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Using WinCraps to
War-Game your Current D-I Skills Against Various Betting-Methods
Whenever anyone goes to the trouble
of writing up various betting-schemes, I always read them with keen
interest. Though the concept itself may be directed towards betting on
random-rollers, I always look to see if that same method would have any
merit for any dice-influencers…especially THIS dice-influencer.
What I’ve found over the years is that although some of these random-centric
plays are out-and-out losers no matter how a random-roller slices, dices, or
juliennes them; in the hands of a modestly skilled dice-influencer they can
turn in a surprisingly fine and steadily profitable performance.
That brings us to what I consider the finest piece of bet-simulation
software available today. WinCraps (
www.cloudcitysoftware.com ) allows you to run every possible
bet-simulation you can think of no matter how simple or complicated it is.
With WinCraps you simply set up the conditions under which each
element of a bet is carried out, whether it’s because it’s been 51 rolls
since a 12-Midnight showed up so you now want to run a triple parlay on the
Hopping Hard-4 or it’s the eighth hand in a row where a Come-Out 3-craps was
thrown, so you now want to bet your entire bankroll on the Inside-numbers
for two hits and then down...WinCraps will run whatever bet-method you
want…including and especially ones that make a lot more sense
than the two that I just mentioned.
Did I mention you can set it up for random rolls or for your own
roll-tracked results?
That’s right, you can take your
personally-tracked roll-files right out of BoneTracker and paste them
into WinCraps in order to run bet-sims on your current toss-results
or you can input them manually like you do with B-T.
It doesn’t matter what you want to do with your bets or what you use as a
trigger to commence that wager action; you can get WinCraps to do it
for you over hundreds, thousands, and even millions of simulated rolls.
That is, once you’ve got your bet-file configured to your liking, you can
have WinCraps run roll-simulations to determine not only how
much money you’ll win or lose per-roll, per-hour, per-session,
per-lifetime; but you can also find out what the high-point,
low-point, and average-point of your profit will be if you bet that
way.
That would give you an excellent idea of not only how much a
particular method would earn for you (based on your current D-I skills) over
a given period of time (as measured by # of rolls or completed hands); but
it would also indicate how deep your bankroll draw-downs would be, as
well as showing you how high your corresponding profit-peaks would
likely be.
For example, your bet-file 'tells' WinCraps what to bet, when to bet,
and how to bet; such as "bet $x when this happens...do x when that happens,
reduce this bet by $x and increase that one by $x when any of these
following x events happen. On the C-O do this, during the point-cycle do
that...when a PL-point is repeated do this...when a 7-Out occurs do
that...when a C-O winner hits do this, that, and the other, etc."
Setting up a bet-file is quite easy to do and it allows you to set up
complete betting schemes, keep track of certain events or create statistics.
Steen, the creator of WinCraps gave
his kind permission to include his instructions on how to set up a bet-file:
“At the bottom of the Auto-Bet screen are five
boxes that you use to create the bets you want. The basic idea is to build
bets in two parts: Conditional parts and Action parts, with the
understanding that if the Conditions become true then the Actions will be
carried out. As you'll see, there's a lot of latitude in how you put bets
together, but here's how the basic structure should look:
Basic structure:..............Example:
Start Condition................When
...
Condition.........................Next
roll is a come-out roll
Start Action.....................then
...
Action..............................Bet
$5 on Pass Line
Let's refer to this complete structure as an Auto-Bet.
The purpose for having separate Start Condition and Start Action lines is to
enable you to assemble any number of Conditions and/or Actions beneath them.
In other words, they mark the beginnings of Condition Blocks and Action
Blocks. For example:
Multiple
Conditions:..............Multiple Actions:
While......................................When ...
Next roll is a come-out
roll.......Next roll is a come-out roll
Bankroll is greater than
$50.....then ...
Place 6 is greater than
$6.....,...Bet $5 on Pass Line
then
............................................Bet $1 on Any Craps
...........……….............................Bet $5 on Pass Line
.......................................,,,,,,,....Bet $1 on Field
In the first case, there are three condition lines that form one complete
block. Each condition must evaluate true for the block to be considered true
and for the subsequent action to take place. In other words, there's an
implied "and" between each of the lines in the block. In the second case,
there are three actions that form a block. Each one is carried out if the
one condition line is true. Of course,
Auto-Bets can include
both multiple conditions and multiple actions.
Just as would happen in a casino, your bets are acted on in the order called
- so order is important! For example:
While ............Bankroll is greater than $50
then.......….....Bet $5 on
Pass Line
While ............Pass Line
has lost 3 times
then...............Bet $0 on
Pass Line
If the conditions for both of these Auto-Bets were true then the result
would be a $0 Pass Line bet. However, if you reversed their order, the
result would be a $5 Pass Line bet. A number of editing features makes it
easy to change and move your Auto-Bets.
There are two primary Start Conditions: 'When' and 'While'
that are used to start Auto-Bets, and there are six additional Start
Conditions: 'and when', 'and while', 'or when', 'or while', and 'x-or when',
'x-or while' that are used to modify them.
You should be able to build just about any betting scheme you want without
resorting to overly complicated Auto-Bets.
Load any of the sample bet-files that are already included in WinCraps; for
example 'Sample5.bet' is a complete betting strategy in only six lines! Or
look at 'Sample3.bet' and 'Sample4.bet' to see how a more involved
betting-method is structured, and you’ll see that each instruction-line in
any individual Auto-Bets is fairly simple.”
Thanks Steen.
Folks, the reason I’m such a strong proponent for
using WinCraps is because it lets you separate the truth about
your current-skill player-edge from all the
speculation, conjecture, and bullshit.
If you think your current betting-method holds up to scrutiny and is the
best one for your current set of dice-influencing skills; then prove
it to yourself. You can run concurrent side-by-side betting-methods
against your tracked rolls to see exactly how one wagering-approach compares
to the other.
For example, you can set up half a dozen different chip-stacks to represent
six different betting-methods (or six different players) who are all
individually betting on your tracked rolls at the same time).
~You could set up the bet-file for
chip-stack #1 for how you currently bet your advantage.
~You could then set up chip-stacks #
2 and #3 with various bet-files that you’ve gleaned off the internet or ones
that have been recommended by friends.
~Chip-stacks #4 and #5 could be set
up to reflect the strongest-edge bets recommended by DiceTool,
BoneTracker, or SmartCraps.
~Chip-stack #6 could be used to run
various Steep Regressions, Power Presses, or Parlay-then-Off routines.
In any event, you can play around with various bet-schemes and run all kinds
of bet-permutation trials to see if there is a better way to accomplish a
higher-profit/lower-volatility result within the same risk-tolerance level
you have right now, or perhaps you'll develop an entirely different approach
that permits a bit more volatility while generating an even better
profit-result.
It's all about using your CURRENT skill-set to generate the
dice-influencing revenue that you deserve.
No agenda, no bologna...just more profit in your pocket.
In any event, WinCraps helps you determine how well or how
poorly each betting-method will perform when the dice are in your
advantaged hands.
To my mind, Using WinCraps to War-Game your
Current D-I Skills Against Various Betting-Methods, is the
best way to prove or disprove what you think your
skills offer in terms of money-making capacity versus what they really do
offer.
Good Luck & Good
Skill at the tables…and in Life.
Sincerely,
The Mad Professor
Copyright © 2006
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