Betting Strategies - Progression vs Regression
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Shooters I'm in a confused state, recently I encountered several difficult shooting sessions which lost money, I generally try to go slow only betting on myself when I begin to show the correct "impact" numbers for my sets and/or after making my first pass line point. I start delivering on the numbers then when I decide to engage fully in the betting (I generally use an "pay for the bet, then profit, then progress 50%" A basic progressive strategy, which is defensive in it's nature (low risk/medium reward, unless you shoot a solid hand.) This creates a situation where when I've thrown a decent hand 9-13 Numbers, But I don't' really gain the profit I should. With Regression the Risk appears greater upfront but fly's in the face of the logic of waiting until you gain a comfortable feel, adapt to table conditions, thrown several inside numbers before risking "110.00" inside etc...
What Betting Strategy can be used to walk the line between defensive and offensive positions of Progression vs. Regression or is there such a strategy.
It's an excellent question, but you need to give more details. Which set or sets are you using after come out? What's your bankroll?
Personally, I'm a one hit and regress to lock profit, then press every other or every third hit kinda guy.....
Here's Further Details Concerning my Question Irish
My Come Out Roll
6/5 - 6/5 (I like to play all the hardways on the hop, since the set brings hardways and an any crap)
Once Point is established.
If point is outside, I go with the Mini "V" 2/3 - 2/1, which seems to consistently bring outside numbers more effectively than a previous set I used, 1/2 - 2/3.
If point is inside, I go with Flying V 3/6 - 3/2, which works for inside numbers, but I seem to get a huge number of Yo's, 12's and 3's. (Wonder to others encounter same) May occasionally try the cross hard Sixes to change up due to box staring etc..
Intangibles: I swear, i have to adjust to having large sums on the table for regression to work, I get a little nervous when I get above the 30 on 6/8, 25 on 5/9 level. Maybe this is function of my bank roll or lack their of. Must turn fear into concentration
Here's something to ponder. If you have a set that you feel is your strongest post come out set, ALWAYS use it and it's associated signature numbers until you have reached a guaranteed profit. If the point number is not one of your signature numbers for this set, then you may EVEN want to consider NOT putting odds up right away. Having multiple sets can be difficult and distracting. Once you've guaranteed a profit, then you can mess around with sharpshooting sets....
You can take or leave these suggestions.... finding ways to lower your risk (and stress levels) are good ways to start a hand. If you have that monster hand, there's always time to press it up....
To PsionTheory: Great question!!!
I asked similar questions and concerns in the following 2 posts: 1. "Mad P-Can't Win #3" posted on 11-Mar-2002 at 3:16pm 2. "Great Expectations" posted on 13-Mar-2002 at 10:50pm.
Take a look at those and see if there is more profit to earn with and additional bet strategy/strategies to be added to one's Playbook.
I do hope the Mad P. will respond in article form or message board post at his earliest convience. (We're still patiently waiting the the Mad P. 2nd Playbook and the "90 Days to Freedom" article.)
Many of my loosing sessions would have been winning sessions with ANY type of a regression.
NERVES AFFECT THE BANKROLL
Because of an underfunded trip bankroll or playing with scared money, I will not play a regression (or play it less than I should) since I don't want that big loss on one hand.
The Mad P had a great article about how nerves can affect your game....I took that to heart, because many times when I just have a $10 pass line bet with no odds, I roll 10 to 15+ numbers with ease, as soon as I put up the Iron cross, $18 6 and $18 8 and $10 5, the 7-out comes 1 to 3 rolls later.
ONE HIT WONDER REGRESSION !!
Howevever, I want to experiment more with regressions, since like you, if I roll 9 - 13 numbers I should have a profit. Waiting for my mega roll is a killer.
I'm currently working on a betting stratetgy that I call the ONE- HIT-WONDER. After winning $500 for the day (or maybe I should even start with this strategy), I want to bet $90 6 and $90 8 and $50 5 and $50 field. I have $280 exposed for ONE roll that will generate $50 (except a hit on the 5 would generate $20.) I would then break down to $44 inside....no matter what happens I have a $6 profit.
My NERVES are now only in action for ONE roll.
At this point I do not go back to the ONE-HIT-WONDER, as long as I am up.
I have never played the above strategy with thos amounts, because I normally have a $500 a day loss limit. One $280 loss would be detrimental.
MORE REASONABLE REGRESSION
My next trip to AC, I will definitely play a regression probably similar (but maybe with a few twists) to the following some of the time:
After warming up:
1.$36 6 and $36 8, $15 5 and $20 Field. $107 exposed ($117 exposed if the point is 4, 9, 10, because of $10 pass line bet. If the point is 5, 6, or 8 then I would have $10 pass line and the rest on odds, etc.)
2. After ANY 2 hits (obviously except the 5), I have a $40 - $44 profit
3. Then go to a $12 6 and 8 plus the point. Now I have a minimum of $6 - $10 profit no matter what happens. My nerves are now out of play.
4. Then place 5 and 9, the 4 and 10.
Now I do not need mega rolls to profit. Obviously, if I get wiped out on those 2 rolls, I've dug a hole that I have to climb out of.
One variation on the above play: $110 inside 1 hit or 2 rolls, then regress. etc.
The goal is not to wait for mega rolls, on my shooting to make consistent profits at the game of craps.
Even Jerry Patterson has advocated 7 rolls as a realistic goal. If one can obtaing a SRR of 7, 95% of the time, then one should be able to earn a consistent income with craps. Obviously, I want to aim for a SRR higher than 7....I desire to improve my skills.
P.S. What does Psion Theory mean?
Psion is a type of power energy signiture various superhero's have in Marvel Comic Books. Variations on the Psion Energy Signiture Range from Light (Able to change colors of a flower), to powerful concussion blasts (Able to punch holes through titanium, steel etc.)
So If I was a superhero,(which I am when I step to the craps table) My name would be PsionTheory. Also the name sounds sort of cool.
This is PsionTheory signing off from my West Cost Stronghold/Battle Lab etc...