
Maddog's
Journey 
Part IX
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"subscribe" as the subject.) Part 9: Give That Dog A Bone Well fellow crapsters, the journey goes on, one step at a time, but these articles have come to their conclusion. I
have had some great successes at the tables since picking up this DI obsession, and I have
had some miserable failures. I continue to
learn and evolve my game. Striving to improve
as I hope you do also. Before I sign off,
I’d like to come back to an issue that I brought up previously. Back
in Part 5 and Part 6 I mentioned that I would talk about why I think Dice Influencing and
craps table math does not mix. Oil and
vinegar. Alcohol and gunpowder. Paris Hilton and classy elegance. Yeah, this might sound like a strange statement
coming from me, what with all the graphs and charts and such that I’ve posted over
the while. Let
me explain myself before you get the wrong idea. There
is no doubt that the game of craps is all about probabilities and statistics (math). Maybe more so then any other casino game, if only
because of the myriad and multiple concurrent bets available to the craps player. Each bet having its own odds of occurrence and
unique payoff structure. As
we know, all the craps bets and rules are centered on the design of the random
distribution of number occurrences that are possible when two sixside cubes are rolled
and their top face results are combined. The
house advantage (or HA) for all craps bets are based on manipulations of the payouts from
the true statistical odds of this theoretical random distribution. I’m
sure that you all would agree with me that it is important to understand some of the basic
principles at the craps tables. ~
The dice distribution table is made up of 36 possible combinations. ~
The expected frequency of the 7 is six times in 36 rolls. ~
The expected frequency of the 6 is five times in 36 rolls. ~
The odds of rolling a six before a seven are 6 to 5 against, yet the casino pays the PL at
1:1 only and the Place 6 at 7:6, ~
and so on and so on for all the available craps bets. Most
of us want to know what bets have the lowest vigorish (HA) to give us the best chance for
a score. In other words the least downside
risk while waiting for ole lady luck to nuzzle up and scratch us behind the ears. By knowing how the house calculates the odds and
payoffs we can at least make an informed decision on the gamble we are going to take. Some
of you have learned the proper odds vs actual bet payouts through sheer time at the
tables. Many have learned the odds from one or more of the many books that spell out the
–EV bets in all their gory details. Some
have even taken the time to memorize all the tables and numbers for all the bets from the
basic place 6 to the hopping hard ten. Having
a strong understanding of the game is of course a basic requirement and something anyone
who wishes to do more then just “sniff around the table” must take the time to
swallow. But
the DI simply MUST understand more than the fundamental
numbers of the game. Why? Well, what is the fundamental goal and objective
of the DI? Isn’t it to alter the standard roll frequency distribution probability
table? Ok, I stand corrected. The fundamental
objective is to make some money at the craps table. LOL. But, really, to achieve the objective of putting
more cabbage in our pockets, other then smart money management and a good scratch from
lady luck, we must find a way to roll fewer sevens and more point numbers (or viseverse
for darkside betting). That brings us back to
altering the expected rolls distribution probability from what is found in a standard
random game. Dice Influencing. If
a DI successfully alters the dice distribution probability tables, then he can no longer
use the “quoted” EV/HA figures. Yeah,
let me say that again. He can no longer
use the standard EV/HA figures. The
1.414% PL, et. al. just no longer have any meaning.
By altering the probabilities, the DI is now in a position to rewrite the
rules. He/She must now figure EV/HA based on
the new “true” odds probabilities. If
the DI is able to reduce the number of sevens in 36 to five instead of six, we now have a
new probability distribution. In the random
set the six is 6:5 against. In the new
distribution table, the six is now 5:5 even money. The
Pass Line is now paying at true odds for the Point Six and the Place Six is getting $7 for
$6. In this new distribution the correct
(true odds) payout for the Place Six should be $6 for $6 even money. This DI is getting a bonus $1 for every unit on a
Place Six hit. He/She is now charging
the casino to entertain him/her. We must recognize that once the distribution probabilities are altered, it is no longer a matter of overcomingtheHA for a bet. All the “standard” HAs have no meaning and must be recalculated based on the new, altered, distribution probabilities to have any relevance. This
is the meaning behind my comment that “Dice Influencing and craps table math do not
mix.” Perhaps it would be more accurate
for me to say, “Dice Influencing and traditional craps probability calculations do
not mix.” So
what is this “new” skewed distribution probability? If we need to recalculate the figures, what is the
new distribution we are to use? Ahhh,
now that is the crux of the DI world. This is
where the math of the game blends with the art/skill of the DI shooter. Due to the nature of the DI activity that includes
varying degrees of skill, handeye coordination, focus and concentration, differences in
physical makeup, etc, the new distribution is unique to each individual. Joe
might be reasonably good influencing the cubes. He’s
been a practicing DI for the past year and a half during which he has focused exclusively
on perfecting the use of the 3V. He prefers
to shoot stickright with an underhanded “bowler” grip and toss. Joe’s
favorite betting strategy is to run a powerpress progression on the 6 & 8. Jill
is intrigued by the greater payoff to bet ratio of the outside place bets, she
hasn’t been practicing all that much, but continues to work the 2V set to try for the
outside number hits. Jill likes the
StraightOut (SO) position and tosses with a one finger front grip. She is pretty good about consistently landing her
dice somewhere in the comebox. John
also shoots the 2V. He practiced many years
with other sets, but is now settling on the 2V and buying the outside numbers. John has an interesting physical characteristic in
that his first three fingers are the exact same length.
