That Which Can Be
Documented, Can Be Done
Usually, this takes the form of demonstrating that the aspiring shooter can reduce the appearance of the seven. This initial documented data indicates the potential power and profitability of dice influencing….but it’s really just scratching the surface.
Many aspiring shooters, though they practice like mad, and continue to track their rolls, give little thought to deepening the analysis of their throws. Its quite amazing, but only a small percentage of shooters regularly track their on-axis percentage on a regular basis. Even fewer have spent any significant time trying to match their throwing strengths to their wagering strategy or even have the most general idea whether they truly have an advantage over the house.
The practice table is important on many, many different levels. Of course you use your practice time to develop consistent mechanics, but it is imperative to also use that time to truly scrutinize your abilities. If you’re usual strategy is to wager $44 inside when you’re shooting, do you know for a fact that your skill has demonstrated an advantage individually or as a whole on the 5,6,8,9?
The 5 and 9 at that level of wagering has a pretty steep HA to overcome. Your practice and in-casino data should determine the merit of any and all wagers you make and the only way to determine whether you should wager your hard earned money is to document and analyze your throws. The data may show that you have an advantage on the 6,8 and 9. Knowing this, you could reduce your initial risk every time you get the dice. This is just one example of how data analysis can impact your profitability.
Let’s say you’ve rolled the dice several thousand times using a sevens avoidance set, and have successfully reduced the appearance of the devil. This is a good thing! If the seven is appearing less, it means other numbers are appearing more, right? Do you know for certain which number or numbers?
For aspiring and journeyman shooters alike, a common error is to assume that by successfully reducing the appearance of the seven, they are guaranteeing themselves long term profitability. Sadly this is not the case as often these shooters continue to make negative expectation wagers. In fact, a savvy player, with limited shooting skills, can still be profitable if they've sufficiently analyzed their throw.
If youre not regularly documenting your throws, its extremely important that you start. If youre already documenting your throws, then dig a little deeper in your analysis. Be certain that you are betting only on those wagers that you have a demonstrated advantage. If you are uncertain on how to go about this, there are some great tools to assist you in this endeavor.
Personally, I use a combination of Excel spreadsheets and the wincraps simulator by Cloud City Software. Theres also TossTracker, a FREE service over on the www.dicecoach.com site. In addition, the message board has many members who are happy to assist those who might be a bit overwhelmed by doing data analysis.
The bottom line is this. Document your throws. Analyze the data. And youll get it done at the tables. Good luck!