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The When, Where, Why, What and How of
Signature Numbers Investing
For CONSISTENT Profit Lets
determine why you have to judge which bets pay off with the most consistency, and which
ones are actually costing you money. The
best way to do that is to keep an accurate, on-going record of the bets that you have
made, and then track how much you have won or lost off of each of them. In doing so, you get to accurately and honestly
appraise which bets are making the most money, and which ones are costing you dearly. An
honest assessment of your current betting enables you to make more profit in the
future. Failure to do so usually results
in very little forward momentum as far as your winnings are concerned. That means that even if your
shooting-skills improve, but your betting-skills stay stagnant, your profit (or lack of
profit) may stay the same. To
achieve more profit, does not mean that you have to increase your wagers. Rather, it takes an honest appraisal of your
current skills, and then a redistribution of WHERE, WHEN and HOW you make your future
bets. The
Power of Regression In
previous articles, we looked at the charts and graphs that chronicle a random-rollers
actual chances of winning. A
Precision-Shooter has to keep these numbers in mind when planning their bets, simply
because they are the base from were we launch our efforts to gain an advantage
over the house. We need to know where we are
starting from (random dice distribution), to determine where and how far we have to go to
reach dicesetting advantage-play. The value
of knowing what true random really means, comes into very clear focus when we
use steep-regression betting methods to achieve net-profit in the quickest, lowest-risk
manner. Ill
tell you this right now. Using
a steep regression is the fastest, lowest-risk, and most consistent way for a
Precision-Shooter to get to an early profit at the craps table. Though it isnt guaranteed to work
every time, it is the most consistent one out there. With
that in mind, lets take another look at just HOW and WHY Regression Methods work the best
when combined with our Signature-Numbers. Why
Regressions Work
In
a random game, heres what typically happens to our Place-bets on the 6 and 8 (once
the PL-Point has been established):
Ø
55%
of the time, you wont get ANY hits before the 7-Out appears.
Ø
25%
of the time, youll get one hit before the random-roller 7s-Out.
Ø
11%
of the time, youll get two hits before the 7 ends that hand.
Ø
5%
of the time, those bets will ring the bell three times before the hand finally ends. With
a random-roller, we have a very high expectation of losing, so you can see why
Im not a huge fan of betting on unqualified players.
Yes,
you can sometimes catch a great hand from a lucky chucker, but they are few and far
between. On the hot-rolls, youll find
me there with bets on the table, but at other times, and those other times are
MOST OF THE TIME, youll find me with virtually NO MONEY bet in favor of
random-rollers. On
a random-roller, the 6 and 8 Place-bet is still statistically, a loser. As a
Precision-Shooter, we seek to re-cast those numbers so they appear more frequently when we
throw the dice, and therefore result in a positive, advantage-play outcome. For
a Precision-Shooter who determines that the 6 or 8 is one of their dominant power-numbers,
it presents a definable profit opportunity. If
you reduce the exposure-time (as measured by the number of rolls) for your bets; you
increase the likelihood that youll have a net-profit instead of a net-loss at the
end of most hands that you toss. When
you weigh the relative merits of various betting-methods (including Steep Regressions),
you have to compare your current skills against the benchmark of what a random-roller is
expected to do in the same situation. That
way, you can accurately measure where your strengths and weaknesses are, and what threats
and opportunities are uncovered through the accurate, on-going tracking of your
Signature-Numbers. Can
we expect a better 6 and 8 performance from our own dice-tossing efforts? Well,
the answer lays in your own individual skills, and how accurately we track them. Precision-BETTING
Compliments Our Precision-Shooting We
not only have to determine IF
our shooting is better than random,
but also by HOW
MUCH better
(as in,
x%
better), and we are then able to ascertain how
frequently
we can expect our betting-plan to generate a net-profit, and how often well have to
endure shorter, less profitable hands. In
that way, we can fashion a betting-plan that is tailor-made to our current skill-level. That makes our tracking-efforts pertinent, and our
profits more predictable. You can still pray
for luck, but if all else fails, you can always fall back on your bankable skills. This
is why we have to determine WHAT our Signature-Numbers are, which will then help us
decide WHEN, WHERE and HOW we make our betting decisions. It takes most of the guesswork out of the
betting-equation, and replaces it with solid evidence based on our current
shooting-skills. This also has a way of
increasing our shooting-confidence, simply because we have seen the concrete proof and
validation of our ever-improving Precision-Shooting efforts. In
that sense, we are using Precision-BETTING to compliment and augment our
Precision-Shooting talent. By combining those
two elements, we take our game to a whole new level of predictable and consistent profit. Adjusting
to the Situation Our
friend, Shooter57, asked an excellent question about how I handle and adjust to various
situations: What
happens when you don't see your usual Signature-Numbers during a particular hand? Do you adjust your set, change sets entirely, or
just simply play the numbers you are getting?
