Regression Avoids Depression
Part 21
Let me ask you something.
How long has
it been since your dice-influencing winnings actually doubled your total
gaming bankroll?
Let’s say that you would give
up dice-influencing altogether if you lost a total of $3000; how long has it
been
since your dice-influencing
winnings actually increased your
I-will-give-up-craps-if-I-lose-x-amount of total
gaming bankroll by more than
double?
If that’s too tough of a
question or if you refuse to consider the amount of money that you are
continually
feeding in to repeatedly prop
up your sessional buy-ins from an undefined total bankroll; then let me ask
you this:
When was the
last time your precision-shooting winnings actually justified an increase
in the basic
advantage-play bets that you currently spread on the table?
That is, when did your
total winnings, not just your
I’m-on-a-good-roll-so-I’ll-press-up-my-bets-with-some-
of-my-winnings,
justify an increase in the value of your basic advantage-play bets?
I ask you all of this because
today I’m going to show you
how long it will generally take for
you to
DOUBLE
an optimally-sized bankroll if you based your positive-expectation bets strictly
on your CURRENT shooting skills.
When was the last time
someone did THAT for you (that didn’t include a crazy “parlay
it to the moon…
stack it, never rack it
until you reach the table-max” method)?
Advantage-play dice-influencing is all about taking the skills that you
currently have, and using
them to
extract a predictable profit on the positive-expectation wagers that you make.
If you have the skill (and
frankly, your actual D-I abilities don’t have to be much above random); and you
make the bets that are sized
to your actual advantage (no matter how small it is); then you can reasonably
determine approximately how long it will generally take for you to double
your bankroll.
Now obviously I’m not going
to factor in any of the frivolous bets where you waste your money on random-
rollers and unqualified
hunches; that’s between you, your conscience, and the day-job that you need to
keep in order to
continually feed what would otherwise be an excellent second source of income.
Rather,
I’m going to show you how, if
you actually allowed yourself to do it, that it would take for you to double an
optimally-sized
bankroll…based entirely on your current skills and NOT on a
someday-in-the-improbable-
ottery-winning-future
fantasy.
Prepare To Make More Money
My advantage-play
philosophy is all about extracting a net-profit from as many of our current
hands as possible without
unduly restraining our overall earnings-power nor unduly
endangering our bankroll.
That simply means that I
like to make as much money with as little risk as possible. It
also means that I understand the need to focus my money on the wagers that I am
most likely to collect from during the
point-cycle.
I’ll remind you again that it is important that
you start to think about your bets in relation not only to the
size of the buy-in money that you bring to the
table (that’s your “session buy-in”), but more importantly
how much money your current skill-level (when
combined with your intended wagers) demand and require
in terms of a reasonable overall
bankroll to ensure a low-risk shot at reasonable profit-growth…and
bankroll doubling.
Now although you may choose not to apply
optimally-sized wagers to your dice-influencing skills at
the present time; there’s nothing to say that
you won’t be able to work your way up to making optimally-
sized bets over a reasonable period of time;
it’s just that it will obviously take much, much longer to get there.
The following is a compilation, by SRR-rate,
for each of the global bets that we’ve been discussing in
this series; so you may want to print out the
table that pertains to your current SRR skill-level for a quick
in-casino reference guide.
I’ll also mention again that these
advantaged-plays are based on regressing your bets at the optimal
ISR trigger-point, and obviously
if you venture off-path with the trigger-point (thereby sub-optimally
regressing your bets); then your profit-mileage
is going to suffer a substantial penalty.
