Putting New Spins on
Old Systems
Someone
is always coming up with exotic plays based on due numbers, the law of
averages, or the law of large numbers.
Often these plays involve placing all of the box numbers on the layout
leaving that action up for a specific number of rolls, then taking it all down. Of course, the seven is the killer on that action. You can risk $64 across in an effort to win, say,
$14 - $18 a toss for two or three tosses, then bring it all down. Of course, thats rarely what happens. More frequently player discipline fails and the
bets stay up for the third, fourth, or fifth roll before the seven shows and takes them
down for you. Perhaps you win $7 - $14 net
when its all said and done. Or maybe
the seven shows early and you find yourself down $50 - $64 right off the bat. When that happens most people quickly reevaluate
their strategy and try to find a less expensive way to cover all of the numbers. The Anything but Seven strategy known by
some as the Iron Cross is one of the most popular.
Lets take a look at it.
The
ABS system calls for the player to place the five, six and eight in combination with a
Field bet. This combination of wagers not
only covers the box numbers, it also covers the horn numbers. Placed in the right denomination every roll
will yield some sort of win. Lets
assume were using $10 units. Your wager
will be $34 inside no nine plus a $10 wager in the Field. If the five, six, or eight roll youll
collect $14 on the place action but lose $10 on the Field bet. Net gain - $4.
If any other box number or the eleven roll youll collect $10. If the two or twelve roll youll collect $20
or perhaps $30 if the casino triples the field on either of these numbers. Every roll is a winner except when the
seven shows. Then you drop $44. Unfortunately, if you go by the math of the game
youll discover that the seven shows up early and often enough to make this system a
loser the majority of the time.
In
order to avoid the long-term exposure to the seven some players bypass the come out roll
and bet on all of the place numbers for one roll only. Lets say youre using $5
units. You bet $5 each on the four, five,
nine, and ten, and place the six and eight for $6 each.
Youre total action will be $32 across.
On your one roll of the dice youll either win $9 on the four or ten ,
or $7 on the inside numbers. However, theres
still a one-in-six chance you'll lose all $32 if the seven rolls. And if that happens, you have to win five more
decisions just to get back even.
Heres
an interesting variation for folks who want a shot at a one roll win. With this strategy you place all of the box
numbers before the come out roll and have them working. But you also play a Pass Line bet to hedge your
working action. Lets take a look at it
playing $10 units.
Prior
to the come-out drop $64 on the table and tell the dealer you want $64 across
working. Then you play a $65 Pass Line bet. If any point number rolls youll win from $14
to $18, depending on the point established. If
a seven rolls you win $1 net. Nothing wrong
with that. But if a point number rolled youre
stuck with a $65 contract bet on the Pass Line. What
do you do about that? Well, lets
think about it. After you net out the
previous win you have $51 at risk to the seven.
Lets assume the point established is the six. Is there a way we can hedge that $51 at risk on
the five? Absolutely. You can lay the six for $75. Now what is the worst that can happen? IF the six rolls you win $65 on the Pass Line
but lose $75 on the lay for a combined $10 loss.
However, since you collected $14 earlier on the come out roll you are a net
$4 winner for the series. If the seven should
show you would lose the $65 on the pass line but win $60 on the dont pass
a net $5 loss until you factor in the earlier come-out win. Do the math and you turn out to be a net $9
winner for the series.
A
heck of a lot of work for a $4 - $9 win, huh? Especially
since theres another fly in the ointment. Our
initial $65 Pass Line bet was exposed to a potential loss at the hands of the two, three
or twelve craps. The cost to hedge that
too much over the long haul. Thats
the problem with hedge systems. You end up
hedging your hedges. Then things just get
silly.
Systems are fun to play around with, but the simple fact is that without influencing
the outcome of the roll there is no way to mathematically overcome the houses edge
at craps. Anyone who tells you there is
is wrong. Hedge bets may feel like
they soften the blow of a loss, but by and large they dont work. The smart play?
Play within your bankroll, practice good money management and discipline,
limit your hedges, and focus on the bets with the lowest house edge the Pass or Dont
Pass, and placing the six and eight.
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