to when they win or
how they lose, then we call them the Chicago White Sox (81 wins, 81 losses, .500 pct). Why It’s
Easier to Recognize a Streak Than a Trend When a player has
thrown eight consecutive Pass-Line winners, it doesn’t take a genius to know that you
are seeing a “hot” streak. Likewise,
if the dice circle the table three times without anyone making a Pass-Line winner, or
anyone throwing more than three or four rolls apiece; then it doesn’t take a genius
to know that your are seeing a “cold” streak. Unfortunately, trends
are subtler than streaks. So how do
we see them better, and what do we do when we see them? Some of the
answers to that question are found in my
Raising Your
Consciousness and Fattening Your Wallet series of
articles. At the craps table, there are
usually substantial profit opportunities lurking nearby, you just have to make
disciplined, unemotional betting decisions and controlled, intelligent strategy choices to
obtain that profit. We’ll cover those
tactics and strategy thoroughly in “Part Two” of this article. Finding TRENDS,
and Riding STREAKS Knowledgeable
players believe that the secret to profitable gambling is in anticipating and exploiting
those streaks, and avoiding all but the luckiest (or most skillful) of shooters. They also advise that you should keep playing a streak
until lady luck stops blowing kisses up your leg. On the contrary,
math guys will say that even if you increase your bets when you hit a streak, you can
expect to lose as much as guys who risk the same total, but never vary their bets at all. Of course, my substantial bankroll begs to differ
with them. Then again, most of the math-guys
will never realize that, because they are over at the BJ-21 tables getting their dicks
handed back to them on the casinos un-comped standard-deviation platter. Some people like to
bet AGAINST a streak or a trend. Dark-siders
will always rely on the old saw, “Everyone 7’s-Out eventually”. While the bright-eyed right-sider will always try
to find hope and salvation in the, “It’s got to turn around sometime”
prayer. In both cases,
their statements are correct, but their bankrolls usually show the nasty scars of too many
lost battles. Mostly, the
“trend-spotters” will tell you that they jumped too early on
what “looked like” a trend, only to see it peter-out or reverse too quickly. Or they will admit that they loaded too
much money on what turned out to be a short-lived and
unprofitable streak. Often times, a
dark-siders max-Odds “everyone-always-7’s-Out” smugness fades away when
some unlikely “he-looks-like-a-born-lose” type of character unleashes an
unexpected bunch of DP-destroying Pass-Line winners. In both cases,
ignoring the trend or bucking a streak can be murder for your money. Tracking Trends and
How People Bet Them
Some seasoned
players each use their own trend-tracking methods to determine:
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When to begin
betting.
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When to increase
their bets.
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When to reduce
their bets.
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When to call their
bets “off”.
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When to call their
bets back “on”.
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When to take down
all removable bets.
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When to change the
“side” they are betting on.
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When to abandon the
game completely. It is this type of
trend-tracking that some players rely upon to decide virtually all of their betting-moves
at the craps table. Following that same logic, the gambling-guys also reason that the most
astute amongst them can predict with just when a streak should, or likely will, come to an
end. Again, in “Part Two”
we will take a closer look at those methods, and the indicators which “trigger”
bet-changes. Adjusting Risk to
Suit your Style. Probably the most
difficult task is determining WHEN a trend is actually developing into a streak that can
be capitalized on. For example, an unbroken
string of one-win IS NOT a streak. On the
other hand, it may be the beginning of a “warming” trend, but is it too soon to
switch sides, start betting or to press your current bets higher? While each random
throw is unrelated to one another, it doesn’t mean that a string of unrelated throws
can’t or won’t end up forming a discernable trend or streak. Of course, it also doesn’t mean that
it will. Some people will
start pressing-up their bets after a shooter has thrown two Pass-Line winners, while
others will wait for a couple more wins. Like
I said earlier, trends confirm what has happened in the past; what is happening now, and
possibly (and hopefully) what will continue to happen in the future. Of course there is no way of knowing whether we
are in the beginning, middle or just about at the end of a trend or streak. Some people make a
ton of money when the tables are hot. They
press-up their bets like there is no tomorrow. Risk-oriented
players will seek ever-higher profits without locking-up much in the way of actual profit. In the hope and pursuit of higher-profit, they
hope against hope that this is THE hand that will reach mythical proportions in both its
length and profit. Unfortunately that is
rarely the case. Astute players will
bank profit in their rail with virtually every hit. They
know that having more money exposed on the layout means the LESS locked-in profit they
will have when the inevitable 7-Out shows up. While the astute
player presses their bets, they do so in a more reserved and methodical way. This is a fairly conservative way to make more and
more money, while still taking ever-increasing advantage of a hot streak. It takes a mature
and disciplined adult to make carefully balanced on-going decisions as a roll progresses. Early greed leads to an early
bankroll grave. If you bet
too aggressively, too early, your money generally erodes before
you catch a REAL streak that you can pummel and squeeze into the sweet-nectar of
substantial profit. I’ve used
“hot” streaks in my examples, but the savvy player can also take equal advantage
of a cold-streak. He realizes that sometimes
the dice will 7-Out with frightening regularity. In
that event, a player can choose to buck the trend, or bet with it or stay on the