Ø
When
I'm not seeing my usual Signature Numbers, BUT lower echelon Box-numbers are repeating;
I'll simply cover them with bets.
Ø
However,
if for example, the 3 and/or 11 start to show when I'm using the 3-V set; I realize that
I'm double-pitching on-axis. While the 3 and 11 provide a good profit potential either bet
"straight-up" on their respective Prop numbers, or diluted as part of a
Horn-bet; it also presents a dangerous 7-Out possibility. In that case, I'll forego the
Prop "potential" (and the 7-Out RISK), and make a simple set adjustment (usually
by way of a 1/4-face rotation).
Ø
By
making that simple ¼-face rotation, I work with what Im currently getting (by
staying on-axis, but double-pitching into a highly dangerous 7-Out possibility), and I
turn it to my advantage by doing that ¼-face rotation away from a likely
on-axis 7-Out. I stay conscious of what the
dice are doing, compared to what I want them to do; then I might make minor
adjustments to compensate.
Ø
I'll
rarely change sets in mid-hand (from 3-V to X-6 or 2-V, or one of their permutations)
simply to snipe out a particular PL-Point. I find that the most consistently predictable
profit comes from Place-bets that have been paid for very quickly (through a steep
regression after one hit), and then steadily advanced through an alternating Press/Same
Bet/Press/Same Bet sequence.
Ø
One
of the few times when I will actually change sets completely in mid-hand, is when
Ive been rolling for quite a while and I want to take a much needed break/pause that
a PL-Point winner will bring. That is, I want
to take a short intermission while the dealers pay a table full of bets, and I
can relax and refocus on the continuing task at hand.
To achieve that, Ill sometimes change my set to actually snipe out the
PL-winner, but again, I dont do that very often, and I can tell you that it
doesnt work successfully every time. In
fact, it sometimes results in a LONG, unintended intermission, simply because a 7-Out
shows up just after the transition from one set to the other. To my mind, greed sometimes has a perverse sense
of humor.
Ø
The
percentage of times when I'll throw 30+ roll hands without ever repeating my non
Signature-Number PL-Point continues to astound me, even to this day. In that case, if I
happen to roll a non-SN, PL-Point winner; then all the better, but I don't go out of my
way to achieve it.
Ø
You
have to remember that my Come-Out set (usually a modified S-6, P-6 or straight All-7) may
spawn PL-Point numbers that don't necessarily correspond with my strongest Point-cycle
Signature-Numbers. For that, I usually choose the Point-cycle set (3-V, 2-V or X-6, or one
of their variations) which most closely match the new PL-Point.
Ø
For
those situations, you have to realize that different sets will deliver a different set of
S-N's, or at least a different weight of distribution of your Signature Numbers. When you
look at Heavy's distribution chart for various sets, you'll see what I mean
here
.
Ø
If
I notice that one dice is repeatedly going off-axis, but I'm still getting a good outcome
(a non-7, Place-bet result), then I'll just keep tossing EXACTLY the same way, to EXACTLY
the same target, with the intention of getting the EXACT same result. I take the profit,
and I don't "over-think" or try to over-correct that specific problem while the
dice are in my hand. When that particular hand ends, it is a "trigger" for me to
end that session, and then figure out WHY I was getting the results that I was getting.
Ø
Now,
if one dice is repeatedly going off-axis, but the outcome is a non-7 Horn-number, I will
make a light bet on the Horn. That
is, Ill wager $4 on the Horn (2, 3, 11, & 12).