This physical quirk makes him amazingly adept with the three finger front
grip. Joe,
Jill and John are all different people. Each
shooter coming to the table with their own agenda, their own style, and their own skill
level ability. Would you expect each of these
shooters to consistently show the same number distributions? If Joe and Jill went to the casino together would
it make sense for them to use the same betting strategy?
(<Think about that one at your next hookup, or craps class
gettogether!>) Each
must track their ability and skills and determine for themselves their “new”
distribution model. Once a shooter knows his
“true” distribution model that is when the “math” requirement kicks
in. The shooter needs enough math to
recalculate the true odds and payoff EV based on the new distribution model. Math vs Experience:Just
as “mancannotlivebybreadalone”, the wellrounded DI cannot live and die by
the math of the game alone. The math is a
critical aspect and provides the foundation for every strategy/bet/gamble that we make,
but as any experienced craps player can tell you, the volatility associated with any bet
can have your bankroll swinging up and down more then the gold chains around a rappers
neck. It
becomes a bit of a catch22. You cannot
blindly play by the math, and yet, you cannot play blind and ignore the math. So
what is a poor ole dog to do, caught in the middle by such a seeming paradox? The answer is just that. The savvy craps player must find a way to play the
game from the middle. Not blinded by the math
and yet not blind to the math. Blinded
by the math: For
me the issue of the “math of craps” is that all the math formulas are based on
the probabilities using the law of large numbers. The
theoretical random toss distribution (out of 36 rolls: 6 sevens, 5 each of six and eight,
4 each of 5 and 9, etc.) is itself based on probability over a large number of rolls. This is just as true if we are talking about the
random game or if we are talking about the altered probabilities of the DI game. During
any average craps game it is a stretch to get in 100200 rolls, let alone the thousands
required to “normalize” the distributions.
During any given session our few dozen rolls can easily be characterized by
the standard and expected variations to the norm of what we have carefully tracked in the
thousands of practice rolls. Volatility
is still a big part of the game. No matter
how well you’ve tracked your throws and how big an advantage you have on the place 4
or place 6 “in practice”, when it comes to the realdeal, we all have to keep
our heads. Ya gotta still use smart money
management, start slow and ensure your toss on the casino table is showing you the numbers
you are used to seeing on your practice table. If
your expected numbers are not showing, keep your bets small while you work through what is
wrong. Walk away if you can’t find a way
to get the numbers you expect. Or, if you are
skilled at reading your toss, adjust your betting to the numbers you are tossing. When your numbers are showing, bet into your
advantage, maybe start slow, but don’t be timid when you have the edge and the
opportunity. IMHO,
it is not as simple as knowing that the 6 and 9 are your signature numbers and slapping
down 5 unit bets on those boxes. Understanding
and being able to see our own shooting “Trends” is critical to success. Testing the waters by jumpinginwithbothfeet
(as Heavy warns us) simply because the math tells us we have an advantage, is a good way
to find ourselves trying to dog paddle in the deep end wearing a long, shaggy fur coat. The
math and the numbers give us a good foundation and a solid starting point. But, the numbers alone won’t make up for an
inability to “read” the table and inexperience at “reading” and
reacting to the results of our tosses. Blind to the math: As
I’ve already mentioned, we also cannot go to the tables ignorant of the bet
probabilities and payouts. As DI’s the
math of the game tells us where our advantage lies. A
large part of this is tracking and recording rolls during practice sessions. Once the tracking part has been done, then the
math part can kick in for the purpose of determining which numbers are rolling strong with
our selected dice set. Figure out how your
numbers are rolling and what your “new” distribution graph looks like and
you’re in the power position of determining the new “true” odds of your
bets. Tracking
thousands of rolls in your basement and calculating EV for the myriad of available craps
bets is not the most fun thing to do in the world. Certainly
it is not nearly as fun as getting a nice win during a casino session. As a DI, we use the former to helps us get more
of the latter. And that is fun! Isn’t that what we are all about? A final bowwowI
hope you have found these articles to have been informative. Perhaps at least you have found them somewhat
entertaining. When I began these articles
over a year ago I was still a relative DI noob and my hope was to help other new DI’s
by sharing my learning experiences. It is funny to think that I began with the intention
to write them from a “newbie” perspective.
I never thought that a year later I’d still be thinking that I’m
writing from a “newbie” perspective, but I am. My
journey has not ended. I’ve still got my
nose to the trail always trying to sniff out that elusive quarry, the “Monster
Hand”. At several stops along the way,
this Dog has dug up a few tasty ole soup bones, even a few “Monster Bones”, but
in many ways I’m still just a pup with a lot to learn.
It
is a bit cliché, but there is no “destination”, only the journey. My journey continues and I hope my collections of
stories have helped your journey to be both enjoyable and profitable. See
you at the tables, and remember; Keep your toss straight and your rack full. Maddog 