sidelines. The professional player will make
either of the last two choices. He’ll
either bet with the trend, or he’ll keep his money safely in his rack until the table
turns to a friendlier trend that he feels is worthy of betting on. Why
Conservative-Betting Beats Aggressive/Impatient-Betting If winning money
consistently (without huge wins and huger losses) is too conservative for you, then you
may want to quietly do some soul-searching to determine just why you are gambling in a
casino. If the pleasure you
get out of PLAYING outweighs the importance of WINNING; then go ahead and bet on anyone
who picks up the dice. However, please
understand that I take the opposite view of that. I am in a casino to
make a profit, and when I win (19-out-of-20 sessions) I find it both pleasurable and
entertaining. For me, losing doesn’t
carry any pleasure. If it does for you, then
perhaps the catharsis (the washing and cleansing effect) that losing has on you is exactly
the type of punishment and unworthiness that your soul, psyche and conscience craves. If you use casino-gaming as an expensive, yet
entertaining hobby, then go ahead and enjoy the “cost” of your hobby. I play to win, and I play for the profit that my
winning brings in. Now THAT is fun! If I lose, then I
am certainly not pleased, and I certainly don’t find it entertaining. On the other hand, if you enjoy losing, then
enjoy yourself because the casino is a perfect place for that. However, that would lead me to ask you exactly
why you are reading a website like this. Just because you
CAN bet on every player who picks up the dice, there is no rule that says you HAVE TO. I’ll have a
much more detailed look at the psychology of winning and the mind-set
of losing in my upcoming “Eager To Play…Eager To Lose”
article. How the Smart Money
Bets I don’t know
about you, but if I only bet on hot streaks (and hot shooters) and I lay off all of the
other random-rollers, I invariably end up with MORE money, not less! Even though I bet
less dollars, I end up with much more profit.
That isn’t a
coincidence, and it certainly isn’t because I’m on a twelve-year lucky streak. It’s part of my well-formulated method that
helps keep more of my bankroll as MINE, and helps convert some of the casinos bankroll
into MY profit. The excitement for
me is in the winning, not in the chase. Some people
complain that my betting methods are too conservative for their liking. I can understand that; but I HATE losing my money. It does not mean that I am afraid
to bet; it’s just that I am very selective on WHO I bet on, WHEN I bet on them and
HOW I bet on them. Being selective on
how you use your money is just plain smart. Betting on every
player is exactly what the casino wants you to do. That is precisely how they grind almost everyone
into casino dust. Professional craps players
know how to avoid that pitfall. Pros seek out the
“hot” hands, and are able to stay in the game without losing much, if any, money
on the choppy-trends of random-rollers. They
recognize a trend that is showing some promising “warmth”, and they are savvy
enough to jump on it as it turns into a bona-fide hot streak. It is that type of conservative play that can
uniquely position you to make a very decent living from this game. While I might miss
out on some short-lived trends, I mostly avoid the constant and costly choppiness of most
tables. Remember:
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Astute players pick
up on a trend before it becomes a streak.
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Savvy players
usually, but not always, see a streak coming by way of the prevailing trend.
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Players who bet
intelligently on VALID trends and streaks tend to profit most consistently. Part of my longevity
in being able to play this game full-time, has come from catching some truly spectacular
“hot-streak” hands. I seek out and
exploit hot streaks as much as possible. I
actually find them, and bet on them with a regularity that would surprise most casual
observers. Again, we’ll take a
very close at that in “Part Two”. It is important to
remember:
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The less I chase
formative, but undeveloped trends, the more money I end up with at the end of a session. That simply means that you don’t bet
too early or too much on what looks like a developing trend or
streak.
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The less I bet on
wildly gyrating choppy tables, the more money I end up with at the end of a session. A lot of times, the best bet is keeping your money
securely parked in your rail.
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If you insist on
wagering on choppy tables, then your bets should be at their rock-bottom minimum until
something tangible develops (by way of a strong trend or a firm streak). Of course, you can blithely ignore my advice, and
continue your losing ways…after all, it is your money…for now. When the Music is
Over What a player does
when the hot streak is over is just as important as what they did while it was happening. Do you stick around hoping that the hot trend
continues with the next shooter, or do you color-in and get the hell outta’ Dodge? It doesn’t
really matter if you consider yourself a right-side-bettor or a darksider. For any player who stays in the game and
continually bucks a streak or a trend, the results are usually the same. Bankroll-devastation is an equal opportunity
destroyer. What to DO,
When…
In “Part
Two” of this article, we’ll look at:
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How to increase your
chances of finding your type of trends.
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How to increase your
chances of finding your type of streaks.
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How to increase
your profit without increasing betting risk.
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How to avoid
jumping too early or waiting too long.
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How to ride a
streak.
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When to “bail
out” on a trend. Good Luck & Good Skill at the Tables…and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor
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