|
SRR-7
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers |
Steepness Ratio
|
2:1 |
3:1 |
4:1 |
5:1 |
10:1 |
|
Inside |
$9167 |
$13,750 |
$18,334 |
$22,917 |
$45,833 |
|
Across |
$15,238 |
$22,857 |
$30,476 |
$38,095 |
$76,190 |
|
Outside |
$12,121 |
$18,182 |
$24,242 |
$30,303 |
$60,606 |
|
Even |
$10,232 |
$15,349 |
$20,465 |
$25,581 |
$51,162 |
|
Iron
Cross |
$11,000 |
$16,500 |
$22,000 |
$27,500 |
$55,000 |
|
6 & 8 |
$4138 |
$6207 |
$8276 |
$10,345 |
$20,690 |
|
5 & 9 |
$5000 |
$7500 |
$10,000 |
$12,500 |
$25,000 |
|
4 & 10 |
$7692 |
$11,538 |
$15,385 |
$19,230 |
$38,461 |
|
SRR-8
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers |
Steepness Ratio
|
2:1 |
3:1 |
4:1 |
5:1 |
10:1 |
|
Inside |
$3520 |
$5280 |
$7040 |
$8800 |
$17,600 |
|
Across |
$5470 |
$8421 |
$10,940 |
$13,675 |
$27,350 |
|
Outside |
$3922 |
$5882 |
$7843 |
$9804 |
$19,608 |
|
Even |
$3760 |
$5641 |
$7521 |
$9401 |
$18,803 |
|
Iron
Cross |
$3928 |
$5893 |
$7857 |
$9821 |
$19,643 |
|
6 & 8 |
$1621 |
$2432 |
$3243 |
$4054 |
$8108 |
|
5 & 9 |
$1786 |
$2679 |
$3571 |
$4464 |
$8928 |
|
4 & 10 |
$2174 |
$3261 |
$4348 |
$5435 |
$10,870 |
|
SRR-9
Optimal Bankroll
for each of these
Initial Steep Regression wagers |
Steepness Ratio
|
2:1 |
3:1 |
4:1 |
5:1 |
10:1 |
|
Inside |
$2065 |
$3098 |
$4131 |
$5164 |
$10,329 |
|
Across |
$3106 |
$4660 |
$6213 |
$7767 |
$15,534 |
|
Outside |
$2162 |
$3243 |
$4324 |
$5405 |
$10,810 |
|
Even |
$2115 |
$3173 |
$4230 |
$5288 |
$10,577 |
|
Iron
Cross |
$2189 |
$3283 |
$4378 |
$5473 |
$10,945 |
|
6 & 8 |
$941 |
$1412 |
$1882 |
$2353 |
$4706 |
|
5 & 9 |
$990 |
$1485 |
$1980 |
$2475 |
$4950 |
|
4 & 10 |
$1198 |
$1796 |
$2395 |
$2994 |
$5988 |
Okay, let’s take a slightly
different look at how the recommended amount of total bankroll goes down
as
your SRR-rate go up.
|
Optimal Bankroll for
Steep Regression Betting
|
ISR
Steepness Ratio
|
2:1 |
3:1 |
4:1 |
5:1 |
10:1 |
Inside
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$9167 |
$13,750 |
$18,334 |
$22,917 |
$45,833 |
SRR-8
|
$3520 |
$5280 |
$7040 |
$8800 |
$17,600 |
|
SRR-9 |
$2065 |
$3098 |
$4131 |
$5164 |
$10,329 |
Across
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$15,238 |
$22,857 |
$30,476 |
$38,095 |
$76,190 |
SRR-8
|
$5470 |
$8421 |
$10,940 |
$13,675 |
$27,350 |
|
SRR-9 |
$3106 |
$4660 |
$6213 |
$7767 |
$15,534 |
Outside
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$12,121 |
$18,182 |
$24,242 |
$30,303 |
$60,606 |
SRR-8
|
$3922 |
$5882 |
$7843 |
$9804 |
$19,608 |
|
SRR-9 |
$2162 |
$3243 |
$4324 |
$5405 |
$10,810 |
Even
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$10,232 |
$15,349 |
$20,465 |
$25,581 |
$51,162 |
SRR-8
|
$3760 |
$5641 |
$7521 |
$9401 |
$18,803 |
SRR-9
|
$2115 |
$3173 |
$4230 |
$5288 |
$10,577 |
Iron Cross
|
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$11,000 |
$16,500 |
$22,000 |
$27,500 |
$55,000 |
SRR-8
|
$3928 |
$5893 |
$7857 |
$9821 |
$19,643 |
|
SRR-9 |
$2189 |
$3283 |
$4378 |
$5473 |
$10,945 |
|
6 &
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$4138 |
$6207 |
$8276 |
$10,345 |
$20,690 |
SRR-8
|
$1621 |
$2432 |
$3243 |
$4054 |
$8108 |
|
SRR-9 |
$941 |
$1412 |
$1882 |
$2353 |
$4706 |
|
5 &
9 |
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$5000 |
$7500 |
$10,000 |
$12,500 |
$25,000 |
SRR-8
|
$1786 |
$2679 |
$3571 |
$4464 |
$8928 |
SRR-9
|
$990 |
$1485 |
$1980 |
$2475 |
$4950 |
|
4 &
10 |
|
|
|
|
|
SRR-7
|
$7692 |
$11,538 |
$15,385 |
$19,230 |
$38,461 |
|
|