If it immediately repeats, Ill Press it (but not Parlay it). If it hits again, Ill be more aggressive
with my Pressing, but Ill concurrently steeply reduce my Place-bets, and possibly
reduce my PL-Odds. Though I wont turn
them off completely, I want to have minimal exposure for my consistent
off-axis performance. Again, when that
particular hand ends, it is a "trigger" for me to end that session, and then
figure out WHY I was getting the results that I was getting. That
brings us around to the subject of: Off-Axis
Dominants
If
you use the X-6 for your Point-cycle, and you get a lot of single-die off-axis Hard
8s and 10s (just like Heavy and I both do); then you have to take advantage of
them even though they are in fact, still off-axis. We
call outcomes like that: Off-axis Dominants. Similarly,
if an off-axis Hard-4 or Hard-10 shows up when Im tossing my 3-V Point-cycle toss, I
immediately throw in a bet on both the H-4 and H-10.
If either of them hits, Ill use about half of the Hardway profit to
Press my action on both of them. If
you know what your chief Signature Numbers are, and you know what you on-axis percentage
is; then youll also quickly learn what your OFF-AXIS Dominant Numbers
are. In
some cases, you wont be throwing enough of them to make the betting effort worth
your while. However, if a strong percentage
of your off-axis throws result in the same predominant numbers time and time again; then
there is certainly something that you can do about them
and that is to bet into the
opportunity. Heres
the thing. If
your turn with the dice is continuing, but your Signature Numbers have gone on vacation,
you are STILL IN THE GAME. As long as the
stickman keeps sending the dice back to you, you are still in the game, still in action,
and you still have a chance to bring in a profit. By
making too many mid-course (mid-hand) corrections, you have just as good of a chance of
shooting yourself in the foot and watching your betting-action go down in flames, as you
do of salvaging a win. Youll sometimes
find that if you maintain a consistent toss, the reliability of your S-Ns will
happily return at the most unexpected time. If
you are continually tweaking, changing, and adjusting your throw during mid-hand,
youll have a harder time nailing down the correct change before the 7
appears. So
in the alternative, if you are seeing a high number of mid-hand off-axis dominants; you
still have the opportunity to salvage profit without having to make radical mid-course
corrections and adjustments which may or may not work.
As I mentioned earlier, this is a trigger for me to take a break
from the action as soon as my current hand ends. That
way, I can take a closer look at what the cause was, and what the likely correction should
be. Dangerous
Assumption or Common-Sense? A
fair, but rhetorical question from another reader asked: Do
we start making dangerous assumptions when our SRR (Sevens-to-Rolls Ratio) finally starts
to stay above the 6:1 mark? Are we blinded by
the big picture and assume that if our SRR is better-than-random;
we WILL make money, most, if not all of the time? There
is lots of insight loaded into that particular question. Just
because our SRR is above the 6-to-1 random mark, it DEFINITELY DOES
NOT
guarantee more profit. In fact, it usually
engenders over-confidence, over-betting and reduced discipline on the part of the player. In
and of itself, an SRR of 6+ does us no good if our bets arent tailored
to take advantage of the NUMBERS THAT DISPLACE THE 7.
That is, if we reduce the number of times that a 7 will occur in 36 rolls of
the dice; we need to know which number or numbers have taken its place. That is a simple, but nonetheless quite effective
method for determining the new pecking order of dice-outcomes. We
shouldnt let an SRR that is marginally higher than 6:1 encourage us to bet
arbitrarily and haphazardly; nor should we permit a lower than 6:1 ratio, discourage us. Rather, we use our most frequently occurring
power-numbers to determine and shape betting-methods which will drive our profits. It
makes sense to tailor our entire betting-regimen to suit our CURRENT dicesetting skill
level. The strength and profitability
of what it is we do as Precision-Shooters, can be found and measured in how, when and
where we place our bets. For
maximum profitability and minimum risk, Signature-Numbers have to be the driving force
behind all of those How, When, Where, and Why decisions. Until
next time, Good
Luck and Good Skill at the tables
and in Life. Sincerely, The Mad Professor
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